Everybody had lots to say about the Ukraine/Russia thing and now they have a new war to thumping their anemic chests over……but while they were rant and raving and insulting anybody that disagrees with them Trump’s old buddy Kim is looking for a fight.
Two of America’s most prominent North Korea experts, Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker, begin their latest analysis with this sentence: “The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950.”
They believe Kim Jong Un has decided to “go to war.” Unlike past years, recent belligerent North Korean statements don’t appear to be bluster. If these experts are right, the longstanding US-South Korean strategy of nuclear deterrence is failing.
In their view, Kim has abandoned North Korea’s long-sought effort to normalize relations with the US. He is now willing to challenge the US-Republic of Korea strategy that relies on Kim’s rationality—his understanding that war would mean the total destruction of his regime and his country.
Why now? What accounts for this extraordinary shift in N Korean thinking?
Carlin and Hecker contend that it entails, first, the North Korean belief that “the global tides were running in its favor,” due to the US being bogged down in Ukraine and the Middle East; second, that unification with South Korea is impossible, and that North and South Korea are now belligerent nations; third, that N Korea can rely on Russia for support.
Are these experts right? A surprise attack on S Korea would seem like madness. But Kim Jong Un’s strategic calculation may be that with the US weighted down by military commitments elsewhere, and North Korea now possessing the capability to reach the mainland US with a nuclear weapon, his country can deter a US nuclear response to a North Korean attack.
In doing so, he not only risks the end of his regime but also a regional war that would involve China and Japan. The possible destruction in such a war is unimaginable.
Is North Korea Preparing for War?
Is this a possibility?
Some in the rat race of DC thinks it will happen.
US officials now believe that North Korea will conduct a lethal attack against South Korea, according to the New York Times. Washington assesses that Pyongyang will attempt to limit its attack to avoid a full-scale war.
North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un could take lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months, American officials told the Times. “The officials have assessed that Kim’s recent harder line is part of a pattern of provocations, but that his declarations have been more aggressive than previous statements and should be taken seriously.” The article continues, “While the officials added that they did not see an imminent risk of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, Kim could carry out strikes in a way that he thinks would avoid rapid escalation.”
While you were off counting the number of people on the Southern border Kim is silently making his plans for a quick and decisive strike South.
But that is not important right now….we have lots to say about the border….if we snooze, we lose.
I am sure that there will be plenty of whining and ranting once he makes his final decision….at least you guys will know it was coming.
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”
In Saner Thought 
N K, they know they’ll be incinerated . They will probably continue to blackmail and extort from the West and continue to supply Russia and Iran with weapons to increase filling their treasury which finances even more mischief. The problem with nukes – use a dozen or two and radiation will drift in the atmosphere of entire planet and then contaminate air, land and sea. Their war is everyone’s catastrophe.
He is chest thumping looking for concessions from the West…..we will see if he is all talk. chuq
reasonable assessment
Again….thank you chuq
I’ve been wondering the same thing for some time now. What I find especially troubling is the pace at which NK has been developing new weapons systems in the last few years. It’s gone from being armed with little more than WWII era rifles and artillery to nukes (maybe), ballistic missiles, sub launched missles and now cruise missiles.
I find myself wondering how they’ve been able to do this in the first place. NK isn’t exactly a center for technological innovation. Nor does NK have the money to just buy the stuff. I don’t believe they’ve been doing this on their own. I suspect they’ve cut a deal with Putin and that Russia is behind this sudden burst in improved weapons technology.
Would NK risk attacking SK or someone else? It’s difficult to say. NK is perpetually on the brink of financial ruin. It might have some fancy new toys to play with, but it doesn’t have the manufacturing capability or the money to actually produce enough of those toys to go to war. If it does attack someone there is a significant danger that it would literally be bombed into the stone age in a matter of days. It doesn’t have the infrastructure to fight a sustained military action.
That doesn’t mean Kim wouldn’t pull the trigger, though. Is he crazy enough do to it? I have no idea.
I found you you went to my Spam dfo9lder for some reason…you are cleared to comment any time….
Kim is chest thumping like a sex crazed primate….he thinks the China and Russia will cover his butt….I think he is deluding himself….i8f push comes to shove Kim will stand alone in the end. chuq
Yep, if he’s thinking Putin and Xi will back him he’s sadly mistaken. Putin will only engage with him if it benefits Putin. Xi has his own problems right now. Evergrande was just forced into bankruptcy, a $300 billion default. Some people claim it’s closer to $500 billion. That’s going to possibly tank the Chinese economy, and Evergrande isn’t the only one in trouble. There are a half dozen other major corporations right on the brink. With the US and Europe pumping billions into battery manufacturing China’s going to be losing one of it’s major sources of income. Taiwan just elected an anti-Chinese president despite heavy Chinese interference with the election. I doubt very much if Xi is stupid enough to get involved with NK right now.
Like I said I think it is more chest thumping than reality. chuq
thoughtful assessment
Thanx chuq
Hmm, looks like Word Press is acting up again. It seems to have just eaten my comment.
I thought I had it trained better. LOl chuq
wars and rumors of wars….all symptoms of the evolution, rise and fall of civilizations.
Kim is chest thumping right now and we cannot be bothered to do anything. chuq
I can imagine Kim flexing his muscles by a border incursion or direct attack on South Korean troops. But it is a gamble that completely relies on China and Russia supporting such an action. If they leave him to his fate, he doesn’t stand a chance of winning. Let’s hope he is just a bad bluffer.
Best wishes, Pete.
I think he watches too much poker on TV…..a bad bluffer. chuq