Tag: Nukes

Two Weeks And Counting

For decades Israel has stoked the fires of war with Iran and using their, Iran, desire for a nuclear bomb….and each presidency and the MSM have been fanning that myth since 1992….

The West has happily regurgitated claims by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel was forced to act because Iran was on the cusp of producing a nuclear bomb – an entirely evidence-free claim he has been making since 1992.

Even that idiot Donny’s DNI, Gabbard, has stated…. Tulsi Gabbard, had expressly stated as part of the US intelligence community’s annual assessment: “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ali] Khameini has not authorized a nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”

Think about that for a moment….since 1992 and they still did not have a nuke….no one serious works that slowly.

Let’s move on to today’s fiasco….

It has been a point of contention whether the US should join Israel in their destruction of Iran….and now we may have an answer to that question….

President Trump said in a statement released by the White House on Thursday that he will make a decision on whether or not to directly enter the Israel-Iran war by launching airstrikes within two weeks.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt read the statement at a press briefing. “Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place in the near future, I will make my decision of whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” she said.

When asked what Trump’s demands were for a diplomatic solution with Iran, Leavitt said Tehran must give up its nuclear enrichment program, a condition Tehran has made clear is a non-starter. Iranian officials have also said they’re not willing to negotiate while Israel is attacking Iran.

Reuters reported on Thursday that US envoy Steve Witkoff has spoken by phone with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi several times since Israel launched the war last week. Diplomats said that Aragchi’s message was that Iran could return to nuclear negotiations and “show flexibility” but only if Israel’s attacks come to an end.

The statement from Trump regarding the timeline on his decision came after The Wall Street Journal reported that the president has approved plans to attack Iran but is waiting to give the final order.

(antiwar.com)

Let’s say that mentally challenged bozo in charge goes full in on the idea to join Israel in this conflict we could be looking at a huge problem….

The Pentagon’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has told US officials that in order to destroy Iran’s Fordow nuclear plant, which is buried deep underground, the US may need to drop a nuclear weapon, The Guardian has reported.

According to the report, Pentagon officials who received the briefing were told that dropping GBU-57s, conventional 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs, would not penetrate deep enough underground and that it would only do enough damage to collapse tunnels and bury the facility under rubble.

The officials were told that in order to destroy Fordow completely, the US would likely need to first soften the ground with conventional bombs and then ultimately drop a tactical nuclear weapon from a B2 bomber.

The report said that President Trump is not considering using a nuclear weapon and that the option was not presented to him by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. According to a report from Axios, Trump is casting doubt on the idea that the GBU-57s could do enough damage to destroy the facility.

Israel wants the US to drop the bunker-busting bombs on Fordow since it lacks the capability, but so far, Trump has not given the order for US airstrikes on Iran. The president said on Thursday that he would decide within two weeks, although there are indications that attacks could begin this weekend.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched the war and the attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities over claims that Iran was seeking a nuclear weapon, but that was contradicted by both US intelligence and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which have said there’s no evidence Tehran had made the decision to pursue a nuclear bomb.

(antiwar.com)

I have no confidence that this is completely off the table with Donny and his band of incompetents.

As scary as that thought is there is a telling part of that memo….”Israel wants the US to drop the bunker-busting bombs on Fordow since it lacks the capability”

There you go Israel does not have the means without the US….then ask yourself if that is true why would they start a war they could not finish?

That says it all and yet most people will glaze over this completely in their blind support of a murderous entity….and for what reason?

There is so much more to this than good guys and bad guys….the future of the region is at stake….and the peasants watch TikTok.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Will There Be A Nuclear Incident In Ukraine?

There are many that think Putin will be pressed into using some form of nuclear device in Ukraine….and then possibly onto the rest of the world.

Is that fear universal?

What does the average Russian think?

The results of survey was published in “New Voice Of Ukraine”

The survey says that 9% of Russians, asked whether the Russian leadership is ready to launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine, said “definitely yes,” and 20% said “rather yes,”, while 32% said “rather no,” 28% said “definitely no,” and 12% “hesitated to answer.”

In addition, 29% of respondents believe that the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia against Ukraine is justified, while 56% said the use of this type of weapon could not be justified.

On March 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Earlier, Director of National Intelligence in the Biden administration, Avril Haines, reported that Russia is unlikely to launch a nuclear strike, according to the White House.

Now is this a propaganda piece or a true survey that Ukraine somehow got their hands on to use for news and support?

I found lots of opinion piece on the possibility of the use of nukes but nothing along the lines of this ‘survey’….for now I am skeptical that this is an accurate depiction of the Russian people and their thoughts on the possibility of the use nukes in Ukraine.

On another thought….did Russia ever move nukes into their ally, Belarus?

I personally do not think Putin will use nukes….but that could change if and when Putin becomes desperate.

But just in case here are 3 scenarios that could answer that question…..as published in Politico….

Scenario 1: Remote atmospheric test

Least provocative would be Putin’s resumption of above-ground nuclear testing — by detonating a low-yield nuclear warhead high above Novaya Zemlya, the old Soviet test site in the Arctic, for example. While both the actual damage on the ground and radioactive fallout would be negligible, the psychological effect could be enormous: It would be the first nuclear explosion by a superpower since nuclear testing ended in 1992, and the first bomb detonated in the atmosphere by either the U.S. or Russia after such tests were outlawed by treaty in 1963. It would also be a potent reminder that Putin has tactical nuclear weapons in abundance — about 2,000 by last count — and is prepared to use them.

Scenario 2: Atmospheric detonation above Ukraine

A more provocative demonstration would be an ultra-high-altitude explosion of a more powerful weapon over Ukraine itself. In a 1962 test, the U.S. detonated a 1.4-megaton H-bomb in the mid-Pacific, 250 miles above the Earth. The resulting electromagnetic pulse unexpectedly knocked out streetlights and disrupted telephone service in Hawaii, 900 miles distant. A similarly powerful explosion above Kyiv would not only be visually spectacular but would likely plunge the capital into prolonged darkness and silence by shorting out computers, cellphones and other electronics. EMP effects might also extend into NATO member countries. But the extent of damage from the pulse is unpredictable, and Russian communications could also be affected.

Scenario 3: Ground explosion in Ukraine

Most dangerous — and, for that reason, perhaps least likely — would be using a tactical nuclear weapon to achieve a concrete military objective such as disrupting the delivery of weapons to Ukrainians fighting in a city like Mariupol. Alternatively, Putin might detonate a tactical nuclear warhead against military or logistics targets in sparsely populated western Ukraine — in the agricultural lands between Lviv and Kyiv, for instance — after warning people in the target area to evacuate. But even the smallest nuclear weapon would set fires over a wide area if detonated in the air. Depending on the height of the explosion, it could also spread lingering radioactive fallout, possibly extending into NATO member countries and Russia itself.

Any thoughts?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

A New NK Wrinkle

Keeping with the ‘nuke’ meme of the day.

We are always hearing about the the NK missiles and nuke tests and now there is a new wrinkle in the North Korean arsenal…..an underwater nuke drone……

North Korea claimed Friday to have tested a nuclear-capable underwater drone designed to generate a gigantic “radioactive tsunami” that would destroy naval strike groups and ports. Analysts were skeptical that the device presents a major new threat, but the test underlines the North’s commitment to raising nuclear threats, the AP reports. The testing of the purported “nuclear underwater attack drone” was part of a three-day exercise that simulated nuclear attacks on unspecified South Korean targets, which also included cruise missile launches on Wednesday. The tests came as the United States reportedly planned to deploy aircraft carrier strike groups and other advanced assets to waters off the Korean Peninsula.

Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency said the new weapon, which can be deployed from the coast or towed by surface ships, is built to “stealthily infiltrate into operational waters and make a super-scale radioactive tsunami through an underwater explosion to destroy naval strike groups and major operational ports of the enemy.” The North Korean report came hours before South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol pledged to make North Korea pay for its “reckless provocations” as he attended a remembrance service honoring 55 South Korean troops killed during major clashes with the North near their western sea border in past years.

KCNA said that the drills were supervised by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who condemned US-South Korean drills that finished Thursday as invasion rehearsals and vowed to make his rivals “plunge into despair.” The drone is named “Haeil,” a Korean word meaning tidal waves or tsunami. KCNA said the North’s latest tests were aimed at alerting the United States and South Korea of a brewing “nuclear crisis” as they continue with their “intentional, persistent and provocative war drills.” KCNA said North Korea’s latest drills verified the operational reliability of the drone, which it said the North has been developing since 2012 and tested more 50 times in the past two years, although the weapon was never mentioned in state media until Friday.

This ought to help fund more adventurism in the Korean Peninsula…..

This is worth a watch for future military commitments from the US.

Let’s see if this news gets as much attention as the Russian nukes in Belarus.  (Any bets?)

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Could The US Be Overwhelmed?

The war in Ukraine has many bloggers predicting that if Ukraine loses then the Russian machine will not stop there and may even use nukes on the rest of the world….especially on the US.

All that may well be accurate but there is very few bloggers that have had anything to say about news that broke just last week (I waited a bit to see if the same doom and gloom would hold as much interest)…

The news to which I am referencing…..

North Korea hosted a military parade Wednesday night in Pyongyang, a celebration of the 75th anniversary of the modern-day Korean People’s Army. But one attraction in particular rolling down the streets of Kim Il Sung Square is now drawing international attention: what the nation’s government claims were a dozen or so Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missiles—the largest number of the nuclear weapons yet witnessed in that country, reports Reuters. “This is cumulatively more ICBM launchers than we’ve ever seen before at a North Korean parade,” Ankit Panda of the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace tweeted of the 11 missiles he counted in images released by state media (check out some of the photos here).

The Hwasong 17, North Korea’s largest ICBM, is believed to be capable of reaching the United States, and the number apparently seen Wednesday might be enough to “conceivably overwhelm the United States’ defense against them, blowing a hole in decades of denuclearization and homeland security policies,” per Politico. The outlet, which reports there may have been as many as 12 of the ICBMs spotted, notes that each one can theoretically hold four nuclear warheads. The US, however, has only 44 interceptors on the ground in Alaska and California to take out any incoming missiles—meaning “it’s possible Pyongyang can fire more warheads at the US than America has interceptors.” Also seen at the parade: vehicles carrying what some analysts think were prototypes of solid-fuel missile canisters, which don’t need to spend time fueling up, as they come preloaded.

In 2020, Chad O’Carroll, founder of the US-based NK News, predicted that North Korea would have “military parades with dozens of ICBMs” and “solid-fuel ICBMs”—by 2040. “We’re only at 2023 and this parade shows rapid progress on these two points,” he tweeted Wednesday. Politico notes that it hasn’t yet been shown that the Hwasong-17 missiles can actually survive reentry or hit a US target from such a distance. But Wednesday’s show “punches a hole in 20-plus years of US homeland missile defense policy predicated on defending against a ‘limited’ missile threat from North Korea,” Panda tells the outlet, which notes that “administration after administration has failed to stop North Korea’s march to this moment.”

Why is this?

Does this not feed their preconceived notions of war and international situations?

Or could it be that this information is just too much for them to retain?

I’ll wait until I see more interest on a subject that most bloggers think is dire…..I may have a long wait.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

More Nukes….More threats

WE all know, well those that can read, know all about the threats Vlad the Invader has made about the use of nukes….and we all know of the response to those threats.

Then there is the use of long range missiles by Lil Kim of North Korea….and of course that has South Korea and Japan scrambling…..

Now the US has made it’s ideas known….

The US makes its threat….

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said the US would be willing to deploy nuclear weapons against North Korea under certain conditions. During her recent trip to South Korea, Vice President Kamala Harris called for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. 

Washington “will use the full range of US defense capabilities to defend our allies, including nuclear, conventional and missile defense capabilities,” the deputy secretary said during a meeting with South Korean and Japanese officials. Sherman added that the US security commitment to Seoul and Tokyo is “ironclad.”

The threat to use the bomb against North Korea comes nearly a month after Harris traveled to South Korea and demanded Pyongyang abandon its nuclear arsenal. The government led by Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un has consistently maintained that its nuclear forces are a deterrent against US-led military action.

In recent months, military activity on the Korean Peninsula has seen a significant spike, with Washington and Seoul conducting provocative live-fire war games, while a US aircraft carrier recently made a port call to South Korea for the first time in several years. 

Washington, Seoul and Tokyo signed a trilateral agreement to step up security ties in June. The three countries recently held joint military drills. North Korea denounced the agreement as an American effort to create a NATO-like alliance in the Pacific.

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/white-house-threatens-to-use-nuclear-weapons-against-north-korea/

Now back to the nuke threat from Vlad…..

The US is running nuke drills close to the Russian border…..plus the US is upgrading the nukes in Europe….The revelation of the plan comes as both Russia and NATO are conducting nuclear exercises. President Biden recently said the risk of nuclear “armageddon” is at its highest since the end of the Cold War, but his administration has shown no interest in pursuing diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine or ease tensions with Moscow.

The US has accelerated plans to deploy an upgraded version of its primary nuclear gravity bomb to Europe amid heightened tensions with Russia over the potential use of nuclear weapons.

A cable obtained by Politico reveals that US officials told NATO allies in Brussels this month that they will send an upgraded version of the B61-12 air-dropped gravity bomb to Europe by December. The upgraded bomb was originally set to arrive in Europe next spring.

The plan involves replacing older weapons with upgraded bombs at US storage facilities in Europe. The US keeps about 100 nuclear warheads at air bases in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey.

(antiwar.com)

As a response from Vlad was predictable…..

Russia has notified the US that it has started its nuclear exercises, two US officials said on Tuesday, according to CBS News.

“Russia is complying with its arms control obligations and its transparency commitments to make those notifications,” Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters.

Russia is holding its annual Grom exercises that will be held for several weeks, and the US says they will include the launching of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. The drills coincide with NATO’s nuclear exercises, known as Steadfast Noon, that are being hosted by Belgium and held over the UK and the North Sea.

Both exercises have been described as “routine” but come amid soaring tensions between the US and Russia over the potential use of nuclear weapons. President Biden recently warned that the risk of nuclear war is higher now than at any time since the height of the Cold War.

NATO’s Steadfast Noon exercises do not involve live-fire drills, but 14 alliance members are participating. The US, Britain, and France are NATO’s only nuclear-armed powers, but five other alliance members host US nuclear warheads under NATO’s nuclear sharing program; Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey.

You know that all this sounds like of couple of sex crazed gorillas circling each other thumping their chests.

All the threats…..sorry but it is all so silly if it were not so scary.

The nuclear ballet has begun…..where will it end?

Apparently the anti-nuke sentiments of the 70s and 80s in Europe has been buried….

The US’s European allies are concerned that the US may dial back its support for Ukraine if Republicans are victorious in the upcoming midterm elections.

That would mean they would have to cough up more cash in the support of this war.

Finland will not make things better…in their desire to join NATO they will allow nukes on the Russian border….

NATO nuclear weapons could potentially be placed on Russia’s border with Finland if Helsinki joins the Western military alliance, Newsweek reported on Wednesday, citing a Finnish newspaper.

The newspaper Iltalehti reported that the bill the Finnish government will put before the country’s parliament on joining NATO doesn’t include any opt-outs for hosting nuclear weapons.

Finnish military sources told the paper that Finland’s foreign minister and defense minister committed to NATO back in July that they wouldn’t seek “restrictions or national reservations” if their application to join the alliance is accepted. Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said earlier this month that Finland had “no preconditions” for joining NATO.

While Finland may be willing to host nuclear weapons, it’s unlikely they would be placed in the country after it joins NATO, at least in the near future. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin has previously said the alliance has expressed no interest in placing nuclear warheads in Finland.

Currently, the alliance keeps no nuclear warheads in countries that joined NATO after the end of the Cold War, although Poland recently said it’s had discussions with the US on hosting the weapons.

(antiwar.com)

Some sanity needs to prevail….but I doubt it.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Looking For The “Cloud”

I am not talking about that imaginary location that computer nerds use all the time.

This “Cloud” is the one that so many Americans are fearing….the none that is left by the detonation of a nuke.

There are so many people blogging about the the possibility….it is interesting that most of the ‘posts’ are to add to the fear that Americans are feeling.

When Putin thumped his chest and threaten to use nukes Pres. Biden went on a tear with threats of his own….

This is surrender in multiple directions, or so it seemed to me as I read these words the other day in the New York Times — surrender to the worst (the stupidest) of who we are, on the part not only of the growling superpowers on both sides of the conflict, who are apparently playing games with Armageddon, but also surrender on the part of the mainstream media, which has failed, yet again, to cover war in the context of a larger sanity.

Oops, darn that mushroom cloud!

Maintaining peace through militarism — us vs. them, good guy wins, bad guy loses — has gotten blown up in the age of nukes. But for some reason any grasp of this remains politically marginal. In a world that has sliced itself into international borders, power remains a matter of dominance, or so the world’s leaders (and the media that covers them) continue, apparently, to believe.

Much of Planet Earth is moving beyond this glaringly lethal ignorance, but the most “powerful” nations on the planet remain spiritually underdeveloped. It’s the only way they can hold onto their power.

Nukes, War and Moral Sanity

Is Putin serious?

Well the State Department has made a statement…..

White House national security spokesman John Kirby on Tuesday said that the United States has not seen any indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a decision on whether to use nuclear weapons amid the war in Ukraine, but that recent comments make it “imperative” for the U.S. to monitor the situation.

“We’ve seen no indication, nothing that tells us Mr. Putin has made a decision to use nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction at all inside Ukraine,” he told reporters. “And we’ve seen no indication that the Russian apparatus is moving anything to prepare for that kind of a decision.”

Kirby said that his information is based on the U.S. monitoring Putin’s capabilities, which it has done since the beginning of the conflict. Additionally, he said that the U.S. has not seen anything that would cause it to change its strategic deterrence posture to defend itself or allies and partners.

Kirby: No indication that Putin has decided to use nuclear weapons

Instead of whining and bitching about nukes…..maybe they should do something besides sit on their ass and whimpering…..

Right now, we’re closer to a cataclysmic nuclear war than at any other time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. One assessment after another has said the current situation is even more dangerous.

Yet few members of Congress are advocating for any steps that the U.S. government could take to decrease the dangers of a nuclear conflagration. The silences and muted statements on Capitol Hill are evading the reality of what’s hanging in the balance – the destruction of almost all human life on Earth. “The end of civilization.”

Constituent passivity is helping elected officials to sleepwalk toward unfathomable catastrophe for all of humanity. If senators and representatives are to be roused out of their timid refusal to urgently address – and work to reduce – the present high risks of nuclear war, they need to be confronted. Nonviolently and emphatically.

…

What could the US government do to lessen the chances of global nuclear annihilation? The Defuse Nuclear War campaign, which is coordinating those picket lines, has identified key needed actions. Such as:

  • Rejoin nuclear-weapons treaties the US has pulled out of.

    President George W. Bush withdrew the United States from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002. Under Donald Trump, the US withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. Both pacts significantly reduced the chances of nuclear war.

  • Take US nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert.

    Four hundred intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are armed and ready for launch from underground silos in five states. Because they’re land-based, those missiles are vulnerable to attack and thus are on hair-trigger alert – allowing only minutes to determine whether indications of an incoming attack are real or a false alarm.

  • End the policy of “first use.”

    Like Russia, the United States has refused to pledge not to be the first to use nuclear weapons.

  • Support congressional action to avert nuclear war.

    In the House, H.Res. 1185 includes a call for the United States to “lead a global effort to prevent nuclear war.”

  • (antiwar.com)

Bitching is the easy part….action takes gonads and determination….a couple of things armchair generals have in short supply.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Will The Nukes Fly?

Since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict there have been opinions and worries that Putin will use nukes which could trigger a third world war…..for we know there will be some sort of retaliation.

And now some are saying it is closer than we ever anticipated……if it does occur what can we expect?

There is no pretty picture……

Five billion people would die in a modern nuclear war with the impact of a global famine — triggered by sunlight-blocking soot in the atmosphere — likely to far exceed the casualties caused by lethal blasts.
Scientists at Rutgers University mapped out the effects of six possible nuclear conflict scenarios. A full-scale war between the US and Russia, the worst possible case, would wipe out more than half of humanity, they said in the study published in the journal Nature Food.
The estimates were based on calculations of how much soot would enter the atmosphere from firestorms ignited by the detonation of nuclear weapons. Researchers used a climate forecasting tool supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which allowed them to estimate productivity of major crops on a country-by-country basis.
Even a relatively small-scale conflict would have devastating consequences for global food production. A localized battle between India and Pakistan would see crop yields decline by an estimated 7% within five years, the study suggested, while a US-Russia war would see production fall by 90% within three to four years.
 
Here is something the the Brits should be worried about as they consider a replacement for Johnson…..
 

UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has declared that she is ready and willing to kick off thermonuclear warfare should she take over as prime minister, stressing her hawkish bonafides as she seeks to replace Boris Johnson.

Appearing at a town hall event in Birmingham on Tuesday, Truss was asked how she would feel about ordering “global annihilation” in the event of a nuclear standoff with a foreign adversary. 

“I won’t ask you if you would press the button, you’ll say yes, but faced with that task I would feel physically sick,” said host John Pienaar, who went on to ask: “How does that thought make you feel?”

“I think it’s an important duty of the prime minister and I’m ready to do that,” Truss replied, drawing applause from the audience. When Pienaar asked again how that decision would make her “feel,” she simply stated “I’m ready to do it.”

Seriously?

The results of the use of a nuke is devastating…..does anyone think that we have a leader anywhere that is so psychotic that he/she would risk everything to use a nuke?
 
I am still not convinced that all this back and forth on nukes is just posturing….threats only.
 
But world leaders need to take the threats seriously.
 
I Read, I Write, You KNow
 
“lego ergo scribo”

Let There Be Nukes!

About a month ago Putin made one of his rambling comments about nukes and the media jumped on it with both feet and turned it into a story that has most Americans biting their nails….

And to this day it is still got Americans talking to themselves…..the media did their job and turned this into a major story that convinces people that the possibility of the use of a nuke is imminent….

Why not look at this possibility a little closer…..

The world watched uneasily on Feb. 24 when Russian troops, under the orders of President Vladimir Putin, invaded Ukraine.

“The prospect of nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, is now back within the realm of possibility,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said March 14.

Nearly 70% of Americans surveyed by the American Psychological Association said they “are worried the invasion of Ukraine is going to lead to nuclear war, and that they fear that we are at the beginning stages of World War III.”

Researchers estimate there are approximately 12,700 nuclear weapons spread between nine countries, with the United States and Russia holding the majority.

Researchers and government officials stress that a nuclear attack is very unlikely.

“We are assessing President Putin’s directive and, at this time, we see no reason to change our own alert levels,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Feb. 28.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/hypothetical-nuclear-attack.html

Is there a real possibility?

Then on 27 February, Putin ordered Russia to move nuclear forces to a ‘special mode of combat duty’, which has a significant meaning in terms of the protocols to launch nuclear weapons from Russia. According to Russian nuclear weapons experts, Russia’s command and control system cannot transmit launch orders in peacetime, so increasing the status to ‘combat’ allows a launch order to go through and be put into effect.

Putin portrayed this as a defensive response to the imposition of economic sanctions, but outside Russia it is seen as a pathway for Russia to use its nuclear weapons in a first strike surprise attack. This is a highly dangerous situation in which mixed messaging with the potential for misinterpretation could lead to decisions being made under false assumptions – there is a well-documented history of close calls with nuclear weapons.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/03/how-likely-use-nuclear-weapons-russia

Senior Policy Director John Erath was quoted in a Newsweek article about how far Russian President Vladimir Putin might go to win the war in Ukraine.

“I don’t think that the Russian leadership and Putin are irrational actors,” John Erath, senior policy director for the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, said. “The use of a nuclear weapon would lead to the possibility of a response that would be disastrous for all.”

“I don’t think it is at all likely that nuclear weapons would be used. Unfortunately, there is a greater chance of a nuclear weapon now than two weeks ago because Putin and some of his top advisers have said explicitly Russia would consider using nuclear weapons,” said Erath. “Chances are still low but are greater than they were, and that is a big problem. There is an increasing likelihood.” Read more\

Personally I think it was chest thumping…..and it had its intention….every news media and think tank took the bait and ran with it.

Next up Chemical weapons…..

Turn The Page!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Do As Say Not As We Do

The US is always accusing others of the very things they do….and looks like space will be NO different.

I have written about the plans the US has for space…..https://lobotero.com/2020/12/06/mission-space/

A general within the Space Force has stated that we need to be ready for China and Russia are weaponizing space….

Gen. John Raymond, the chief of space operations for the US Space Force, accused Russia and China of weaponizing space during a virtual event on Thursday.

The general insisted that the US has no desire to weaponize space but said “unfortunately” China and Russia plan to, so the US must create a military deterrence. “Our goals are to deter conflict from beginning or extending into space,” Raymond said.

Raymond also stressed the importance of working with allies in space. “I’m going to really work hard on cultivating partnerships,” he said, citing cooperation with Canada, Australia, Japan, the UK, France, New Zealand, and Germany.

“We’re really turning these partnerships into partnerships where we operate together; we train together; we exercise together; we war-game together; we develop capabilities together, and it’s proven to pay significant advantages and there’s future growth opportunities ahead,” he said.

Now that the US has a military branch dedicated to space, the US needs to hype the threat of adversary activity in space, something Raymond has been busy doing. In November, the general said the US is facing growing threats in space, again citing China and Russia.

“I think there’s a realization amongst nations that access to space is no longer a given. We’ve got to make sure that we stay ahead of this growing threat,” he said.

(antiwar.com)

Wait we are accusing China and Russia of doing the same things we are doing….I cannot wait for the propaganda to start in earnest…..

Not to worry….the cash will be well spent (that is total sarcasm in your missed it)

President Donald Trump made the Space Force a reality when he signed the fiscal 2020 National Defense Authorization Act on Dec. 20, 2019. It temporarily reassigned 16,000 airmen and civilians to the new branch and dissolved the Air Force’s leading major command overseeing space, Air Force Space Command.

Leaders say the January missile warning and other high-profile operations are milestones to be proud of as the service marks its first birthday.

But with adversaries testing satellite-busting technology and other space weapons that could wreak havoc on rank-and-file troops’ operations, the Space Force says it is focused on the mission.

The Space Force concept has been criticized and even mocked, and some continue to hold that space operations should fall under the Air Force.

But Pentagon officials have warned that space threats have been increasing over the last decade. Both Russia and China have been focused on technological advancements, and U.S. intelligence agencies have observed Russia testing non-kinetic, anti-satellite weapons. Earlier this year, two Russian satellites, Cosmos 2542 and 2543, tailed an American satellite, known as USA 245 or KH-11. Time Magazine reported the Russian satellites loitered within 100 miles of KH-11, activity that Raymond called “unusual and disturbing.”

Just another venue for the profit taking of the M-IC…..and another venue for Americans to involve itself in more endless ‘wars’….

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Do We Still Need Nuke Control?

That is the question.

I spent many years fighting against the spread of nuke weapons and energy…..and after the USSR collapsed we had some good times with both sides agreeing to limit the weapons and destroy those over the limit…..good times…..but I knew they could not last……and then the nightmare scenario came about this country elected Donald the Orange…..and the nuke race was once again in the forefront of foreign policy.

Since Trump he has wanted more nukes as a “deterrent”….but that is not what the story is….

Gen. Paul Selva, the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, noted in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee in March 2017 that while Russia and China continue to modernize their nuclear forces, “we [the United States] do have a qualitative advantage.” 

The Trump administration, as outlined in its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) released on Feb. 2, 2018, intends to continue the modernization plan laid out by the Obama administration, and also develop several new nuclear weapons capabilities that will add to the price tag for nuclear forces, including the near-term development of a low-yield submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and the longer-term development of new nuclear submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM).

The NPR acknowledges that the upgrade costs are “substantial” but claims that nuclear weapons will consume no more than 6.4 percent of the defense budget. This projection does not include the cost of the new capabilities proposed in the review nor the major costs that must be borne by NNSA to upgrade nuclear warheads and their supporting infrastructure.

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USNuclearModernization

Not to be outdone (as usual) Russia has plans as well…..

In the big strategic game, the Russians and Americans have the same reason for modernizing their nuclear forces: they want to maintain parity. If the two sides have the same number of nuclear warheads deployed, then they will not be tempted to shoot at each other. They also have a reason to avoid an arms race that would entail constantly seeking more nuclear weapons to try to achieve superiority—however temporary. As expensive as nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles are, parity has kept the costs down by holding the arms race in check.

In the past few years, President Vladimir Putin does seem to be after nuclear weapons for another reason—to show that Russia is still a great power to be reckoned with. He has been trumpeting new and exotic systems that are unique, like the nuclear weapon delivery system known as the Burevestnik nuclear-propelled cruise missile.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/01/29/russia-is-updating-their-nuclear-weapons-what-does-that-mean-for-rest-of-us-pub-80895

Now the BIg Two are going after more nukes…a third player has entered into the desire…..China.

Hu Xijin, the editor-in-chief of an English daily tabloid published by the ruling Chinese Communist Party, urged his nation to expand its nuclear arsenal in response to “bullying” from the U.S. in a new editorial.

In the article published by The Global Times on Saturday, Hu argued that China needed to build up its stockpile of nuclear weapons as a “deterrent,” as U.S. officials have been increasingly critical of the Chinese government amid the coronavirus pandemic. The editor argued that this would “safeguard national security.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinese-state-media-calls-for-building-up-chinas-nuclear-deterrent/ar-BB13S6uJ

To answer my original question…the answer is a resounding YES!

Why?

The Trump admin is traveling down a new road…..with No rules……

In a departure from this history, the Trump administration has abandoned U.S. leadership in the arms control field and seems guided by a contrary set of assertions that have gained salience on the hawkish side of the Republican party, namely:

• The United States should not discuss vital national security issues, or consider compromise, with adversaries such as Iran until they have fully met U.S. demands in all fields.

• Arms control agreements grant unwarranted concessions to opponents, and they constrain the United States’ freedom of action. (This has been the guiding principle for John Bolton, former national security adviser and a serial assassin of arms control agreements.)

• Arms control agreements serve little value if they do not solve every problem between the parties. This all-or-nothing approach is exemplified by the U.S. decision to withdraw from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

• We must be prepared and willing to wage, and prevail in, a “limited” nuclear war, which can remain “limited.” This mirrors an increased Russian interest in the same topic and is exemplified in the renewed U.S. program for construction of nonstrategic (so-called “low-yield”) warheads and delivery systems.

• The United States can achieve a numerical or technical advantage over our nuclear-armed adversaries by constantly pursuing improvements and new nuclear weapons capabilities. (The administration’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review makes several references to the U.S. “technical edge,” which is of little relevance in an all-out nuclear conflict.)

http://www.afsa.org/why-nuclear-arms-control-matters-today?mc_cid=678c11d675&mc_eid=91f0c9a21d

Time for people to get their idiot heads out of the sand….we are starting down a familiar path that can lead to nothing but apprehension and dread.

Time for the people to FIGHT back.

Bread for people…No Nukes!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”