Day: May 18, 2010

From Russia With Love

Inkwell Institute

International Studies Group

The big news the other day was that Iran may be close to a deal to ship their enriched Uranium to Turkey for processing….which if true could help eliminate some of the impasse there is in the Iran nuke debate….

The deal was reached in talks with Brazil and Turkey, elevating a new group of mediators for the first time in the dispute over Iran’s nuclear activities. There was no immediate comment from the United States and the other world powers that have led earlier negotiations as to whether the new deal would satisfy them and stave off a fourth round of UN sanctions.

The deal goes to the heart of international concern over Teheran’s nuclear activities. Earlier negotiations led by Germany and the five permanent UN Security Council members — the US, Britain, France, Russia and China — have sought to stop Iran from enriching uranium altogether, and thereby deprive it of a possible pathway to nuclear weapons.

Cool?  Right?  Turkey will be the neutral arbitrator…….really?

That is sort of good news……..but there was other news last week that did not get any attention in the US media…..as reported in the CS Monitor:

Turkey moved closer to becoming a nuclear energy nation after inking a deal with visiting Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to build a nuclear power plant on the Mediterranean coast.

The energy deals are part of NATO-ally Turkey’s broader strategy to expand its influence in the region and become an energy corridor between East and West, while also serving as an increasingly important diplomatic player seeking to help resolve Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

This is all so much good news……but is Turkey stable enough or will it become another Pakistan?  What a coincidence!  Turkey cuts a deal with Russia for a nuke plant and the next week they are the big cheese in the Iran stand off over enriched Uranium.  Is Turkey capable of play this important roll?  What the rise in Muslim fundamentalism in Turkey?

Sorry, this does not pass the sniff test!

Greece 2–The Domino Theory (Again)!

Inkwell Institute

International Studies Group

European Desk

I have listened to all those nay-sayers that see our rising deficit as a problem that will turn the US into another Greece….but is it possible that the US could face the same problems as Greece?  In the 60’s there was a popular theory, the Domino Theory, that stated that if one country in Southeast Asia fell to Communism, they all would….this is just an update of that old belief….if Greece goes, then Spain, Ireland and Portugal will follow…and because of a global economy and the rising debt in the US…it will fall too…..

According to David Leohardt of the NY Times:

The numbers on our federal debt are becoming frighteningly familiar. The debt is projected to equal 140 percent of gross domestic product within two decades. Add in the budget troubles of state governments, and the true shortfall grows even larger. Greece’s debt, by comparison, equals about 115 percent of its G.D.P. today.

But how accurate is that analysis?  Personally, I do not think it is that accurate….I feel it is just a conserv way of using the fear card yet again…..Greece is NOT having any form of recession recovery…the US is…while it might not be a great recovery, there are still signs of the economy trying to make a come back…..Greece is having NO such activity….

Yes the deficit is high and needs some control, but I do not see it banging the country down like that of Greece…as Paul Krugman wrote in the NY Times:

The U.S. economy has been growing since last summer, thanks to fiscal stimulus and expansionary policies by the Federal Reserve. I wish that growth were faster; still, it’s finally producing job gains — and it’s also showing up in revenues. Right now we’re on track to match Congressional Budget Office projections of a substantial rise in tax receipts. Put those projections together with the Obama administration’s policies, and they imply a sharp fall in the budget deficit over the next few years.

The US is NOT Greece!  For one thing Greece does not have its own currency that it could manipulate to help the problem, which would be one way to help, but instead they, Greece, will suffer through years of zero growth and massive cuts in services.  One reason is the Euro.  If you notice that the countries that are having the most problems, Portugal, Spain, etc have NO other currency other than the Euro….something to consider.