Tag: Eastern Europe

Closing Thought–13Nov18

As a grad of international relations I find our country’s leaders are woefully misinformed…..this time it was Our Dear Supreme Leader “Trump”……he gets confused easily…….

President Donald Trump confused the Baltic states in Europe with the Balkans—and chastised leaders of the former for starting wars in the 1990s that lead to the break-up of Yugoslavia, French daily Le Monde reported.

Trump reportedly made the mistake in a White House meeting with Dalia Grybauskaitė of Lithuania, Kersti Kaljulaid of Estonia and Raimonds Vējonis of Latvia in April.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-confused-baltics-balkans-and-accused-confused-leaders-starting-yugoslav-1210939

In case you also are confused let me help out with a couple of short videos…….

In case the confusion is still there….yet another video……

Did any of that help in the understanding?

Class Dismissed!

Fort Trump–Polish Version

We know just how much Our Dear Leader truly appreciates things that make him look good.  He likes to be complimented…….and he likes real estate deals….Like North Korea would be a good spot for condos….and now the East European country of Poland has massaged the ego of Our Dear Leader…..

Poland’s leader pressed President Donald Trump on Tuesday to consider creating a permanent American military base in Poland, offering a tempting incentive: The installation would be called “Fort Trump.” Polish President Andrzej Duda extended the invitation during a one-on-one meeting with Trump at the White House that focused heavily on the US presence in Poland as the country faces Russia’s increased military activities in the region, the AP reports. Trump said during a joint news conference with Duda that he was considering the idea and noted that Poland had offered more than $2 billion to the US to pay for such an effort. Duda, for his part, came away confident that he had taken a major step toward lining up a permanent American military base in his country.

“I was smiling when talking to Mr. President. I said that I would very much like for us to set up a permanent American base in Poland which we would call Fort Trump,” Duda said through a translator, prompting Trump to raise his eyebrows and smile. “And I firmly believe that this is possible.” Seeking a check on Russian aggression, Poland wants the 3,000 US troops now deployed in Poland on a rotating basis to be upgraded to a larger, permanent presence. A decision from the US could come early next year. Security, trade and energy topped the agenda as Trump welcomed Duda to the White House for the first time. Duda credited Trump for making Warsaw the first stop on the US president’s inaugural European trip last year and said Trump’s outdoor address in Poland was a “very important moment” for the relationship between the two countries. Trump said the two leaders agreed to bolster defense, energy and commercial ties, adding that the alliance between the two countries had “never been stronger.”

In reality, the cost putting a US armored base in Poland on a permanent basis is going to be several hundred million dollars per year, and while Poland’s cash may make the initial move into the country cheaper, it will quickly be another costly mission for the US with no end in sight.

Let’s look at it from another angle…….We know that Trump enjoys his name branding….so how much will he make off a “Fort” bearing his name?  His ego must be flying high right now.  Trump Tower, Trump steaks, Trump wine, Trump Vodka and now a Fort Trump…..

Closing Thought–13Aug18

It seems that Russia still has designs on Georgia (the country not the state) even after their 2008 mini war……a decade on…..

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/08/08/looking_back_on_the_russian-georgian_war_10_years_later_113698.html

……and since their troops are still present the US is making demands……

In comments on Tuesday, State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert called on Russia to withdraw its military entirely from the two breakaway Republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The US does not recognize the regions’ independence.

The comments come 10 years after the brief Russo-Georgian War, during which Georgia attempted to attack South Ossetia, ended up fighting Russian troops therein, and fairly quickly lost. In the aftermath, Russia recognized the independence of both regions.

The regions are a long-term problem for Georgia, which has ambitions for joining NATO. NATO clearly would never accept anyone as a member state who has existing territorial disputes with Russia, and accuses Russia of occupying parts of their territory, since this would mean an immediate NATO-Russia war.

The State Department insists they support Georgia’s “territorial integrity” as including those regions, and to the extent that continues, it also follows that Georgia will never be able to advance toward accession into NATO.

(antiwar.com)

Demand?  A country that has troops in 177 countries stationed on about 800 “bases” should not be making such demands…..maybe the US should lead by example not some infantile bullying.

Just a thought.

Turn The Page!

The New “Communists”

You guys know me if there is a history lesson or a political lesson to be told I am more than happy to give it to you.

Back in the days of the Cold War Eastern Europe was a hot bed of authoritarian Communists….Romania, Bulgaria, East Germany and even Poland had its share of tough Communists ……..fast forward to today and the rise of nationalism in Eastern Europe smacks of the days of Communism……

Call it electioneering, Viktor Orbán style.

In the weeks ahead of Hungary’s parliamentary election on Sunday, postboxes across the country delivered some welcome news — courtesy of the prime minister. One letter informed households that due to a one-time action by the government, their next gas bill would be reduced by roughly €38. Another, delivered to each of the country’s more than 2 million pensioners, contained about €32 in gift vouchers.

Much has been written about the assaults on press freedom and civil society by Central European governments in Budapest and Warsaw. Far less attention has been paid to a fact their critics prefer to elide: They keep winning elections.

https://www.politico.eu/article/new-communists-hungary-poland-viktor-orban-jaroslaw-kaczynski/

There are events unfolding in Europe that could have far reaching consequences………hold your nose to these events.

The History That Made Russia

Read and learn!  Professor’s classroom is now in session.

Russia has been an enigma few generations…..you cannot understand what makes Russia tick without understanding geography and history.  Once the reader can do that then Russia’s many international moves make sense.  Like why Eastern Europe came under that influence of the USSR after World War Two.

But war defined and made Russia the country it is today.

Mother Russia. The largest country in world, by area, is filled with allure, amazing biodiversity, rich history, and beautiful vodka-drinking women. It is also home to about 145 million people that comprise over 150 different ethnic groups, and at least 50 newspapers publish their voice in a language other than Russian. From 1283 to the present-day, Russia has slowly, steadily expanded its initial territory centered at Moscow east, west, north, and south. In 1835, Alexis de Tocqueville saw in Russia an alternative to the American democratic model that he observed firsthand in the conclusion of Volume 1 of his magnificent, two-volume book Democracy in America. Tocqueville observed of the Russians and the Americans:

“The American struggles against the natural obstacles which oppose him; the adversaries of the Russian are men; the former combats the wilderness and savage life; the latter, civilization with all its weapons and its arts: the conquests of the one are therefore gained by the ploughshare; those of the other by the sword. The Anglo-American relies upon personal interest to accomplish his ends, and gives free scope to the unguided exertions and common-sense of the citizens; the Russian centres all the authority of society in a single arm: the principal instrument of the former is freedom; of the latter servitude.”

https://www.realclearhistory.com/articles/2018/01/18/10_battles_that_shaped_russia_263.html

Russia was forged in the fires of war and it has not forgotten that…..it also helps explain most actions that the country attempts.

A Mexican Stand-Off

In case you do not read the whole post….this has nothing to do with Mexico or some damn silly wall…nope this is more about the stare down between the US and Russia.

-Just the noble American eagle is in a stare down with the aggressive Russian bear……mostly in Eastern Europe….at least for now…..

Both sides an trying to impress the other by throwing all their latest technology and war toys at each other.

Current tensions between Russia and NATO are leading many to carefully assess this question and examine the current state of weaponry and technological sophistication of the Russian military — with a mind to better understanding the extent of the kinds of threats they may pose.

Naturally, Russia’s military maneuvers and annexation of the Crimean peninsula have many Pentagon analysts likely wondering about and assessing the pace of Russia’s current military modernization and the relative condition of the former Cold War military giant’s forces, platforms and weaponry.

Source: Weapons & War Analysis: Russian Military vs US & NATO

With all the back and forth…..of course there will be a wealth of things to do to confront Russia without it becoming messy……the hawks want more confrontation…..doves want us to talk and negotiate…..and there is always someone with a better idea……

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis visited Ukraine last week in a show of support for the besieged Eastern European nation. And he issued a stern warning: “Despite Russia’s denials, we know they are seeking to redraw international borders by force, undermining the sovereign and free nations of Europe.”

Renewed Pentagon efforts to shore up Ukraine’s military and stepped up involvement in military exercises in the region are stark reminders that relations between Russia and NATO continue on a downward spiral.

Source: A Solution to Russia’s Standoff With the West? | RealClearDefense

Eastern Europe keeps getting more complicated….Ukraine, the Baltics and Belarus will be used by the Russians in their latest confrontation scheme…..

For the week beginning September 14, the Russian military will conduct its quadrennial military exercise called “Zapad,” the Russian word for “west.” Earlier Zapad exercises have caused great apprehension among the NATO nations, and this one will be no exception.

Zapad 2017 will be held in western Russia and into Belarus, a former Soviet satellite state that borders three NATO-member nations, Estonia, Latvia and Poland. The Russians say that their forces participating in Zapad 2017 will number only about 15,000 troops but NATO reportedly expects that they will number more than 100,000 along with their vehicles, armor and air assets.

Source: Vladimir Putin threatens Belarus – Washington Times

All in all this situation is a war of words and troop movements…..it will require scrutiny so things do not spiral.

Where The Hell Is Belarus?

A professor colleague approached me the other day he had read a paper that I had written years ago about a linch pin that I thought could start a major conflict (link below is a short post I did for IST on this theory)…..

Source: Looking For The Linchpin – In Saner Thought

My friend is an expert on the ex-Soviet Union, he teaches a class on late Russian history….anyway wanted to debate my premise for he thinks that the focal point will indeed be in Eastern Europe but he thinks it will center around Belarus….after about 2 hours of debate we both came away with our theories in n tact…it was a draw.

But he made some excellent points so I decided to do some research on my own……

  • After seven decades as a constituent republic of the USSR, Belarus attained its independence in 1991. It has retained closer political and economic ties to Russia than have any of the other former Soviet republics. Belarus and Russia signed a treaty on a two-state union on 8 December 1999 envisioning greater political and economic integration. Although Belarus agreed to a framework to carry out the accord, serious implementation has yet to take place. Since his election in July 1994 as the country’s first and only directly elected president, Aleksandr LUKASHENKO has steadily consolidated his power through authoritarian means and a centralized economic system. Government restrictions on political and civil freedoms, freedom of speech and the press, peaceful assembly, and religion have remained in place. The situation was somewhat aggravated after security services cracked down on mass protests challenging election results in the capital, Minsk, following the 2010 presidential election, but little protest occurred after the 2015 election.

Belarus said on Thursday it suspected Russia was trying to restore a formal border zone between the two countries, a move it said flouted agreements on freedom of movement and trade and raised questions about Moscow’s real intent.

Belarus spoke out after the publication of three decrees signed by Alexander Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), that ordered border zones to be set up in three Russian regions adjacent to Belarus.

Source: Belarus says suspects Russia trying to restore post-Soviet border | Reuters

During my research I found a good paper written for RealClear……

Tensions between Moscow and Minsk have increased dramatically in the last two years as the countries’ tenuous relationship has deteriorated to the point of a regional crisis that mirrors the events in Ukraine. After Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko began exploring closer relations with the West because of high Russian oil prices, Russian media has ratcheted up an information war designed to spoke fear that Belarus is trying to follow Ukraine in aligning with the West.

Source: Belarus: Rising Fear That Country Will Be the Next Ukraine | RealClearInvestigations

After my research I can see where my friend is coming from….but I still hold to my original premise.

The Satan Bug

Before I start the day’s post….I must say something but my lovely citrus trees…..

I start my Sunday with the photos of my satsuma harvest….for those in the South no explanation is necessary….but in case you have no idea…..a satsuma is a cross between a tangerine and an orange….a little sweet a little tart…

One side of a tree…….

 

I will get about a bushel off of the trees…..some fine organic fruit…..

The good news is that the tangerine harvest should be ready next month…..again I will get about a bushel……homegrown fruit tastes better than store bought…..

Now let me go on about the world around us…….

I know that we are all concerned on who will lead this country for the next 4 years but that does not mean that we should forsake all news to concentrate of the babble of the candidates….make no mistake at this late date it is nothing but babble…….but the loudest babble is that of Russia….ISIS is murdering people at an alarming rate and yet Russia situation is all consuming….at least in this election…..

Some news you probably did not get exposed to…….Satan has arrived!

A Russian missile design company has unveiled the first image of a new weapon in Russia’s arsenal: the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, nicknamed “Satan 2.”

The RS-28 Sarmat rocket “is capable of wiping out parts of the earth the size of Texas or France,” Russian state news outlet Sputnik reported in May.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borsiov said the Sarmat warhead was capable of destroying targets flying across both North and South Poles, Russian state news agency TASS reported Tuesday.
The missile will have a range exceeding 11,000 kilometers (6,835 miles), TASS said. The warhead will weigh 100 tons and is designed as a successor to the R-36M Voyevoda.
According to a statement posted on the maker’s website, “the Sarmat is designed to provide strategic Russian forces with a guaranteed and effective fulfillment of nuclear deterrence tasks” and is being co-developed with the Russian military.
(CNN)
An image published by the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau of the RS-28 Sarmat rocket, or 'Satan 2.'
And then there is the response by the West……

Nato states are pledging troops to a Russia-deterrent force in the Baltic region, amid concern that Russian warships, due to refuel in Spain, are to join strikes on Aleppo.

Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato chief, said that defence ministers from Canada, Germany, the UK, and the US would, in Brussels on Wednesday (26 October), “set out their plans for the battalions they will lead” and that other allies would “confirm their contributions” to the deterrent force.

Source: NATO States Pledge Troops to Russia-Deterrent Force | World Affairs Journal

All the talk is that there is NO new Cold War…..but the actions taken by the two sides seem to look like it to me……chest thumping like sex starved primates.

Our choices in this election does not fill me with a warm fuzzy feeling of optimism…

Any thoughts?

The New Iron Curtain

Does anyone remember the term “Iron Curtain?”  If so where did it originate?  (insert Jeopardy music here)…….times up!

At the end of WW2 Winston Churchill said that there was an Iron Curtain dropping across Europe and it remained in use until 1991……thus the beginning of the now infamous Cold War…….

I bring this little shout out of history because it is happening all over a gain…..the NATO (US) and Russia are partnering up to form alliances against one another….NATO is putting more and mor etroops into Eastern Europe and Russia is beefing up defenses against the build up….ergo….a “NEW IRON CURTAIN”

A foreign army consisting of 31,000 soldiers from an anti-American alliance are conducting military “exercises” a few miles from San Diego. Hundreds of tanks converge on the Rio Grande, while jets from 24 countries converge in attack formation, darting through Mexican skies.

It isn’t hard to imagine Washington’s response.

Yet that’s precisely what has been happening on Russia’s border with the NATO alliance, as the cold war returns. Economic sanctions aimed at sinking Russia’s fragile economy, plus a propaganda campaign designed to characterize Russian President Vladimir Putin as the second coming of Stalin – or, in Hillary Clinton’s view, Hitler – have history running in reverse. Once again, an iron curtain is descending across Europe – only this time it’s the West’s doing.

Source: The New Iron Curtain – Antiwar.com Original by — Antiwar.com

And it does not appear as if this is an isolated incident…..a curtain is falling around the globe….it is almost looking like a game of “Risk”……

Will the election cure this problem?

Not a chance….period!

All Quiet On The Eastern Front

Several years ago I was writing a white paper about the Caucasus region of Eastern Europe…..I was working a a linch pin point that could possibly start another major world war……

When I was in university I studied international relations especially war and conflict management…..and since my interests in war and its causes I have always looked for that linchpin that could cause the world to explode in an all out war …..a war to end all wars……

A couple of years ago I wrote a synopsis of a paper that I was working on about the linchpin theory….in my theory the South Caucuses would be the most likely region that could start this war of all wars……read for yourself…..

Source: Does War loom in the South Caucasus? – In Saner Thought

The Caucasus region is a relatively compact area centered on the Caucasus Mountains. The foothills to the north and some of the steppe connected to them form a northern border, while the southern border can be defined by the extent of the Armenian plateau. The Black Sea in the west and the Caspian Sea in the east form natural boundaries in those directions. It is a territory of immense ethnic, linguistic, and national diversity, and it is currently spread over the territory of four sovereign nations.

The region, formerly contained within the boundaries of the Soviet Union, is in the early twenty-first century spread over four nations: the Russian Federation to the north; and the three republics of the South Caucasus, also known as Transcaucasia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The Russian part of this area is divided into several ethnic jurisdictions: Adygea, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya, and Dagestan.

I bring all this up now is because the fighting and the violence in the Caucasus region is hit a low point….there are still lots of animosities there but the violence is down…..because of one reason……

Russia’s North Caucasus insurgency has gone relatively quiet, as Moscow crushed militants and many left to fight in Syria and Iraq. But longstanding grievances remain and the war may only have widened, as evidenced by the bombing of a Russian airliner in Egypt and the emergence of new groups swearing allegiance to the Islamic State in Russia itself.

Source: The North Caucasus Insurgency and Syria: An Exported Jihad? – International Crisis Group