Can you remember back to 2012? The election…..all the negativity and lies……remember all the polls that show Mitt basically running neck and neck with Obama? There were even some that were predicting a Mitt victory by a slim margin. Through all this speculation came a political mathematician, Nate Silver……he was laughed at when he predicted the the Prez would win and win big……there were many in the MSM that totally ignored his numbers and his prediction…..and guess what? He was right and all the “reputable” pollsters were completely WRONG!
As a political wonk I keep up with Nate Silver and his latest but initial findings are disturbing…….
Harry Reid might want to think carefully before revising the filibuster rules—because there’s a decent chance he’ll soon be on the other end of them. Nate Silver at the New York Times has crunched the race-by-race numbers, and based on them and his own best guesses and assumptions, concluded that “Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber,” even though they’ll have to win more seats to do it this year (net six) than they needed in 2012.
Some key races include:
- South Dakota and West Virginia: Democrats are retiring in both these states, the GOP has strong contenders, and the electorate leans red already.
- North Carolina: Republicans still don’t have a good candidate here, but given how poorly incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan is polling, they need only a halfway decent one.
- Arkansas: Democrat Mark Pryor’s poll numbers took a dip recently, and given how badly Blanche Lincoln lost her seat here, he can’t be feeling safe.
- Montana: Barry Schweitzer’s decision not to run is a huge boon for Republicans who now have the most qualified potential candidate in former Gov. Marc Racicot, in a state that already leans red.
- Alaska “is the closest thing to a tipping point state,” representing Republicans’ best bet to go from 50 seats to 51—assuming they win all of the above, plus tossup Louisiana—but incumbent Democrat Mark Begich is polling pretty well right now. (Will a familiar name be in the mix?)
This is worrying me…..I trust Silver and his technique…….it is disturbing to know that the GOP could possibly control both houses of the legislative branch…..if he is accurate, we are in for a long two years of total obstructionism………….any thoughts?
if he is accurate, we are in for a long two years of total obstructionism………….any thoughts?
And how would this be any different than the status quo, exactly?
It doesn’t matter anyway. Two years, so be it. The pressure is building on the other side of the dam. Republicans have painted themselves into an ideological and demographic corner (primarily by being on the wrong side of gay rights and immigration, respectively). Today, tomorrow, ten years from now, the dam is going to burst and they are going to find themselves deep in the political wilderness for a decade or two. They’ve lost an entire generation of young people, and the current crop old white people will not live forever.
Welcome Mathius and thanx for the visit. I agree with you mostly…..there will be change and by change I mean real change not the revisionist crap they call reform……the problem is that Dems do not seem to motivate the way the conservs can……to rid ourselves of the GOP dialog is to make it extinct…….lots of work and that is why I am here….
You should try to take the long view.
The longer the Democrats flail around in a wishy washy haze of ineffectuality, the longer this current crop of Republicans will be able to stymie them. This is true, but it is only half the story. The maintain their fragile grasp on power (or, more specifically, just enough power to stop liberals from doing anything important), the more extreme they must necessarily become.
You see, their overarching approach is to rally their dwindling base more and more fervently (smaller share, higher turnout). But to do so, they have to stoke fear and present an us-vs-them cultural perspective which, to their credit they do very well. The downside is that the “them” in this scenario is large and getting larger and, as this situation is protracted, “they” become more an more hostile to the GOP. Blacks, hispanics, women, homosexuals, liberals in general, non-Christians.. all these groups strongly view the GOP as overtly hostile to them.. and how long do you think it will take for them to forgive?
If the Democrats simply got a super majority and rendered the Republicans harmless, they would reorganize and reevaluate (as some in their party have tried to do). But as long as they are still “in power,” they won’t.
I doubt anyone is actively architecting this situation, but none the less, the longer this goes on, the deeper the Republicans dig their own political grave.
I say let them.
Mathius, I agree with you…I want these people to die a quick death, as a party……you might want to check the site next week….I am working on a post about the Political Law of Diminishing Returns…..thanx again for the comment….hope to see you often….chuq