Tag: Arab Spring

Democracy After the Arab Spring

This is another post that will meet with strong opposition….you see whenever someone has something positive to say about the region or the religion then they are just being “politically correct” or a “bleeding heart” or….well you get the idiotic idea.

Back in 2011 there was a chance for there to be a ground swell of democratic movements…unfortunately the whole thing was hijacked by radical fundamentalists and authoritarian dickheads…..

This is a really good article about the region and the aftermath of the Arab Spring…….

The Arab Winter convinced many that the Middle East is destined to be a hopelessly repressive region. But peel away the layers and it’s clear there’s both hope and opportunity.

Since the uprisings of the Arab Spring in 2011, an Arab Winter of authoritarian backlash has swept across the Middle East. The setbacks in the Middle East have actually been part of a global phenomenon of authoritarian resurgence that has been marked by increased repression in Russia and China, as well as by setbacks to democracy in smaller countries like Venezuela, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Thailand. But the authoritarian resurgence has been more pronounced in the Middle East than in other regions. Indeed, according to Freedom House, 12 of 18 countries in the Middle East are more repressive today than they were before the Arab Spring uprisings.

Source: Islam and Democracy After the Arab Spring | World Affairs Journal

Shifting Priorities: The Rise and Fall of Arab Revolutionary Discourse by Ramzy Baroud — Antiwar.com

About 5 years ago the world was a fire with the situation in the Arab world….it appeared that a case for democracy was breaking out all over the place…….what began in Tunisia quickly moved through the region…..to Algeria and Jordan and Syria and Egypt and even to a smaller extent to Saudi Arabia…..but all this quickly broke down into regional conflicts involving violence and death…….

But what happened to that desire for democracy…….for freedom and security…..what happened?

 

Shifting Priorities: The Rise and Fall of Arab Revolutionary Discourse by Ramzy Baroud — Antiwar.com.

How Middle East Millennials Are Remaking the Arab World – The Takeaway

Since the beginning of the Arab Spring in Tunisia in 2011 change has been everywhere in the Middle East…….some of it good and some not so good…..but there is a wave that has been started that could very well change the face of the ME for centuries……..and the leaders of the future have their agenda……

 

How Middle East Millennials Are Remaking the Arab World – The Takeaway.

Was Arab Spring A Success?

Inkwell Institute

Middle East Desk

How many of my readers remember the Arab Spring?

A couple of years ago the Arab World blew up…..blew up into demonstrations, protests, civil disobedience and yes….revolution.  It hit almost every country across North Africa and the Middle East…….Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, even countries like Syria, Bahrain,  Jordan….so many protests and so many changes occurring……

Well the whole  exercise did change some things and some things not so much……regime changes in Libya, Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia….then nothing in places like Bahrain, Jordan…….and then there is the situation in Syria…….that one is a bloody mess.

So far not much has really changed other than the leadership….not much democracy breaking out…….lots of violence and protests and government changes, mostly to appease the multitudes and to prevent all out revolution……..

Ah, Tunisia……when I went to the Middle East many years ago I went for a job with the UN headquartered in Tunis…..unfortunately I did not get the job….my Arabic was not as good as it should have been and my French just sucked…….after a couple of weeks I landed a job with a Spanish newspaper with their North Africa desk located in Tunis……and from there the rest is as they say….history.

The one bright spot has been the country of Tunisia……..the country where it all began…….the Arab Spring was fueled by a situation in Tunisia…….18 December 2010 in Sidi Bouzid, following Mohamed Bouazizi‘s self-immolation in protest of police corruption and ill treatment….from that one seemingly small occurrence fueled the events that spiraled out of control.

(BTW, if you are a Star Wars fan….what was the name of the planet that Luke lived on?  Take a good look at the map……in southern Tunisia….look familiar?)

Since the beginning Tunisia has struggled but after many months of legislative deadlock….a constitution and elections to be held in late 2014…….Tunisia is emerging as a secular society meaning that extremists are having a hard time establishing a foothold……..it’s economy is getting better but not far from the toilet……unfortunately the IMF will step in and destroy the economy so they can strengthen it…….

Tunisia has a way to go but it is tracking well to be the first true democracy in North Africa…….we should do all we can as a country to help these brave souls accomplish what they are hoping to do…….a true secular democratic society.

What say you?

 

How the Arab Spring Left the Palestinians Behind | Informed Comment

A couple of years ago the Arab Spring was all over the media…..and there have been many situations that have arisen from those protests and revolts….Syria, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia to mention only a few….but the one region that has been left behind during these situations….the Palestinians

How the Arab Spring Left the Palestinians Behind | Informed Comment.

Looking For The Linchpin

NOTE:  I wrote this post about a month ago…..could not post it for all the scandals that were made up and I had to respond……and now Turkey has exploded so I guess I should post this before more happens……

There is a theory in international relations called the linchpin theory….basically, it is an occurrence, a small occurrence, that could explode into a society ending situation……a couple of good examples are WW1 and the Arab Spring…..

First linch pin was on 20 June 1914 a Bosnian student assassinated one of the heirs to the Austr0Hungarian empire in Sarajevo, Bosnia……after the killing there was a period of back and forth diplomatic adventures….and it slowly broke down to an alignment of countries that lead to the first great war of the 20th century…..July of 1914 the Austro-Hungarians decided to punish Serbia for the act of assassination….the Russians could not chance losing their influence in the Balkans decided to come to the rescue of Serbia…..then like dominoes countries fell into the trap of war……France, then Germany, then England and the Turks and much later the USA……in the end it changed the face of Europe forever……and in the end the Ottoman Empire was gone…..imperial Russia gone…….Austro-Hungarian collapsing….and all with a total of about 3 million dead……..because of one minor situation……the assassination was the linchpin needed…..

My second example is the recent Arab Spring of a year ago……The term “Arab Spring” was an invention by the media to conjure up visions of the revolt by Eastern European countries against the authority of the USSR……the revolts across North Africa and the Middle East encompassed almost every country in the region….Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and to a lesser extent in countries like Bahrain, Oman even the authoritarian state like Saudi Arabia was not exempt….there were many things that added fuel to the fire of revolt….unemployment, economic inequalities, extreme poverty, political corruption and human rights violations…….. but it all began with the actions of one man…….

The catalyst for the current escalation of protests was the self-immolation of Tunisian Mohamed Bouazizi.  Unable to find work and selling fruit at a roadside stand, on 17 December, a municipal inspector confiscated his wares.  An hour later he doused himself with gasoline and set himself afire.  One seemingly minor situation and the man became the face of a region ripe for change……..he was the linchpin that started a region on a path to revolt and change…….

Now in today’s world where high unemployment, austerity, corruption, class divisions getting deeper, I believe it is only a matter of time before there is a global situation and it will begin with a single seemingly unimportant occurrence…….and I believe it will originate in the Middle East…….

I have been an observer of the situations in the ME for over thirty years….first as a student then as an participant in the region and now I research every aspect of the area daily for hours….and in my research I have found a couple of areas that could be the linchpin I search for……the Middle East is one, most accurately, the area around Southeast Syria, Lebanon, Israel and the Occupied Territories….it is a volatile region and could be the linchpin….but it is also too damn obvious…..but the area that I feel could be the best chance of being the linchpin that starts a war of no end and total destruction…….

…..(insert drum roll and trumpet blasts)………

The area between the two seas……the Black sea and The Caspian……

Why?  This region is full of hatred for one group or another…..Chechens hate Russians, Armenians hate Turkey, There is South Ossetia within the borders of Georgia wanting independence, there are Kurds within the borders of most of the area’s countries and they have an argument with Turkey, then within Russian there is Dagestan that is a smoldering problem waiting for more fuel, Russia has had its nose disjointed by what they called an Azerbaijan snub, plus the government is cracking down on the press and other civil liberties…..very little of this region can be called stable and there is the rub…

This is the area that could produce the next history altering conflict….it bears watching.

What About Jordan?

With all the uprisings across the Middle East I have people ask me about Jordan…….it seems that things are pretty quiet there…..no as much as you would think……there have been many small protests and the King has handled it like any king would….put them down as quickly as possible and under the radar of the media…….

Jordan is located in the middle of crisis…..on one side is Israel…on another is Syria on another is Iraq and then there is the continuous hot spot…Lebanon…..Jordan is simmering……

A good analysis has been written by Medhi Hasan………

The truth is that Jordan’s royal rulers have tended to use the country’s politicians and bureaucrats to deflect attention from their own failings; the four Hashemite kings have changed prime ministers almost 70 times since the establishment of modern Jordan in 1921 and the current king, Abdullah, has appointed 10 different prime ministers since coming to power in 1999 – three of them in the past 12 months alone. As I asked Mohammed Halaikah, a former deputy prime minister under Abdullah: Is there something wrong with every single Jordanian premier or perhaps something wrong with the king himself?

I was surprised, in fact, to find criticism of King Abdullah, and his wife, the glamorous Queen Rania, commonplace in Amman, the country’s capital – despite the fact that insulting the king is punishable by three years in prison. Abdullah, however, lacks the charisma and charm of his late father, Hussein; many Jordanians may continue to harbour a nationalist and Islamic attachment to their Hashemite ruling family but plenty of others, for example, openly mock the Western-educated monarch’s poor command of Arabic. Rania, who is of Palestinian descent, is particularly unpopular with the East Bankers and her lavish lifestyle and extravagant spending has prompted ominous comparisons with Marie Antoinette.

Lest we forget, however, tiny, impoverished Jordan is a key strategic ally of the US and one of only two Arab nations (the other being Egypt) to have signed a peace treaty with the state of Israel. If the Arab Spring were to spread to the Hashemite kingdom and the ruling family fell, after almost a century in power, it would have a massive, almost unquantifiable impact on the wider region and on the Muslim world as a whole.

I think that the small kingdom will erupt after the Syrian crisis is resolved……activists are waiting….waiting for the chance to make a case to the world media….that is not saying that small pockets of resistance will not appear , just a massive push is out of the question…..for now.

What Is The Future Of The “Arab Spring”?

My regular readers know I have special interest in the Middle East and North Africa and now that I am taking a break from the pathetic spectacle that is the 2012 election…I can focus some attention on a subject that appeals to me….and leave the insults, the misinformation and horrendous reporting in the rear view mirror….at least for awhile……

We all know of the Arab Spring, that time when the people have risen up to depose their dictators….some despots and others just friends to the US….it all began with the suicide of a person in Tunisia and went onward from there…..we have seen the Egyptian response….the Libyan, the Yemen (though many are not watching) and finally the horrors of the Syrian opposition to their dictator, Assad…….but with all this protest and civil disobedience….how will it all play out?

On the Arab World and Democracy – The report is optimistic but cautious; a more democratic Arab polity could indeed emerge with the protests clearly demonstrating that Islam and democracy are not incompatible. According to young Muslims “democracy and political participation facilitate the affirmation of national, cultural and religious identities and creativity.” Underlined is the key role of the “social network generation” in pushing forward democratization.

On the Arab World and Social Accountability – The report’s Cairo focus group called for new forms of political participation, including introduction of local level checks and balances mechanisms, and underlined the importance of democratic control over decision-making through channels “other than elected representatives.” As one activist said “It is insufficient to wait for elections every four years to monitor and influence decisions.” Challenges include state controls over the media but this is increasingly balanced by participatory journalism, which uses new technologies and is emerging as an example of social accountability in action.

On Women and Gender Issues – The report states that the percentage of women in European and American parliaments stands at 20 percent – but is double that at 40 percent in the Nordic countries. In Arab countries it is 10 percent, lower than Africa’s 20 percent.  However, the report views the revolutions as a likely turning point (despite serious challenges) – “The political participation of women is very likely unstoppable…women are the protagonists of new movements and social changes, and will claim their right to determine the political destiny of their communities, countries and regions.” The new youth organizations, more open and internet and social network-savvy will likely strengthen the political involvement of women over the coming decades.

Identity issues – The Cairo focus group expressed an Arab identity and feeling “even more Egyptian” after the revolution. These well-educated youth had a strong sense of belonging, not “needing an enemy” to unite. Some saw themselves as “netizens”. Moroccan and Egyptian civic activists cited the late Moroccan academic Mohammed Abed al-Jabri who focused on reconciling modernity and the tradition in the Arab and Muslim worlds as having the most influence on them.

The Arab World and Conflict – On the conflict in the Western Sahara, much will depend on the democratization processes in Morocco and Algeria – meaningful dialogue could help resolve this conflict. Current changes in the Arab world may create more favorable conditions for Palestinian reconciliation and increase pressure on Israel to accept a two-state solution. Two factors in particular however could undermine peace: failure of attempts to democratize Syria and Egypt and political developments in Israel and the US favoring those opposed to a peace deal.

Egypt – Its democratic transition could turn it into a Middle East powerhouse. With a projected population of 106 million by 2030, Egypt can benefit from its proximity to Turkey and the European markets. But aside from consolidating democracy, Egypt needs to address poverty, marginalization, and the challenge of the “youth bulge.” If it does so, Egypt could be an ideological and political hub for a new pan-Arab project, replacing nationalism with “democratic patriotism”; this term is not defined in the report, but presumably means a much stronger commitment to democracy than previous nationalist ideologies in the region.

Regional Integration – The report posits the possibility of the region evolving into a “middle power” hub through cooperation between Turkey, Egypt, and Iran and Iraq, assuming the latter two democratize.  Such hubs, it argues, could become trans-regional and exert influence beyond the immediate region as they build “a new wave of development partnerships that transcend the rich-poor logic and promote south-south cooperation.”

The problem is that most of the countries experiencing the Arab Spring have very little exposure to democracy…..do not believe anyone that tells you differently……for most it will be the first chance to voice their opinions through their vote.

The Arab Spring should not be viewed as a larger movement than it is…..there is NO one answer fits all….each country will and should progress at its own pace and not be pressured by the West to do anything they are not ready to do.

Unfortunately, the West has had a history of trying to make things happen and not always in the interests of the people of the country….to let organizations like the World Bank and the IMF dictate to these fragile governments is a sure way to stop any and all progress and return the countries back into the hands of oppressive dictators.