We have been try to kick ISIS in the ass for about 8 months…..and all the while Yemen has been on the verge of collapse…..the US has pointed to the country as a bit of a success in the war on AQAP….we have killed many fighters and probably more civilians but that the war is going well on the Arab Peninsula…..
while we were patting ourselves on the back a conflict has been smouldering since the 1990’s with an occasional blow up here and there……and in the last 3 months that smouldering ember has become a full fledged war…….the Houthis, a Shi’a tribe from the northwest of the country has taken it upon themselves to storm the capital of Yemen, Sann’a and his consolidating their hold in a move to take the port of Aden…..
Saudi Arabia has had a hard on for the Houthis for years and some minor skirmishes have erupted…..minor, that is until yesterday………
Saudi Ambassador to the United States Adel al-Jubeir has announced that his country has begun military operations against Yemen, with an eye toward restoring Gen. Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi as the “legitimate government.”
Reports are that the military action has begun with airstrikes, which Saudi officials insist are being conducted only by Saudi warplanes and not with any coordination with any other country, against the Houthi forces.
Yemen was heading in the direction of a multi-faction civil war at any rate, with Hadi’s forces increasingly confined to the south, the Houthis spanning the north and west, al-Qaeda in the tribal areas, and ISIS and the forces of previous dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh both roaming around as well. Now, the Saudis are in the mix.
Obviously the Saudis’ goal is to install a friendly government, and to that end they’re seeing Gen. Hadi, “elected” in a single-candidate vote in 2012, as having at least a little legitimacy. Hadi’s resignation and subsequent fleeing into exile, however, are going to make it awfully hard for the Saudis to reassert him as a credible ruler.
How long will this situation continue? The longer the more of a chance that the US will be drawn into this conflict……..and once we enter our enemies will triple throughout the Middle East.
Will the US use a level head in this situation? Or will we rush to help an “ally”?
Whatever we decide it will most likely be wrong……this conflict will be a lose-lose scenario.
I say, “Stay out of it.” The Saudis have made their decision, and as far as I know, have not asked for help from any other country…yet.
It is boiling down to a sectarian conflict…..and the US is there just behind the scenes….
OK. Just hope we stay “behind the scenes.” I always have the fear that the U.S. will get involved in too much in too many areas. Congress doesn’t seem to feel the need to bankroll our armed services and homeland security properly at this point in time – as far as I’ve heard. So, what else is new?
I worry that if things go south the US will be blamed thus increasing our enemies…..
That’s an excellent reason to “stay out of it – whatever it is.” As I get older, I realize that charging into the fray is not the way to go the majority of times. Standing back, looking at options, considering carefully the actions and possible reactions is the way to go. I think more of these reasonable considerations have to be used more often than they have been in the past. Thanks for this thought-provoking post.
You are welcome…..my worry is that we will do anything that Prince Bandar wants…..he has done things for the US that needs t5o be re-paid…….reason and logic should prevail but somehow I do not think it will……
Despite what was said by the Saudi ambassador, facts say that some substantial support is being provided by the countries of the Arabian Gulf, Morocco, Jordan, and Egypt (as well as the United States, which have offered logistical help). I’d emphasize that the military escalation is almost contemporary with the capture of Aden, a few miles from the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb (which would be a tremendous tool of diplomatic pressure in the hands of Houthis and the Islamic Republic of Iran). Remarkable economic interests are at stake in the form of millions of oil barrels transiting a day. I hope I’m wrong, but it seems to me that that an already unstable Yemen could soon become an even safer haven for local terrorists. However, I think Washington has nothing to gain from intervening, as it would be a major shift in regional policy.
I see that the Arab nations are putting together an army for a possible invasion….would this not inflame Iran?
It certainly would. Despite Lausanne negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear energy are in their final stages, I don’t think Iran is particularly inclined to let the Sunni nations, and especially the Saudi rivals, intervene in Yemen with impunity. This is why I think the very first victim of yet another proxy war in the Middle East will be the (united) Republic of Yemen itself.
I agree…..I appreciate your insights….please keep them coming……chuq