Tag: Conflict Resolution

How To Handle The North Korea Situation

This situation with North Korea is getting a bit redundant…..this will be the last pot for now on NK that is until something new breaks….

I have offered my many opinions on how to handle the North Korean situation….and during those opinions I have had some dolt from the Right go off with something about the situation that has little to nothing to do with the situation.

These people seem to have the same opinion….”nuke ’em all and let God sort them out” mindset.  They offer little as far as an actual idea on how the situation needs to be approached.

First the report that came out over the last weekend……

China’s president delivered a direct message to President Trump: Ease up on the North Korea rhetoric. In a phone call with Trump Friday night, Xi Jinping said he wanted both sides to avoid “words and actions” that would make the situation worse, per the BBC, citing Chinese media. The White House statement on the call said the two leaders agreed that North Korea must stop its “provocative and escalatory behavior,” though it didn’t mention Xi’s plea to Trump as well. The call came after Trump made a series of aggressive statements directed at Pyongyang on Friday, the most recent one saying that the North would “truly regret” any missile launches toward Guam. The North, meanwhile, ramped up its own rhetoric on Saturday with a boast that 3.5 million people have volunteered to join the military to fight the US, reports the Washington Post.

“All the people are rising up across the country to retaliate against the US thousands of times,” said a newspaper. Meanwhile, China isn’t the only nation worried. Japan installed missile interceptors, South Korea is speeding up the process needed to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile-defense system, and Germany’s Angela Merkel voiced concern after one of Trump’s tweets, saying, “I consider an escalation of rhetoric the wrong answer,” per the Guardian. Despite his aggressive language, Trump also has spoken of a non-military outcome. “Hopefully, it will all work out,” he said Friday. “Nobody loves a peaceful solution better than President Trump, that I can tell you.”

3.5 million have signed up to fight…..now if that report is accurate it is something to think about…..has any American felt such patriotic fervor and signed up?

All The News Of North Korea

Since my Asian Desk is pretty sparse…I need to do lots of research to get up to speed ……maybe it will help my reader as well…..

The words of war are flying around the airways…..there are those that would like an attack on NK as a “must”…..but those mental midgets do not think beyond their own bravado….

As the rhetoric continues to pick up around North Korea, the talk of military options, or worse the “military solution” increasingly appears to center around the conceit that there is some possibility for a limited war, or some other way that the US could make a quick attack on North Korea and fix everything militarily.

Experts, however, broadly agree that’s simply not the case. North Korea has spent the last 60+ years worrying about a US attack, and preparing to retaliate with everything that they have. This retaliation, even before factoring in North Korea’s nuclear program would destroy much of South Korea, and likely kill upwards of a million people.

That threat of massively destructive retaliation was always the ace up North Korea’s sleeve that kept them from getting attacked in the first place, sort of a mutually-assured destruction build around conventional arms and the fact that the huge, and economically important, city of Seoul is so close by.

The theory that the US could precisely take out North Korea’s small nuclear arsenal and resolve the situation, then, is clearly preposterous on its face, as North Korea’s retaliatory capabilities are substantial and were built long before the nuclear program.

While pretty much any preemptive attack necessarily will provoke retaliation, a US strike on North Korea’s nuclear sites would certainly provoke an even bigger one, as the North Korean government could only interpret it as the start of an American war of regime change.

(antiwar.com)

The NK situation is far more complex than the simpletons in the Trump admin would have you believe.

There needs to be a place where the news of NK can come together and readers can have it all in one place and NO need for the Google button.

Maybe I can help……

Not all reporting follows the paradigm that the Pentagon, Trump and the MSM wants to get out to the public.

Further reading for those that have an inquiring mind….lots to read but it will,give the reader a better picture of the situation than by listening to the MSM and the alt-Right…..enjoy

Source: North Korea, Nukes and Negotiations – Geopolitics | Geopolitical Futures

Source: North Korea Leaves Us With Only One Good Option | World Affairs Journal

Source: Only Morons Believe What the US Government Says About North Korea

Source: Newsweek Exclusive: North Korean Missile Claims Are ‘a Hoax’

Source: Why a war with North Korea is unlikely | North Korea | Al Jazeera

All aspects of this volatile situation need to be presented so that NO wrong thinking can be invaded into to the process.

War: Could The “Golden Arches” Be The Answer?

There are times when I need a few moments of insanity and when that occurs I turn to the tellie to ease my troubled brain…..I was watching an ad for the new movie about the founder of the world famous McDonald’s franchise…..when something snapped in the deep recesses of my mind…..”Golden Arches”……”Golden Arches”?

I intend to pass on some of the theories I studied in school and believe me there are a wealth of them.

I recall when studying conflict management and resolution in college there was a theory that involved the “Golden Arches”…(thinking….thinking…..thinking)…..finally as I sat at my desk thinking it came to me….BAM!…… in a flash of inspiration….The “Golden Arches” Theory of Conflict Prevention….

Anyway while we were studying conflicts this came up as one of those WTF? theories…..after all there are as many theories here as hairs on your butt……

Let’s get to it….shall we?

The Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention was proposed by economist Thomas Friedman as a way of explaining how globalization affects foreign policy and conflict. Essentially, the Theory points out that no two countries that both have McDonalds franchises have ever gone to war. The reasoning behind this correlation, Friedman says, is that once economies become sufficiently integrated, both the cost of going to war and the amount of contact between two countries will increase. Both these factors lead to more effective conflict resolution, as states will attempt to pursue the more economically beneficial option. Friedman’s argument echoes the main suppositions of the democratic peace theory, which states that democracies never go to war. Friedman’s analysis simply takes this argument further in his economic emphasis, although he places a similar amount of emphasis on the role of domestic society in influencing a government’s willingness to go to war.

See….even international relations geeks have a sense of humor…..

A fascinating theory but a bit much….there are problems with this…….

The Golden Arches Theory has not held true in all cases, and explanations to explain these inconsistencies vary. In some cases, the increased contact between two countries due to integration may actually exacerbate points of contention between the two states, leading to more opportunities for conflict. Or, the difference may lie in the type of government in power: a democratic government may follow the Golden Arches Theory, but the Theory may break down when confronted with cases of nondemocratic or authoritarian regimes. The Golden Arches Theory assumes that governments respond to the desires of their constituents for economic stability and that the government knows it will be held accountable in the case that it does not provide for the economic well-being of its citizens. In the case of an authoritarian or nondemocratic state, leaders may not experience these dilemmas, causing them not to act in accordance with the Golden Arches Theory.

Now you know more than most about international relations and conflict resolution.

You’re welcome.

How to Engage North Korea

In recent weeks there has been an uptick of chest thumping by the GOP and their leader over what is happening in North Korea.

I do not normally keep my attention on the Asia region but there is too much macho bullshit coming from Foggy Bottom.

I a always on the outlook for a problem that could lead to the ultimate use of force…war.  And the language around North Korea is starting to worry me.

The US has depended on sanctions for damn near 30 years now and so far it has done little to change the situation in any way…..maybe it is time for a re-think.

The Trump administration has yet to fill out its foreign policy team—but the international challenges won’t stop. There is broad agreement that North Korea is one of the central problems, if not the biggest challenge, facing the new president.

The government of Kim Jong-un won’t give Washington a break. The latest mid-range missile test was routine, if unwelcome. But the apparent public assassination of Kim’s half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, with deadly VX nerve agent at Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur airport, demonstrates a willingness of the North Korean regime to ostentatiously flout the international sensibilities of friend and foe alike.

Source: How to Engage North Korea | The American Conservative

But since a re-think is probably out of the question…we can always use our stand-by plan……

The Trump Administration, and Deputy National Security Adviser K.T. McFarland in particular, are seeking “outside the mainstream” options for dealing with North Korea, according to reports, and that among these options would be attacking North Korea outright.

While the US has kept a large number of troops on North Korea’s border for generations now, but has long centered that deployment on deterrent factor, keeping the two sides, though technically still at war, from too much direct fighting with one another.

McFarland requested multiple options along with the usual one, citing a “fresh series of provocations” from North Korea, including a possible US military attack on North Korea and also the possibility of just recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state.

(antiwar.com)

It is truly sad that there are only two options open to the masters in DC…sanctions and/or war…..

How long?

After writing this draft further NK news has come to light……

North Korea on Monday fired four banned ballistic missiles that flew about 620 miles, with three of them landing in waters that Japan claims as its exclusive economic zone, South Korean and Japanese officials say. The move was an apparent reaction to huge military drills by Washington and Seoul that Pyongyang insists are an invasion rehearsal, the AP reports. It was not immediately clear the exact type of missile fired, but the tests will be viewed as a provocation by the Trump administration in Washington, which is working on its policy for North Korea.

At least one of the missiles landed as close as 190 miles from Japan’s northwest coast, leading Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo to condemn the “extremely dangerous action,” which he noted was clearly in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions, Reuters reports. US national security adviser HR McMaster and senior South Korean presidential official Kim Kwan-jin held a phone conversation after the missile firings. The two condemned the launches and agreed to boost cooperation to get the North to face more effective sanctions and pressure, according to South Korea’s presidential office.

North Korea fired four ballistic missiles this morning; they traveled almost 1,000 km towards the Sea of Japan

Time to get serious about North Korea….lip service has accomplished little….time to get serious.

Why Washington Is Addicted to Perpetual War

I have over the years asked myself that same question….why is America addicted to perpetual war?

Make NO mistake it is an addiction…one that we cannot seem to shake…….it is a real shame that we cannot be addicted to education  with the same intensity….

Of course one argument is that war is extremely profitable….but with all the intellectuals there are in the field of conflict management there should be some sort of plan or policy that would prevent the US from jump from one war to another…..without end.

The last two administrations have followed a bipartisan policy of constant war. Unfortunately, the consequences have been ugly: every intervention has laid the groundwork for more conflict.

Yet the architects of this failure claim that all would be well if only Washington had acted more often and more decisively. In their view, the problem is not that America goes to war, but that it doesn’t go to war nearly enough.

This approach is based on the belief that Washington is capable of solving every international problem. If only unnamed bright people implemented theoretically brilliant strategies backed by unidentified resolute citizens, terrorism would be suppressed, ISIS would be defeated, Russia would be compliant, Iraq would be successful, Syria would be peaceful, Libya would be united and China would be respectful.

Source: Why Washington Is Addicted to Perpetual War | The National Interest Blog

Conflict management is the practice of being able to identify and handle conflicts sensibly, fairly, and efficiently……all qualities that the US does not possess….until we learn this then we will remain in a perpetual footing for war.

A Framework for Analysing International Conflict Management

If you are a math wiz…then maybe this will help……work it out for yourself with a pencil………….(calculator is allowed but please show work)……

To test for the effect of the history of the conflict within a broader context that can control for factors that have been linked to the outcome of mediation, we have specified two multivariate logit models of the conditions contributing to mediation successes. Success for these purposes was operationalized in terms of the outcome of mediation efforts in which at minimum a ceasefire was secured, or at the other end of the scale, a full or partial settlement of the dispute was achieved. We specify two models from which these tests are performed. The first accounts for the conditions associated with successful conflict management attempts; the second disaggregates a specific type of conflict management — mediation — into the different approaches adopted by mediators. The functional form of the models are as follows:

Y1= a + X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 + X5 + e

and

Y1= a + X1 + X2 + X3 + X4 + X6 + X7 + e

where

Y1 = Success of Management (0,1)

X1 = Enduring Rivalry (1 if part of enduring dyad; zero otherwise)

X2  = Power Disparity (absolute value of disparity between power of

      actor A minus power of actor B; range 0-34)

X3 = Tangibility of Issue (1 if tangible; zero otherwise)

X4 = Intensity of Conflict (fatalities/month)

X5 = Management Type (1=mediation; zero=negotiation)

X6 = Directive Strategy (dummy, 1 if directive; zero otherwise)

X7 = Procedural Strategy (dummy, 1 if procedural; zero otherwise)

These two models reflect concerns over the conditions most conducive to successful conflict management, with Model 1 emphasizing, inter alia, the effect of different approaches to conflict management and Model 2 the different strategies that are adopted by mediators.

I like to be thorough……you are welcome.

Like any addiction…it can be ended…but only if we want it to be…..

And right now….WE DO NOT!

The election of 2016 will do nothing to end this addiction….no matter which of the pathetic losers wins…..(and I bet neither one has a pencil with them)….

How to End the Refugee Flood – The Unz Review

Oh boy!  Let’s talk about the hottest button issue this week.  NO not the rise of Trump but rather that of the refugees…..you know that situation that has the hate mongers and fear mongers working overtime…..to spread as much misinformation as possible before the world moves on…..

But first how about a little historical perspective?  (you knew that was coming, right?)

Remember when America erupted in fury over France’s refusal to support the US invasion of Iraq in 2003?  President Jacques Chirac and Prime Minister Dominque de Villepin warned that George Bush’s unprovoked aggression against Iraq would destabilize the Mideast and inflict untold dangers on Europe. America’s response to the sage warning was to change the […]

Source: How to End the Refugee Flood – The Unz Review

That is right…..the problems facing the world today can all be traced back to the West’s misadventures in the region.

I know few want to hear that, you know American Exceptionalism and all that fecal matter….but when the facts are known the results are overwhelming…

Probably has something to do with that old adversary….KARMA!

A solution for Syria?

I have posted on the mess that is Syria……now the obvious next question….

The big question on the lips of many a Middle East analysts is……Is there a solution for Syria and a larger Middle East?

If you are an avid reader of blogs and other outlets then you will know that there are about as many solutions to the Syrian situation as there are grains of sand…..everybody has an opinion ranging from radical neocon conflict solutions to the far Left and the non-interventionists views….

This is a detailed analysis that is well worth the effort to read…..interesting in some spots and a bit too idyllic in others…..if you are interested I have link to the two part article by Bassma Kodmani of the Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Center…….

Source: A solution for Syria (part 1) | openDemocracy

Source: A solution for Syria (part 2) | openDemocracy

I know it was a bit steep at points….but I do hope that you enjoyed the read and have come away with a bit more understanding……

Refugees are a hot button issue worldwide……here is a thought……if you knew more about a solution to this problem then maybe the refugee crisis would not freak you out so badly…..that is unless you just want to HATE!  Then there is nothing I can say or do that will change your mind…..and if that is the case then maybe you should learn to live with bad decisions…..

Like I said….just a thought.

Trouble Brewing Across The Border?

Thanx to Trump you would assume that I am referring to our Southern border with Mexico, right?

Well you would be mistaken…..you see there is a problem brewing on our Northern border…..you know the one with Canada…….

It appears the the US and Canada are standing off about ………lobsters.

This might be news to Americans who don’t make their living catching lobsters, but the US and Canada have been arguing for decades now over who owns two islands in the Atlantic between Maine and New Brunswick. They’re called Machias Seal and North Rock, and the islands themselves aren’t of much use to any creatures other than puffins, explains Maclean’s. The problem is that the water around them, called the “gray zone,” is flush with lobsters, and tensions are rising between lobstermen from the two countries. It’s been especially bad lately because lobster prices are rising. “Somebody is going to get killed,” says the chair of the Maine Lobster Zone Council. “We’ve had bad years in the past and got lucky, but this is the worst year I’ve ever seen.”

Both Maclean’s and the CBC explain that locals on both sides of the border have mostly kept things under control for years. (In one high-profile exception, an American lost his thumb in equipment eight years ago while “jostling” with a Canadian over territory, notes Maclean’s.) This year, however, outsiders from Nova Scotia have moved in to fish the waters, too, and they’re reportedly ignoring long-held rules about who gets to work when. “When you’ve got Canadian guys feuding with other Canadian guys, on top of us—that’s a flare-up, too,” a Maine lobsterman tells the CBC. Both governments claim sovereignty, and neither seems willing to budge.

Could this turn into a Blood Diamond sort of thing?  Will our fave luxury become known as “conflict lobsters”?

This could dispel the old saying that Canadians are too polite for their own good?

Can America afford yet another conflict it must fight?

The battlefield will contain a couple of bureaucrats from both having an old fashion slap fight…..but will it make the nightly news?

Iraq: It Will Come Out In The Wash

Inkwell Institute

Middle East Desk

Yes, Iraq is a bloody mess!  And as usual there is a wealth of people that have opinions on how to handle the situation…..people like the two media whores of Perry and Paul……the real problem is that neither have any idea of what it is like other than what they are told or read and as typical of those type of people they are like that puppy chasing a ball whenever it is tossed regardless of what it is doing at the time.  NO ONE should give either of these two any acknowledgement of authority on the subject.

When one studies international relations that deals with conflict management or conflict resolution……it deals mostly with situations that devolve into a shooting war and when it does in ,most cases it is too late for management and then the next step is to try and resolve the issue and that is going to take time and cost many lives in the process.

While watching the Middle East and the turmoil get deeper and deeper….I thought of the Reformation (yes, I look for a historical perspective in my writings on the Middle East)…….back in the 16th century many religious types started questioning the Papacy and the Church….this lead to Martin Luther and his famous list tacked to the door of a church….then others followed…Calvin, the Puritans, Henry VIII, the Huguenots to mention a few and these schisms lead to violence……Charles persecution of the Puritans, the 30 years War, all of which were sectarian violence…Christian against Christian….silly right?

Now fast forward to present day………sounds a lot like the Reformation when people fought over religion…in Iraq it is basically Sunni versus Shi’a…….not much different from Protestant versus Catholic of the 16th century……

My point is that maybe the Western world should step back and allow the Iraqis sort this out for themselves.  If the US gets involved it will be seen as us taking sides in a religious war and that cannot work well for us.

Iraq needs to work this out between the different factions…….that is the only way there will ever be stability in the country….without it then a dictator will return…..and we can start this play all over again.

Then there is ISIS or ISIL or IS which ever you prefer…….they are acting like they are together and capable of ruling the region….that is delusional…..why?  The Sunni tribes.  We needed them for the “surge’ to succeed and ISIS will need them for their “caliphate” to succeed.  Unfortunately the Sunni tribes will never allow ISIS to be the law of the land……True that the Iraqi government is in shambles and at best a joke……

America needs to keep our noses out of this situation……our intervention will help NO one but those corporate interests that are scalping the Iraqi economy……I mean think about it….have you heard of any plans to bomb Switzerland?  They are neutral, in case the geography eludes you.

Yep, we are probably looking at the division of Iraq into 3 separate states…..you know kinda like what Joe Biden suggested back in 2008 and was laughed at and call naive……Iraq needs to handle their own problems and not go screaming for help every time they are challenged from within…….this is a religious dispute and it should be handled by the players not the watchers……..it will come out in the wash and not a single additional American life has to be sacrificed.

But here is a prevailing opinion that Iraq should be allowed to break up……..and for good reason……Prof. JK Choksy…..Iraq is really three separate geographical regions, now contested by Kurds and Arabs ethnically, Arabic and Kurdish speakers linguistically, and Sunni and Shiite Muslims religiously. Ethnically Iraqis are approximately 75 percent Arabs, 20 percent Kurds, and 5 percent Turkmen and Assyrians. Religiously they are 65 percent Shiite Muslims, 30 percent Sunni Muslims, and 5 percent Christians and Mandeans. Monarchs and dictators held the tripartite configuration together for nine decades as modern Iraq. Without their iron fists enforcing coexistence, bloody fault lines are sundering the artificial nation back into its customary divisions.

Iraq’s current national boundaries arose from British action through a League of Nations mandate in 1920. It was also the British who, influenced by notions that Shiites were fanatical and uncultured, vested authority in the new nation’s Sunni minority. The colonial masters bequeathed rule to the Hashemite prince Faisal of Mecca and Istanbul, who had previously ruled for less than five months in Syria before being forced out by the French. Several attempted and one successful coups d’état, followed by another British occupation, quickly demonstrated how unstable Iraq really was.

History should have warned of the horrors to come when colonials are allowed to make the borders….for they set up the region for turmoil….it took almost 100 years but ….”you asked for it..you got it”.

Personally, No matter which decision the US makes…….and BTW, everyone needs to stop accusing the prez of inaction and for good reason…….the Middle East will change.

As the US debates its future in Iraq, all eyes are on President Obama—but where we should be looking is Capitol Hill. Yes, congressional leaders recently said Obama needed no new authorization for further military action in Iraq. “But they’re wrong,” writes Rachel Maddow in the Washington Post. The Founding Fathers gave “the responsibility for war and peace to the clamorous Congress.” The War Powers Act puts power in Obama’s hands for 60 days; after that, it’s up to lawmakers to decide whether to authorize additional troops.

The Constitution puts Congress in charge “so that decisions about war and peace would be made not on one person’s say-so but only after vigorous national debate,” and we need that debate on Iraq. There is a precedent here: A year and a half after the US departure from Vietnam, North Vietnam planned a new offensive, and President Ford sought $700 million “to stabilize the military situation.” Lawmakers’ views on the matter were clear: “Congress knew that it was in its power to say no, and it said no. There would be no second coming of America’s war in Vietnam.” Click for Maddow’s full piece.

Now what about ISIS……..eventually the Sunni tribes will take on ISIS and destroy it.  At present they are using the militants as a hammer against Maliki…..once they exact their revenge on Maliki for treating the Sunnis like crap….they will turn on ISIS and set them on the lamb.

One final question….how many Americans are we willing to throw at a problem that we CANNOT fix?

Resolving Conflicts in Artificial States | Ivan Eland

Most of the world’s hot spot are what are called “artificial states….meaning they were created willy nilly without much regard to culture or ethnicity…….borders drawn on geopolitical reasons only……

With Iraq and Syria and now back to Ukraine….the question has been asked….how can we resolve these problems without violence?

Personally, I do not think it can be solved without violence…..this is an excellent piece on just such worries……an interesting read…try it…you’ll like it.

 

Resolving Conflicts in Artificial States | Ivan Eland.