The Day After

I would like to state for all to read….I by no means think that Putin is anything other than a power mad prick and that Ukraine has every right to defend itself from invasion….I make this statement because according to several commenters seem to think that I may have sympathies for Putin and Russia….plus maybe now the questions asked will be answered and the inevitable support for Ukraine can be taken off the table….but we will see.

This post poses the question…..what will happen if and when a peace agreement is settled between Ukraine and Russia? (I know I know Putin is a prick….long live Zelensky….blah…blah….blah)

What does the situation hold when it is declared over?

Allies do not agree on what comes next….

In nearly a year of war in Ukraine, NATO allies have tried to present a united front.

“It is in our security interest to support Ukraine,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told NPR last month at the organization’s headquarters in Brussels. “If you look across the alliance, there’s a strong, continued support on both sides of the Atlantic.”

That’s true. There are also some big divisions. The most obvious is disagreement over what kind of weapons to send Ukraine. But there are also differences over how the conflict should end and what role — if any — Russia should play in a post-war Europe.

In December, French President Emmanuel Macron made waves when he said NATO would eventually have to address Russia’s security concerns.

“How do we protect our allies and member states?” Macron said in an interview on French TV. “By giving guarantees for its own security to Russia the day it returns to the table.

For NATO allies in Eastern Europe, the notion of making security pledges to a nation that has relentlessly shelled Ukrainian cities is stomach-churning. It’s also personal. They spent decades under Soviet domination.

“This kind of rhetoric coming from the Western leaders plays into the Kremlin’s narrative,” says Linas Kojala, who runs the Eastern Europe Studies Centre, a Lithuanian think tank.

This situation brings me back to my question from day one….What does the US hope to get for its massive and blind support for Ukraine?  I believe Ukraine had that since 2014.

There is so much more to this conflict that anyone is willing to ask about for their views are given them by the MSM that they refuse to look any further.

As I have stated cracks in the situation are starting to form….

Over one year since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, there are growing differences between Washington and Kyiv on how to move forward in the conflict,POLITICO reported Sunday.

One issue is over Bakhmut, the eastern Ukrainian city where Russian and Ukrainian forces have been locked in battle for over eight months. Biden administration officials think Ukraine has expended too many resources defending Bakhmut and worry it will impact their ability to launch a counteroffensive this spring, but officials in Kyiv have decided to keep fighting for the city.

Another point of contention is over Crimea as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insists they will retake the peninsula, which has been under Russian control since 2014 and is populated by people who are happy to be part of the Russian Federation.

US-Ukraine Unity Is Cracking Apart

Let us say the war ends….will Ukraine return to its former glory?  Before you answer think about other US involved wars…Haiti, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iraq….have any of them been improved by our involvement?

America’s twenty-year involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan demonstrated that nation building is often more expensive, prone to failure, and politically unpopular than expected at the outset. The State Department’s Afghan Stabilization Assistance Review acknowledged the difficulties nation building poses and found that there was no appetite in the American public for such ventures in the future. Yet today, less than two years after the Afghan withdrawal, the United States and its European allies are faced with a nation building exercise more expensive and at least as extensive as those of the past two decades.

NATO’s pursuit of the long war risks pushing Ukraine past a tipping point beyond which it’s economy may never recover. Revitalization of the Ukrainian economy would even have been difficult had the war ended in 2022. Continuation of the fighting and the introduction of more destructive and lethal Western arms risks making Ukraine a permanent economic vassal state of the United States and the EU.

Even the hawkish Rand Corporation in their review of the costs and benefits of the long war acknowledged the tradeoff between continued fighting and the additional cost and difficulty to revitalize the Ukrainian economy post-war.

Existing estimates of reconstruction costs are enormous. The National Recovery Plan that Ukraine’s National Recovery Council put forth in July 2022 carried a $750 billion price tag. In January 2023, Ukraine President Zelensky put the cost to rebuild Ukraine at $1 trillion. These estimates are several times that of the $150 billion in all forms of aid that the West has extended to date. They also exceed by a factor of five or more the size of the post-World War II Marshall Plan, $150-160 billion in today’s dollars, and the $145 billion that the U.S. government spent on rebuilding efforts in Afghanistan.

What if the West Can’t Put Ukraine Back Together?

Maybe Einstein was on to something.

And do you presume we will field most of the cost?

Did the US and its handlers really just make an addict to US funds?

From the time Ukraine declared independence on August 24, 1991, until the Maidan coup of February 2014, Ukraine was essentially a binational kleptocracy that used its position as a buffer state, particularly in its role as a transit hub for Russian natural gas to Europe, to the advantage of its kleptocratic elite—a coterie of deeply compromised politicians and former Soviet-era functionaries-turned-oligarchs

The tension between the Russian East and Galician West came to a head during the Maidan protests when then-president Viktor Yanukovych, a politician from eastern Ukraine, sought to leverage Ukraine’s unique geographic position during the country’s E.U. accession bid—a bid against which Russia, with long and deep economic ties to Ukraine, furiously objected.

Ukraine’s Endgame

Maybe that answers my original question of oh so many months….what will the return on investment for the US?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”


12 thoughts on “The Day After

  1. I’m sure the Ukrainian oligarchs have already got most of their money out of the country. When and if the war ends, Ukraine will be flat broke, and dependent on being propped up by the West. Maybe that was the plan all along?
    Best wishes, Pete.

  2. No matter how this thing between Ukraine and Russia ends up, the Republicans will find a way to screw it all up and make everything that we have invested in it of no import.

  3. One might assign this war being fought according to two simple principles… for Ukraine and it’s allies (the U.S. as well) the goal is to maintain the status quo of what it was before the Putin invasion. Putin, on the other hand, is in it to change the Russian status quo, albeit hardly for economic reasons (he’s made that a far worse ‘status quo’ for his own people) and far more about alleged safety and security reasons to satisfy his own empire-building ego. The question then becomes, what defines the status quo that Putin wants to change and Ukraine and it’s allies want to save?
    Trying to explain that makes the entire concept of “simple principles” far more complex… and we haven’t even gotten to the idea of “how does this thing end?”.
    The Iraq and Afghanistan nightmares in their attempt to country-build were nightmares and ended up perfect examples of what not to do. While the Congressional MAGA GOP want to roast Biden over the Afghanistan exit under the emotionalism of those 14 soldiers killed in the evacuation.. they might consider what to do about Bush and his then Intel bunch getting us into Iraq over false pretenses, and into Afghanistan, both causing far more deaths.

    We might look to the end of WW2 for some guidance… and I don’t mean just the Marshall Plan. The post-war Europeans wanted to get back to capitalism and democracy. Afghanistan, Iraq, et all, are all bogged down with being tribal Muslims and had/have no previous cultural desire for any Western democratic and economic reforms. Ukraine wants into the European sphere because they were previously ‘near’ there and ready to join the EU and NATO.

    Speaking of Iraq.. again found a historical tidbit for you, chuq. Been a good week for these.

    1. It is the same story almost every time….our involvement turns into a clusterf*ck. There is so much more to this story than the media wants us to know…..and that is called indoctrination in my book. chuq

      1. Can’t really deny the cluster f*ck result of our national military encounters. Not sure I can share your media conspiracy though. Who’s making the media indoctrinate us?

      2. A little research will show that we only get certain types of news on this situation…..we basically get pro-war for the most part. Comments here will illustrate just how entrenched those ideals have come. chuq

      3. But doesn’t being anti-war in all cases feed the idea that it should always be “peace at all costs”? Depending on the terms, of course, would not some “peace” indeed be a surrender?

      4. Of course it is….semantics….peace can be found but external forces egg it on for self-interests. Most times it is greed. chuq

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