The US for far too long has threatened China over Taiwan…..originally it was over the Chinese doings in the South China Sea but then the focus went to Taiwan (I guess there was more of a case they could make for going to war over the island nation)…..for the past 3 or more years the war drums have been beating and now under Donny the pressure is being put on our Asian allies to get on-board….
The Pentagon is pressing Japan and Australia to make clear what role they would play if the US goes to war with China over Taiwan, the Financial Times reported over the weekend.
The report said that the Pentagon’s policy chief, Elbridge Colby, has been pressing the issue in recent meetings with Japanese and Australian officials, an effort that has frustrated officials in Tokyo and Canberra.
Appearing to confirm the report, Colby said in a post on X that the Pentagon is implementing President Trump’s “America First” foreign policy by “urging allies to step up their defense spending and other efforts related to our collective defense” in both Europe and Asia. “Of course, some among our allies might not welcome frank conversations,” he said.
Colby is a China hawk and a major proponent of the US preparing for war over Taiwan despite the risk of nuclear war. The FT report said that his meetings with Australian and Japanese officials were Colby’s latest effort to convince allies in the region to “raise deterrence” and prepare for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Sources told the paper that the US has been asking allies to raise military spending, but the request for commitments related to a potential war with China was a new demand. The US is for clarity on the issue despite maintaining a policy of strategic ambiguity over the question of whether or not the US would intervene if China attacked Taiwan.
There has been lots of crazed macho chest beating over the situation and massive assets have been moved into the region for the coming conflict and in return China has been beefing up their forces and assets in response
All the pieces are being put into place and the wait begins.
So is how firm is the commitment to Taiwan?
At first glance, Washington’s informal but very real commitment to defend Taiwan and preserve its de facto independence seems quite secure. Over the past decade, Taipei’s security relationship with the United States grew steadily closer – with strong bipartisan approval in the United States. Not only was that development apparent during Donald Trump’s first administration, but also, to the surprise of many experts on East Asian affairs, the trend persisted throughout Joe Biden’s presidency.
The prevailing assumption was that Trump’s return to the White House would be very good news for hardliners in Taiwan who want to push the envelope on independence. Elbridge Colby, the official whom Trump chose to be undersecretary of defense for policy in his second administration is renowned for being an avid supporter of Taiwan. Indeed, Colby embraces a hardline approach toward Beijing on a range of issues throughout East Asia.
However, Trump’s early statements indicated that Washington’s support for Taiwan’s security was far from unconditional. He immediately pressured Taipei to raise its yearly defense spending – reportedly to 5 percent of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP). That is the same demand Trump is making to all members of NATO, and it is consistent with the U.S. president’s rhetorical commitment to an “America First” foreign policy overall. One of his complaints dating from his 2016 presidential election campaign is that too many U.S. allies engage in “free riding” on Washington’s military exertions. Trump’s insistence on greater “burden sharing” by America’s security clients has been a consistent theme of his tenure in the White House.
Muscle flexing 101….
Nearly 40,000 troops from 19 nations, including the US, have converged on northern Australia for the largest Talisman Sabre military drills ever, sending a hard-to-miss message about unity in the face of China’s growing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region. The live-fire drills held over three weeks involve artillery, rocket launchers, and tanks from the US, Australia, South Korea, Japan, and other allies, the Wall Street Journal reports. “Everyone is seeing the aggressive activities that China is doing,” said Lt. Gen. Matthew McFarlane, who commands the US Army’s I Corps. “That’s why they’re more interested in what they need to do to protect their sovereign interests.”
The scale and diversity of the force, which includes partners from Europe and across Asia, reflect growing concern over Beijing’s actions in the region. China’s military buildup and recent maneuvers—including live-fire naval drills near Australia and increased activity around Taiwan and the South China Sea—have spurred the US and its allies to expand joint exercises. This iteration features new elements: the debut of America’s Typhon missile system west of the International Date Line, drone operations inspired by the Ukraine war, and the first Talisman Sabre activity in Papua New Guinea. A ceremony kicked off the biennial event on Sunday.
Can the US afford another lengthy war?
How will the conflict be met by the American voter?
At what point is enough enough?
Just wondering.
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”
Before any consideration of a shooting war with China, they need to look seriously at just how huge the population of that country is. Their current standing military is enormous, then they have reservists and militia units in the background. That’s before they even begin conscription in time of war. They have state of the art aircraft and warships, and the country itself is far too big to even contemplate invasion. Attacking China would be a huge mistake, comparable to Hitler invading The Soviet Union, and Napoleon invading Russia. The US could not defeat North Vietnam or Afghanistan, and they most certainly would not be able to defeat China in a conventional war.
Best wishes, Pete.
Us getting into an armed conflict with China… I shudder to even think of the consequences. Our entire military simply isn’t prepared to deal with modern combat. It seems to be rooted firmly in WWII thinking. Afghanistan and now Ukraine have proven that the US’s idea of “military might” is obsolete. We continue to dump hundreds of billions of dollars into high tech weapons systems that are fragile, incredibly complex. difficult to maintain and repair. and nearl impossible to replace in actual combat conditions because we don’t have the manufacturing capability to keep up with the needs of a long term conflict. Just this relatively minor conflict in Ukraine and now in Israel has depleted out weapons stockpiles to the point where we would have difficulty defending our own territory if we needed to, and even at this relatively low level of usage the weapons manufacturers can’t keep up with demand. A British owned F-35 fighter has been grounded in India for almost a month because of technical problems. A month sitting on the ground because of a relatively minor hydraulic problem. In an all out conflict we’d probably burn through our entire stockpile of high tech weapons in a few weeks, and that would be it, we’d be done.
Meanwhile the weapons that are doing the most damage in the Ukraine conflict are cheap, disposable drones that cost a few hundred to a few thousand dollars.
I agree with all the examples….but the M-IC has congress deluded that we can do it….makes profits keep rolling in chuq
They also have a different mindset, which involves moving as part of a single organism. That can be deadly to anyone not familiar with it.
addendum. I have never been more pleased to be old. I feel sorry for those people in their 40s and 50s who will be around to watch this play out.
I agree….my daughter is in her 50s and I see her struggling but barely getting by….chuq
Given Trump’s propensity to say one thing but do another ( Ukraine ) it’s surprise anyone is willing to ally themselves with the U.S. anywhere in the World.
Yes, this. One thing that Trump has proven to the world is that no one, not even our allies, can trust the US to follow through with its promises.
THat is true…..but we still have a few bucks to throw their way….can help the sting of his stupidity. chuq