Tag: Persian Gulf

What’s Next?

The proposed ceasefire talks with Iran did not take (few of us thought it would) and now what fresh Hell awaits the region?

After Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan with no nuclear agreement and few clear next steps, politically problematic options remain for the Trump administration. It could reopen extended negotiations over Iran’s nuclear future, the New York Times reports, or resume the attacks that have triggered the largest energy disruption in modern history. President Trump, who announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, has argued that Iran should now simply give in after enduring more than 13,000 strikes. But Tehran says the casualties and damage have only strengthened its resolve. The shaky two-week ceasefire expires April 21.

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf suggested the next step is up to the US, per the Washington Post. “America has understood our logic and principles, and now it’s time for it to decide whether it can earn our trust or not,” Ghalibaf posted on X. Any renewed conflict could worsen oil shortages, drive gasoline prices higher, deepen supply problems for products including fertilizers and semiconductors, and push inflation above its current 3.3%. Both governments claim victory from the first round of fighting—the US for its firepower, Iran for withstanding it—and neither side is signaling readiness to compromise.

One expert cautioned about the ceasefire, per Deutsche Welle. “The risk is gradual erosion,” said Fatemeh Aman of the Atlantic Council. “Local incidents, miscalculations, or actions by allied groups could test the limits of restraint. Without a follow-up diplomatic process, the ceasefire remains exposed. It may hold in the short term, but it lacks long-term stability.”

Donny’s newest threat for the conflict….a blockade…..

President Trump’s vow to use the US Navy to shut off Iran’s access to the Strait of Hormuz is pushing the six-week war into a more dangerous phase with major economic stakes, the Wall Street Journal reports. After US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed over Tehran’s nuclear program, Trump said the Navy will on Monday begin blockading the narrow waterway, inspecting ships that have paid Iran for passage, and clearing sea mines; he warned that any Iranian forces firing on US or commercial vessels would be “BLOWN TO HELL.” US Central Command says the blockade, which will begin at 10am Eastern time Monday, will be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations,” but that ships will be allowed to transit the strait if they are traveling between non-Iranian ports—a step back from Trump’s initial threat of a full blockade, the AP reports.

The Pentagon says the operation is feasible, but current and former officials who spoke to the Journal caution that keeping control of the strait—bordered by Iran and vital to global oil flows—will be far more complicated than launching the blockade. Iran’s regular navy has taken heavy losses, but the Revolutionary Guard still fields a large fleet of fast boats, drones, and mines that can harass or threaten US ships. Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery calls the effort “militarily manageable” but said Washington will likely need partners.

The economic fallout is already spreading. With Iran having previously choked traffic through Hormuz, factories in parts of Asia are cutting output, some gas stations there are rationing fuel, and some airports in Europe and Asia are running low on jet fuel. Analysts estimate about 13 million barrels a day of Gulf oil—or roughly 12% of global supply—has been knocked offline; a successful effort to halt Iran’s remaining exports could remove another 2 million barrels daily.

Trump and his advisers argue the blockade is needed to end what they call Iranian “extortion” and to prevent Tehran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. The White House says “numerous countries” will join the effort, though key European and Gulf governments have signaled their participation may depend on a broader ceasefire and an international mandate. Iran, buoyed by recent oil revenue, still holds leverage: it could target Saudi and UAE pipelines that bypass Hormuz or use allied groups to threaten other chokepoints, such as the Bab al-Mandeb off Yemen—raising the possibility of a drawn-out test of endurance between Tehran and a global economy already under strain. Experts who spoke to Reuters echoed those who spoke to the Journal, noting a blockade of the strait is an act of war that could bring retaliation from Iran, and is unlikely to help with US gas prices.

There you have just what is waiting for us on the horizon…..will Donny jump or will calmer heads prevail?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Now It Is The Straight Of Hormuz

Dear Donny has said there will be a 5 day lull in the airstrikes on Iran…..why?  He announced that the US and Iran are in talks….(personally I think this was to appease his buddies on Wall Street)….

President Trump on Monday extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, saying the US would hold off on strikes against Iranian power plants for five days, per the AP. Dow futures jumped 1,000 points, and crude prices fell on the news, reports CNBC. Trump made the announcement on Truth Social hours ahead of his self-imposed deadline later in the day. Writing in all-caps, he said the US and Iran have had “very good and productive conversations” that could yield “a complete and total resolution” in the war. Talks would continue “throughout the week,” he said.

Trump added that the suspension of his threat to attack power plants was “subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.” Trump did not elaborate on the negotiations that had taken place. Iran did not immediately acknowledge any talks between the countries, but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi did say he spoke by phone with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan. Turkey has been an intermediary before in negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

No details just Donny’s worthless word of talks….and the markets went berserk up 10000 points(go figure)

And then Iran weighed in…..

A cautious relief swept through financial markets Monday after President Trump said the United States has talked with Iran about a possible end to the war. Oil prices eased, and stock prices rose on Wall Street following severe losses taken elsewhere in the world before Trump’s announcement.

  • The S&P 500 rose 74.52 points, or 1.1%, to 6,581.00.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 631 points, or 1.4%, to 46,208.47.
  • The Nasdaq composite rose 299.15 points, or 1.4%, to 21,946.76.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude fell 10.9% to settle at $99.94, down from nearly $120 at one point last week, after Trump said the United States and Iran held productive talks the last two days “regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” the AP reports. The market’s moves were tentative, though, after Iran denied such talks took place and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said in a post on X that fake news “is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets.”

The Dow went from a surge of nearly 1,135 points during the morning to a much more modest gain. Over the weekend, Trump had threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it doesn’t open up the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Trump said Monday that he is postponing attacks on Iranian power plants for five days to allow talks to continue. Quickly afterward, though, came the denials from Iran about talks, while Iran’s semiofficial Fars and Tasnim news agencies portrayed the American president as backing down. Turkey and Egypt, meanwhile, said they had spoken to the warring parties, the first sign of coordinated mediation, which could be an encouraging signal.

  • The price of Brent crude fell as low as $96 immediately after Trump announced the postponement but quickly recovered a chunk of that loss. Benchmark US crude had a similar reaction, immediately dropping toward $84 per barrel before yo-yoing back above $92 and then settling at $88.13, down 10.3% from Friday.

On Wall Street, companies with big fuel bills that will benefit from any easing of oil prices led the market. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings surged 6.2%, while United Airlines climbed 4.5%, and American Airlines rose 3.6%. All, though, are still down for the year so far. Stocks of smaller companies were also particularly strong, and the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks jumped a market-leading 2.3%. It had dropped last week to 10% below its record, a sharp enough fall that professional investors have a name for it: a “correction.”

In Europe, stock indexes immediately flipped from losses to gains following Trump’s announcement. France’s CAC 40 rose 0.8%, and Germany’s DAX returned 1.2%. That compares with sharp drops for Asian stock markets, which finished trading before Trump made his announcement. South Korea’s Kospi careened 6.5% lower, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 3.5%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 3.5%.

All this after Donny made the statement that if the Straight was not fully functioning in 48 hours there would be consequences….

Iran is warning it will choke off one of the world’s most important oil routes if the US follows through on a new threat, CNN reports. The country’s armed forces headquarters said Sunday it is prepared to shut the Strait of Hormuz “completely” and for an indefinite period if US President Trump orders strikes on Iranian power plants. The statement came a day after Trump said he would direct attacks on Iran’s power infrastructure if the narrow waterway—through which a significant share of global oil shipments passes—is not fully reopened to shipping within 48 hours

Iran’s military said the strait would remain closed until any damaged plants are restored, and broadened its warning beyond the US. It threatened to hit Israeli energy and communications networks, referring to Israel as an “occupying regime,” per the AP, as well as “similar companies in the region with US shareholders.” Power plants in countries that host American bases “will be legitimate targets for us,” the headquarters said. Early Monday, Israel launched new attacks against Iran, the AP reports, and the top leader of the US military’s Central Command described the joint campaign against Iran as “ahead or on plan.” Meanwhile, Trump spoke to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer about the need to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened in a late-night call Sunday, CNN reports.

Is Donny trying to dodge another bullet?

Meanwhile those talks that Donny pounced on……

World markets remained in an upbeat mood on Monday after President Trump postponed a major escalation of the Iran war and said the two sides were engaged in “productive” talks to end the conflict. Much uncertainty remained about those talks. Coverage:

  • Trump said son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff were leading the US negotiations with a “respected” Iranian leader, reports the AP. He did not say who that leader is, adding that it would be dangerous for the man to be identified, though he specified that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was not involved.
  • Axios, quoting an Israeli official, reports the Iranian figure might be the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. However, Ghalibaf wrote on X that “no negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”
  • The New York Times reports that Iran, “at least publicly,” is denying any progress. The nation’s Fars News Agency quotes an unnamed senior Iranian official who said much the same as Ghalibaf: “Trump backed down from attacking critical infrastructure as Iran’s military threats became credible,” he said, per the Hill. “Financial market pressure and the threat of bonds within the US and the West have increased, and this has been another important factor in this retreat.”

A ‘respected leader’……who would that be?    Some rug salesman in Southern California?

This is all so much con….period!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

What About The Saudi-Iranian Mash Up?

Whatever happen to the brewing war in the Persian Gulf?

A week begins and this situation is a distant memory.

Just last month we were on the brink of an all out war (we seem to always be on the brink these days) with Iran over the Persian Gulf incidents…..and attack on a Saudi refinery and one on ma Saudi ship….

Saudi Arabia said on Monday that two of its oil tankers were among those attacked off the coast of the United Arab Emirates and described it as an attempt to undermine the security of crude supplies amid tensions between the United States and Iran.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-tankers-fujairah/saudi-oil-tankers-among-those-attacked-off-uae-amid-iran-tensions-idUSKCN1SJ088

With the situation between the Saudis and the Iranians it is always a tit for tat……and so it was recently…an Iranian tanker has been attacked…..

Two missiles struck an Iranian tanker traveling through the Red Sea off the coast of Saudi Arabia Friday, Iranian officials said, the latest incident in the region amid months of heightened tensions between Tehran and the US. Saudi officials didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment, per the AP. The state-run IRNA news agency, quoting Iran’s National Iranian Tanker Co., identified the stricken vessel as the Sabiti. Iranian state TV said the explosion damaged two storerooms aboard the oil tanker and caused an oil leak into the Red Sea near Jiddah. The leak was later stopped, per IRNA. “This latest incident, if confirmed to be an act of aggression, is highly likely to be part of the wider narrative of deteriorating relations between [the Saudis] and the US and Iran,” private maritime security firm Dryad Maritime warned.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi described the incident as an “attack” carried out by those committing “dangerous adventurism.” In a statement, Mousavi said the Sabiti was struck twice in the span of a half-hour and that an investigation was underway. “The oil tanker … sustained damages to the body when it was hit by missiles,” IRNA said. The agency didn’t say whom Iranian officials suspect of launching the missiles. Images released by Iran’s Petroleum Ministry appeared to show no visible damage to the Sabiti visible from its bridge, though they didn’t show the ship’s sides. A spokesman for the US Navy’s 5th Fleet overseeing the Mideast said authorities there were “aware of reports of this incident,” but he declined to comment further.

Tit For Tat!

The president and his troubles with the legal stuff has overshadowed a news report that should have been a headline……Iran and Saudis hold talks….

the Saudis appear to be resigned to the fact that they just aren’t starting that war. Their fallback plan, it seems, is to now try to get some indirect negotiations going with Iran to reduce tensions, after spending years bringing those tensions to a boiling point.

Exactly how this process got going is unclear, put Iraqi and Pakistani officials say they were brought into the matter by the Saudi Crown Prince, and both are now intending to serve as mediators for the indirect talks.

Iran is on board for the effort, but Saudi officials, despite being reported to have started the whole thing, are now saying they’re considering the idea, but want to make sure everyone thinks Iraq and Pakistan are acting unilaterally, and they never approached anyone.

An official Saudi statement also insists that since the escalation was all the fault of Iran, they need to begin de-escalation, and that it’s not up to the Saudis to do that. This is in keeping with the Saudis’ stance of trying to provoke every action in the Middle East, but also keep up a narrative where they didn’t actually do anything, and just react to everything that happens.

And while the Saudis usually turn to the US to drive whatever policy they want, it is noteworthy that the US seems uninvolved in this peace process. It seems even the Saudis are well aware that the US isn’t a nation to try to use to make peace.

(antiwar.com)

This should have been a lead story since if these talks are successful then the war drums would be silenced and the the humanitarian crisis and war in Yemen could be negotiated to a halt.

This should have been the story of the week.

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

 

Is It Is Or Is It Ain’t?

If you have been paying attention to the news these days then you will know that we may be inching closer to a war with Iran……..

Pompeo has gone on the Tube and accused Iran of an attack on tankers in the Persian Gulf….without any proof other than his word……the problem there is that the captain of one of the attacked tankers does not agree with Pompeo….

The owner of the Japanese tanker that was attacked on Thursday in the Gulf of Oman, the Kokuka Outrageous, contradicted the US military’s claims about the attack. Central Command reported that the two tankers were hit with limpet mines, a type of mine that is attached to the hull of a ship below the waterline using magnets. But Yutaka Katada, the owner of the Kokuka Outrageous, said he received reports a projectile hit the ship.

“We received reports that something flew towards the ship,” Katada said at a press conference, “The place where the projectile landed was significantly higher than the water level, so we are absolutely sure that this wasn’t a torpedo. I do not think there was a time bomb or an object attached to the side of the ship.”

(antiwar.com)

All this reminds me of the 1980s…..the old “Tanker Wars”……

Mysterious attacks on oil tankers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz this week show how one of the world’s crucial chokepoints for global energy supplies can be easily targeted, 30 years after the U.S. Navy and Iran were entangled in a similarly shadowy conflict called the “Tanker War.”

While the current tensions are nowhere near the damage done then, it underscores how dangerous the situation is and how explosive it can become.

The so-called “Tanker War” involved American naval ships escorting reflagged Kuwaiti oil tankers through the Persian Gulf and the strait after Iranian mines damaged vessels in the region. It culminated in a one-day naval battle between Washington and Tehran, and also saw America accidentally shoot down an Iranian passenger jet, killing 290 people.

https://www.apnews.com/ceb6e7a86bf14a9a8d8ecf81c9dcc7ef

Plus the MSM has been hyping the incident to fan the flames of war….trying to get the public lathered up so they will fully support an illegal war….

If there were any lingering hopes that the corporate media learned from its role in perpetuating the lies that led to the 2003 invasion of Iraq and would never again help start a Middle East war on the basis of false or flimsy evidence, the headlines that blared across the front pages of major U.S. news websites Thursday night indicated that such hopes were badly misplaced.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/06/14/think-us-media-wont-help-lead-nation-war-iran-based-flimsy-or-false-intelligence

It is getting so bad that Pompeo even blames Iran for attacks by the Taleban….

In the violence in Kabul broached by Pompeo, the Taliban claimed responsibility for a suicide bomb attack on a U.S.convoy on May 31 that killed four Afghan pedestrians and wounded four American servicemen and at least three civilians. Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid boasted of the attack in a phone call with The Associated Press.

But on Thursday, as Pompeo slammed Iran, he called the Kabul bombing one of “a series of attacks instigated by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its surrogates against American and allied interests,” the Post reported.

The characterization of the Kabul attack as linked to Iran surprised experts and a former U.S. diplomat, the Post reported. Besides the Taliban’s claim of responsibility, they said it would be unusual for Iran to launch an attack inside Kabul.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/tanker-attacks-iran-pompeo-taliban_n_5d0581b2e4b0dc17ef0aed60

These warmongers are itching for another fight and will use or blame whoever they must to get their war.

Closing Thought–14Jun19

Today is Flag Day…..a day when most Americans should spend some time a learn how to properly display the American flag.

Beyond a shadow of a doubt…the Iranians did it! (Pompeo and Bolton’s accusation)

We have had two more attacks in the Persian Gulf and as usual the US is blaming Iran……

Two tankers traveling through the Gulf of Oman were attacked on Thursday, forcing the crews to abandon the ships, and which left one of the ships on fire. One of the sailors was reported “slightly injured” in the incidents.

The ships were the Front Altair, a tanker owned by Frontline which was shipping naphtha to Taiwan, and the Kokuka Courageous, a ship owned by Japanese company Kokuka Sangyo, was transporting methanol to Singapore. They departed from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The ships were apparently hit with sea mines, potentially magnetic mines. The US Navy claimed to have seen an unexploded mine on one of the two ships. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other US officials immediately blamed Iran.

Pompeo’s declaration of Iran’s guilt was based chiefly on similar incidents happening in mid-May. John Bolton and Pompeo blamed Iran then, and since this was the same sort of thing, they blame Iran now. The problem is, they have offered no evidence Iran was responsible for the first incidents, let alone today’s, and are just tying them all together. Pompeo rattled off a list of things to blame Iran for, including multiple incidents that were done by Yemen’s Houthis, a rocket fired in Iraq that was never convincingly blamed on anyone, and an Afghanistan bombing that clearly was nothing to do with Iran at all.

(antiwar.com)

Where’s the evidence?

In a press conference that immediately evoked memories of the lead-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday claimed Iran was behind alleged attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman without presenting one single shred of evidence.

“This assessment is based on intelligence, the weapons used, the level of expertise needed to execute the operation, recent similar Iranian attacks on shipping, and the fact that no proxy group operating in the area has the resources and proficiency to act with such a high-degree of sophistication,” said Pompeo, who did not provide any details on the intelligence he cited.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/06/13/deja-vu-iraq-war-lies-mike-pompeo-blames-iran-tanker-attack-without-single-shred

Is this the same intel that our President refuses to accept elsewhere?

For me the question is…..The big questions are, as always, motive. Iran has no conceivable reason to attack such ships. 

Plus the Japanese ship is attacked while Japan’s Abe is on a state visit to Iran….again it smells like cow manure.

Just thinking out loud……

Remember The Gulf Of Tonkin?

I sincerely hope that all my American visitors had a great Memorial Day……

Back to work, Professor!

I’ll bet that if you are not an old fart then you have no idea what I mean by the title…..for you ‘younguns’…..

This was an attack by North Vietnam on two naval vessels cruising off their shores….and this incident lead to the mash up that cost 50,000+ American lives……

More information on the incident…..

https://youtu.be/HODxnUrFX6k

That is enough history for you….I bring this up because I said that the attacks on the tankers in the Persian Gulf smelled like a new “Tonkin Incident”…..

But to refresh your memory…..

With the US having signed off on another 1,500 ground troops being sent to the Middle East, some justification is needed. A top Pentagon official is relying on previous speculation to make this all look very official.

Vice Admiral Michael Gilday told reporters that the US has “very high confidence” that recent sabotage of oil tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates was done by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. He also claimed rockets recent fired ib Baghdad were fired by “Iranian proxies.“

(antiwar.com)

Then the president order more troops to the region….and now he, Trump, is using an unclear threat to help sell weapons, that the Congress has said no to, to the Saudis and their lackeys…..

In a move predicted earlier this week by members of Congress, President Trump has declared a “national emergency” for the sole reason of circumventing Congressional restrictions on arms sales, and using it to rush shipments of arms to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Under the Arms Export Control Act, Congress is supposed to get a 30 day notice ahead of any sales, and can then block shipments. Concerns about war crimes in Yemen mean Saudi arms would be likely to face some effort to block them.

But the law has a loophole in it, which allows the president to declare an “emergency” of any sort he wants, with no oversight on that declaration, and then send the arms over without Congressional notification.

This is a notoriously cheap way to circumvent Congress on arms exports, but several Senators said they expected Trump to make such a move as soon as next week. It appears he decided to get out in front of that move with a declaration on Friday going into the holiday weekend.

Officially, the “national emergency” is tensions with Iran, though several in Congress have pointed out that the US has had nonstop tensions with Iran for decades, and that’s not a reason to suddenly declare a new emergency.

(antiwar.com)

We have an emergency according to Trump…..The Trump administration on Friday invoked a rarely used provision in federal law to bypass congressional review of arms sales to Saudi Arabia, citing threats the kingdom faces from Iran. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo notified Congress of the decision to use an emergency loophole in the Arms Export Control Act to move ahead with sales of $7 billion in precision guided munitions, other bombs and ammunition and aircraft maintenance support to Saudi Arabia, along with the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, without lawmakers’ approval. Pompeo said, the AP reports, “that an emergency exists which requires the immediate sale” of the weapons “to deter further the malign influence of the government of Iran throughout the Middle East region.” He said the transfers “must occur as quickly as possible in order to deter further Iranian adventurism.”  (If anybody can recognize “adventurism” it is the American war machine….we have been committing it for over 5 decades)…….

So the weapons could be sold….the State Department withheld info from Congress……

The US State Department missed a deadline today to explain to the heads of multiple Congressional committees why the Iran section of their arms control report contradicted all available information from US intelligence agencies.

The report came out in mid-April, and was immediately contested by a number of officials. Intelligence officials said the report was “skewed” in such a way as to justify military action against Iran. They also said that the text indicated that the State Department had totally ignored all intelligence assessments on Iran, and just wrote the report in a way that would fit the narrative.

At the time, the State Department refused to address the allegations from other officials, and claimed the report included “all relevant information,” suggesting they didn’t consider intelligence reports that didn’t agree with the conclusion they were supposed to come up with relevant enough to mention.

Ignoring Congressional calls for clarification is a growing problem throughout the administration. Repeatedly, the administration has been given direct questions by Congress, or members thereof, with specific deadlines, and just let those deadlines go with neither a response, nor an explanation as to why they didn’t respond.

(antiwar.com)

Could it be missed because the intel will not confirm that lie being sold?

A piece of evidence in the Trump administration’s case against Iran may be less than it seems.

The Trump administration announced Friday that it is sending 1,500 new troops to the Persian Gulf and authorizing new arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in order to counter a rising Iranian threat in the region. But satellite images provided exclusively to The Daily Beast by the company Planet Labs show that a component of the administration’s description of Iran’s aggressive behavior—an apparent positioning of Iranian missiles onto boats—may not be as clear in commercial imagery as anonymous administration officials claimed it to be in statements to other publications.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/satellite-images-raise-questions-about-iran-threat-experts-say

Sorry, but I have heard all this before….and it did not end well for 50,000+ Americans…..we cannot let it happen yet again!

Who Wants This War?

Well unless you hide during the day under a rock then you are aware of how close the US and Iran maybe to a war……personally, I do ot think it is a good idea but then I am an antiwar person and cannot see too many wars as a good thing.

But ask yourself….just who is it that wants this war?

Trump and the Secstate and NatSec adviser do not seem to be on the same page….so who wants this?

Speaking on state TV of the prospect of a war in the Gulf, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei seemed to dismiss the idea.

“There won’t be any war. …We don’t seek a war, and [the Americans] don’t either. They know it’s not in their interests.”

The ayatollah’s analysis is correct. Consider the consequences of a war with the United States for Iran.

Iran’s hundreds of swift boats and handful of submarines would be sunk. Its ports would be mined or blockaded. Oil exports and oil revenue would halt. Airfields and missile bases would be bombed. The Iranian economy would crash. Iran would need years to recover.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/who-wants-this-war-with-iran/
 
But not to worry….the Speaker of the House said that the Congress have not voted for war….

The Trump administration does not have congressional authorization to go to war against Iran, the Democratic leader of the U.S. House of Representatives warned on Thursday amid escalating tensions in the region.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters that she backed what appeared to be U.S. President Donald Trump’s aversion to actual military conflict with Tehran.

“I like what I hear from the president — that he has no appetite on this,” she said. The Washington Post, citing several unnamed U.S. officials, reported late Wednesday that Trump was frustrated that his advisers may be rushing into war and that he preferred a more diplomatic approach and direct talks with Iran.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-iran-congress/u-s-house-speaker-congress-has-not-approved-war-against-iran-idUKKCN1SM1WA

Really?  The Congress has not thought it important enough to vote on any war since the invasion of Afghanistan….so what makes me think they will have any say whatsoever in whether we go to war with Iran or not?

Besides they, the Congress, cannot stop a war any way….look at the failure with the Yemen conflict….the Congress has become a toothless tiger.

Neocons Chest Thumping

The news these days is how close the US is coming to a shooting war with Iran…..but it is not the first time in recent history……

https://lobotero.com/2006/12/27/how-will-an-iranian-war-begin/

https://lobotero.com/2015/04/16/a-really-bad-idea-a-limited-war-with-iran-the-national-interest/

Keep in mind that the architect of the 2003 invasion of Iraq on false information was John Bolton, among others…..and now he is in a position that gives him more influence than in 2003……

All I can say is…here we go again!

An Iraq-War redux is now in full play, with leading roles played by some of the same protagonists – President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, for example, who says he still thinks attacking Iraq was a good idea. Co-starring is Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

The New York Times on Tuesday played its accustomed role in stoking the fires, front-paging a report that, at Bolton’s request, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan has come up with an updated plan to send as many as 120,000 troops to the Middle East, should Iran attack American forces or accelerate work on nuclear weapons. The Times headline writer, at least, thought it appropriate to point to echoes from the past: “White House Reviews Military Plans Against Iran, in Echoes of Iraq War.”

Pretexts for an Attack on Iran

John Bolton is in “Wonderland” at this time……

John Bolton has a Haig-sized ego. (one must be an old fart to appreciate the Haig reference) He aspires to control the ebb and flow of foreign policy in the Trump administration. He is often at odds with his colleagues from the State Department and Pentagon. And he is dealing with a president who, if not asleep much of the time, is only intermittently focused on national security issues.

Recently, Bolton too seemed to have his “I’m in control here” moment. With the conflict intensifying in Venezuela, the national security advisor leaked the opposition plan for the army to defect en masse from the Maduro government in favor of challenger Juan Guiado. Bolton’s tweets reportedly angered President Trump, who felt “boxed into a corner,” particularly after the defections didn’t materialize and Nicolas Maduro did not flee the country.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/05/16/bolton-in-wonderland/

Time for all parties to step back and think what they are doing. Once the “brink” has been breached then coming back becomes much more difficult.

Perhaps these actions are a prelude to negotiations: the U.S. is exerting “maximum pressure”, it says, to bring a more compliant Iran back to the table; in like manner, should Tehran conclude that it has no choice but to reach a new deal with Washington in order to relieve unsustainable economic strain, it will want to enter such talks with a stronger hand. Resuming its nuclear activities, making its presence felt in the region, and disrupting Saudi or Emirati oil exports could all be ways of enhancing its bargaining power. But if these manoeuvres are a diplomatic game, it is a dangerous one: either side could misinterpret the other’s intentions. Any Iranian move could easily lead to U.S. and/or Israeli strikes which, in turn, could lead to an Iranian counter-response. Or vice versa. Escalation comes easily; de-escalation is a much taller order, especially in the absence of direct channels of communication that can pre-empt misunderstandings or miscalculations.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/taking-us-and-iran-collision-course
 
This could become a major war since we have a president that sows chaos in his wake….this needs a steady hand and commonsense to prevent this from exploding.
 
But until then….the Neocons in Trumpland are trying to sell this as a “Just War”…….a Just War?
 
Just war theory deals with the justification of how and why wars are fought. The justification can be either theoretical or historical. The theoretical aspect is concerned with ethically justifying war and the forms that warfare may or may not take. The historical aspect, or the “just war tradition,” deals with the historical body of rules or agreements that have applied in various wars across the ages. For instance, international agreements such as the Geneva and Hague conventions are historical rules aimed at limiting certain kinds of warfare which lawyers may refer to in prosecuting transgressors, but it is the role of ethics to examine these institutional agreements for their philosophical coherence as well as to inquire into whether aspects of the conventions ought to be changed.
 
To me a Just War is a silly notion that only applies in a very limited reasons…..
 
And then we have those that a “Preventive War” is the only answer…..to that I say Bullshit!
 
The Neocons are working overtime to find a justification for a war……most are based on LIES and propaganda……PERIOD!

On The Road To War!

It seems that the advisers to the president are determined to get into a shooting war with Iran…..personally I do not think any of these accusations are true (that means they are LIES)…..apparently I am not alone…..

The narrative of an “increased threat” posed by Iran and its proxies across the Middle East is being used to justify a US military buildup and a general escalation of tensions in the area. British Maj. Gen. Chris Ghika, however, has raised serious doubts about that.

Maj. Gen. Ghika said that there has been “no increased threat from Iranian-backed forces,” despite the claims from US officials, mostly Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and John Bolton. Perhaps more damningly, Ghika says he does not believe there is any daylight between Britain’s assessment of “no increased threat” and the assessment from US intelligence.

In other words, the US officials are lying about the intelligence, presumably to justify the growing US buildup and to keep hyping the possibility of a war with Iran. US Central Command, however, angrily shot back contradicting Ghika, insisting his statement runs counter to established US position on the matter.

CENTCOM’s statement is not exactly a refutation of Ghika’s position on UK and US intelligence. Rather, it refers to “identified credible threats” but provides no indication where they came from. It clearly wasn’t intelligence agencies, because the threats were only made available to intelligence agencies after their identification.

Early reports on the “Iranian proxies” allegation suggested it came out of Israel, and that it was built around Israeli officials believing it would make sense for Iran to do that sort of thing to attack the US. This could suggest it was never verified by US or UK intelligence, and was rather just accepted as the official version because it fit with US policy at the time.

(antiwar.com)

US is fanning those flames vigorously…..(do not believe all the denials)…..these neocons want war……

The Sunday “sabotage” on oil tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates warrants a “thorough investigation,” according to US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia John Abizaid, who told reporters that he wants responses “short of war” to be taken.

Other officials indicated on Monday that they consider Iran the main suspect of the attack, though they have conceded that they don’t have any real evidence of this, let alone proof. Abizaid said starting a war over it would not be in the interest of Iran, the US, or Saudi Arabia.

Which is a potentially controversial position for the ambassador to take, given the ongoing US military buildup in the Middle East, centered around the idea of a war with Iran. Even if he believes this isn’t in America’s interest, nor justified on unproven allegations of sabotage, it seems to be the general direction the US is headed anyhow.

In particular, the idea of having a thorough investigation before the reaction is not the way the US has done things in recent years. At a time when hawks are lining up to call for action against Iran on any pretext, it is vital to hear the call to let cooler heads prevail.

(antiwar.com)

Filter out all the warmongering BS and think about one thing……this article was published in The American Conservative……

David French defends one of the great crimes of the 21st century:

Today is the 16th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, and Twitter is alive with condemnations of the conflict — countered by precious few defenses. Yet I believed the Iraq War was just and proper in 2003, and I still believe that today.

There is good reason that the Iraq war has “precious few defenders.” The Iraq war was a great crime and a massive blunder. Not only was it illegal under international law, but it was undeniably unjust according to any fair reading of just war theory. Our government did not have just cause to invade Iraq and overthrow its government. Preventive war can never be justified, because it can never be just to strike first against another country because you fear what their government might one day do to you. That is simply aggression committed out of irrational fear. To say that you still think 16 years later that invading Iraq is “just and proper” is to admit that you don’t know what those words mean.

Preventive War Is Always Unjust

The “Just War Theory”? 

A confusing thing but as usual I can help……Just war theory deals with the justification of how and why wars are fought. The justification can be either theoretical or historical.

https://www.iep.utm.edu/justwar/

In this world today, the 21st century in case there is any confusion) war does not make sense….the only people to gain are those that make the weapons of destruction.

We Americans have allowed too many wars in our name…..all the deaths are in our name…..and what does anyone gain?

****Breaking News******

News came out after I had written this draft for post today……

The US Embassy in Iraq says the State Department has ordered all non-essential, non-emergency government staff to leave the country right away amid escalating tensions with Iran. The security alert, published on the embassy’s website on Wednesday, comes after Washington last week said it had detected new and urgent threats from Iran and its proxy forces in the region targeting Americans and American interests. On Sunday, the embassy advised Americans to avoid travel to Iraq, citing “heightened tensions.”

And the world waits!

I Have Been Waiting For The Next Shoe!

Shades of the Gulf of Tonkin……..

2002–Deja vu…all over again.

Whenever the US starts down a path to war they have to make the case for the public to support a war……Iraq there was the search for yellow cake uranium (which was a lie)…..and the US seems to be thumping that chest again…this time in the Horn of Africa……

I did not wait long for that shoe to drop with the mash-up with Iran……

The United Arab Emirates said Sunday that four commercial ships off its eastern coast “were subjected to sabotage operations,” hours after Iranian and Lebanese media outlets aired false reports of explosions at a nearby Emirati port. Emirati officials declined to say who might have been responsible, the AP reports. However, the US has warned ships that “Iran or its proxies” could be targeting maritime traffic in the region; America is deploying an aircraft carrier and B-52 bombers to the Persian Gulf to counter alleged threats from Tehran. Tensions have risen since President Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, restoring American sanctions that have pushed Iran’s economy into crisis. Last week, Iran warned it would begin enriching uranium at higher levels in 60 days if world powers failed to renegotiate the deal.

The UAE statement put the ships near the country’s territorial waters in the Gulf of Oman, east of the port of Fujairah. It said that it was investigating the incident “in cooperation with local and international bodies” and that there were “no injuries or fatalities on board the vessels” and “no spillage of harmful chemicals or fuel.” Earlier Sunday, Lebanon’s pro-Iran satellite channel Al-Mayadeen, quoting “Gulf sources,” falsely reported a series of explosions at Fujairah’s port. State and semi-official media in Iran picked up the reports, citing Al-Mayadeen, which later published the names of vessels it claimed were involved. The AP found the reports about an explosion to be unsubstantiated

Bam! That shoe has dropped!

But happened?

With the US military buildup in the area around Iran, hawks both within the administration and elsewhere in the region suspect that it might not take much to sucker the US into starting a war. Something oil tanker related might do it.

A pair of Saudi oil tankers have been reported to have been “sabotaged” off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. What actually happened is unclear. Officials are only saying sabotage and not elaborating on what happened to the ships or how.

Officials are investigating, however, and with all the talk of undermining international security, the public is meant to suspect that the Iranian government did it, whatever “it” actually was, because the US has been warning Iran that they’d better not do something.

Does appear as Trump and his Boyz are wanting the crisis to escalate……

This week, one year after President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, relations between Washington and Tehran approached a crisis, with an American carrier strike force headed for the Persian Gulf and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo making a sudden trip to Baghdad to consult with Iraqi officials. In fact, precipitating a crisis was the point of the administration’s strategy; the question now is how well they manage it.

Pulling out of the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was not just an attempt to dismantle a cornerstone of President Obama’s legacy. Nor was it fundamentally a disagreement about how to constrain Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program, though prominent hard-liners in the Trump administration surely hated the agreement. Instead it was a long-shot bet that a U.S.-imposed economic embargo just short of war could bring Tehran to its knees, forcing a fundamental change in the Iranian regime’s policy, or even regime change itself.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-got-the-crisis-he-wanted-in-iran-now-what-173946309.html

Making the case…..it is so typical something I have seen and heard for decades……the government wanting a “WAR” and set about making the case for the conflict and to get the American people to go along with the ride.

Is America ready for the Bolton/Pompeo war with Iran?

National Security Advisor John Bolton’s announcement this week that the U.S. is deploying a carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the U.S. Central Command region seemed perfectly framed to put America on a war footing with Iran. And it is.

Claiming that the decision was made in response to “a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings,” Bolton declared that “the United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime.” But, he added, “we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces.”

Is America Ready for John Bolton’s War With Iran?

I am kinda hoping that this situation is all a ploy to get the nation to look away from the fact that Trump is pissing up a great economy (according to Wall Street)…..

If war is truly what Trump and Bolton want then there should be one more “dire” event that will make the war necessary.

What will it be?

I really do not like where this is going!

This is feeling like…..deja vu …..all over again!