Iraq is bursting at the seams…..violence is taking over….and everyone and i mean everyone has an opinion on what to do….but the question should be asked….is anyone thinking of what cold happen to the country of Iraq?

US does not not have a plan………Iran has a plan but will it fly in the West?  The Arab world is quaking in their shoes…..whatever they do could be wrong……….the rest of the world would rather go back to Ukraine…….

I know most Americans could care less….that is unless they can get something that they can insult the prez over…….but what could happen?

In a piece written by Kaiwon Bahroz, a political analyst for Middle East News sees several scenarios for the country….these are……

1. Baghdad is conquered by ISIL
This is the worst of all possible outcomes. It will result in protracted and bloody street fighting between various militias including ISIL. Such an outcome would also be a political nightmare for Barack Obama, making it even harder to convince Americans that their engagement in Iraq is over. The U.S. may be forced to consider whether they will have to intervene directly. In that case we face an Iraq War phase two.

The probability of a conquest of Baghdad is not great. ISIL is admittedly strong and probably has 10,000 prospective soldiers and jihadists they can draw on. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in turn has limited control and loyalty in the new Iraqi army, and the army is poorly trained, as we have seen in Mosul. But in and around Baghdad, Maliki is still strong. He has control over his own forceful sjiamilitser, and the armies have a lot of weapons.

2. Attacks against Kurdish areas
Another scenario is that ISIL might try to attack the autonomous Kurdistan (KRG) in the north. But the question is whether ISIL will waste its power on this.

Kurds lack the kind of weapons that allows them to be sure to keep ISIL away. Kurds fear this, and on Thursday they even went into the big oil hub of Kirkuk to prevent ISIL from attacking the city.

One possible outcome is that the Kurds will declare their own state, with Kirkuk as its capital, as a counterbalance to the chaos in the south. If the situation continues on the current track, the Kurds could seek international support for this venture, which still wouldn’t solve the problem in Iraq.

3. Baghdad strikes back militarily
That is what we are now experiencing. Baghdad has carried out air strikes, and the U.S. might use drones and/or aircraft. Air strikes will not be able to force ISIL away. Maliki therefore hopes to use the fear of ISIL to build a common front where the Iraqi Army, Kurdish Peshmerga and Shiite militias together try to drive ISIL back. Would such an alliance defeat ISIL?

Assad in Syria is unable to remove the jihadists although he is militarily superior. Maliki is therefore totally dependent on the former Sunni insurgent groups that have so far withstood him. A win against ISIL therefore requires a political reconciliation process in Iraq that no one other than the U.S. can guarantee. But Obama has so far been passive and focused on negotiations with Iran. Iran has no desire for increased U.S. involvement or to get the Sunnis back into a more powerful role in Iraqi politics.

4. Designated caliphate in parts of Iraq and Syria
This is ISIL’s real main goal. They want to establish a caliphate crisscrossing the border between Syria and Iraq. ISIL is a dogmatic opponent of state boundaries in the Middle East as they were drawn up after the First World War. ISIS has previously declared minor areas of Iraq as a caliphate and can do this again. Yet, their ability to maintain control over large areas over a long time is still limited.

The group lacks local support in almost every location. The solution lies in a genuine peace process between the Shia government in Baghdad and Iraq’s Sunni outcasts. Here the U.S. has a key role because they can put pressure on the regime in Baghdad. The alternative is prolonged chaos and an enduring focal point for a new generation of regional and international terrorism – something that will give the debate in the U.S. about intervention new life.

5. Chaos and prolonged civil war
This is the most probable outcome. Iraq is currently, in practice, no longer a state. As of the war in 2003, Iraq has gone from being an authoritarian dictatorship under Saddam’s total control, to something that strongly resembles the fragmented and stateless Afghanistan.

Neither Maliki nor the Americans were joined by the great part of Iraq that was pushed out when Saddam fell. Instead, the Sunnis have been suppressed. This has allowed for a strong ISIL and made much of Iraq an unclaimed and chaotic place. Unlike in Afghanistan, the troubled areas extend all the way up to the shores of the Mediterranean and the edge of Europe, absorbing angry and radicalized youth from across the Middle East and the West.

There you have 5 scenarios that could change the face of the Middle East and it could all begin to happen in Iraq.

Personally, Iraqis need to sort their problems out for themselves……they wanted us gone in 2012 and now Maliki wants our help……he needs to get a grip……the Sunnis are Iraqis too…..to treat them otherwise is not something we should support……..