As a student of the Middle east I can tell you that a lifetime could be spent analyzing the region and still be just as confused as you were when you started…..the NY Times has shown just how confusing it can be…….(I am not sure that I agree totally with their assumptions)……the time is now to learn about the situation so Americans do not go into another war we do not need……
Iran
and the
United States
- Have been enemies since 1979 and remain highly antagonistic on most issues
- Back opposite sides in the Syrian conflict
… but …
- Have a major common interest in the survival of the Maliki government in Iraq and the defeat of the Sunni extremist militias
United States
and
the Gulf Monarchies, including Saudi Arabia
- Are longstanding allies, sharing an interest in containing Iran
- Back the opposition to the Assad government in Syria
… but …
- The monarchies are hostile to the American-backed, Shiite-dominated Maliki government in Iraq
- Gulf money has financed jihadist fighters in Syria and Iraq that the United States wants no part of
Turkey
and the
Iraqi Kurds
- Have developed extensive commercial relations
- Have agreed to cooperate in Syria
… but …
- The Turks are wary of Kurdish gains in Iraq, for fear that it will prompt a flare-up of Kurdish separatism in Turkey
- The Kurds are deeply suspicious of Turkish intervention in Iraq
The Kurds
and the
Maliki Government
- Are at odds over boundaries, oil revenue and the Kurds’ goal of independence
- Have sectarian differences (most Kurds are Sunnis)
… but …
- Share an interest in preventing a Sunni militant takeover of either Iraq or Syria
- Have cooperated tactically against Sunni militant fighters
The Gulf Monarchies
and the
Sunni Insurgents
- Have a common enemy in the Assad government in Syria
- Share antipathy for Shiite rule and Iranian influence in Iraq and the region
… but …
- The monarchies consider ISIS and its goal of a hard-line caliphate too extreme and a threat
- The insurgents consider the monarchies corrupt and irreligious
There you have some of the situations that make it as confusing as confusing can get……..at this point I can see NO logical answers that could calm this situation down…….too many players with too many interests for this to end well……Iraq may well be doomed as a separate country.
Nicely summed up Chuq. If Bush had listened to the Dick Cheney in 1994 instead of the 2003 version we would not have fucked this whole thing up from the beginning.
and then there is our dynamite intel team……will write more on that later…..