Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and hard-line rival Benjamin Netanyahu both claimed victory Tuesday in Israel‘s parliamentary election, but official results showed a race so close it could be decided by a third candidate — a rising power among the hawks.

Right-wing parties — including Netanyahu’s Likud Party — appear to have won a clear majority of 65 seats in the 120-seat parliament, which would give Netanyahu the upper hand in forming the next government.

However, with 99 percent of the votes counted, Livni’s centrist Kadima Party had 28 seats, while Likud had 27. Those results could change by a seat or two — enough to alter the outcome — when soldiers’ votes are tallied Thursday evening.

The winner of the election wasn’t clear in part because Livni could try to form a coalition with hawkish parties. It appeared ultranationalist Avigdor Lieberman, who based his campaign on denying citizenship to Israeli Arabs he considers disloyal, could single-handedly determine the country’s next leader with his decision of whom to join.

He declared after the vote that he spoken to both Livni and Netanyahu and told them he could be persuaded to join either one, but he added that he wanted a “nationalist right-wing government.”

Whoever comes out on top, the political wrangling was likely to drag on for weeks, and with it the fate of international Mideast peace efforts.

A government led by Netanyahu, who opposes concessions to the Palestinians, could put Israel and the U.S. on a collision course. Netanyahu says he would allow West Bank settlements to expand and is seen as likely to contemplate military action against Iran.

Even if Livni could overcome the formidable obstacles and become Israel’s second female prime minister after Golda Meir, she would almost certainly be hindered by right-wing coalition partners opposed to her vision of giving up land in exchange for a peace deal with the Palestinians.

The partial results gave Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu Party 16 seats, placing it in third place behind Kadima and Likud — and ahead of Labor, the party that ruled Israel for decades. That gives Lieberman a key role in coalition building.

Lieberman said his party’s strong showing means he holds the key to forming the new Israeli government. Lieberman could serve in a Livni government because he is not a classic hawk who rejects any compromise with the Palestinians. Like Livni, he favors giving up parts of the West Bank. Lieberman and Livni converge on other issues that could for a basis for cooperation.

There will be weeks of crazy backstage dancing to come up with a ruling coalition.