By now everyone has heard about the invasion of Southern Israel by Hamas….(if not then return to your lair under that rock)
How did the world’s best intel group miss the signals?
I have heard that said about the intel capabilities of the Israeli groups….so the question needs to be asked….how did these great intel groups miss this invasion?
As war unfolds in the Middle East following the unprecedented surprise attack on Israel by Hamas militants, one question is being asked repeatedly: How did Israeli intelligence—and that of its Western allies—have no idea this was coming? Some takes, which in many cases assume the form of further unanswered questions:
- At CNN, Joshua Berlinger gives historical context: “It has been more than 17 years since an Israeli soldier was taken as a prisoner of war in an assault on Israeli territory. And Israel has not seen this kind of infiltration of military bases, towns and kibbutzim since town-by-town fighting in the 1948 war of independence. How could a terror group from one of the world’s poorest enclaves manage to launch such a devastating attack?”
- At Politico, Jamie Dettmer cites reports that more than 2,200 rockets were fired into Israel from Gaza during the initial hours of the attack; planning is thought to have taken months or even years. “Hamas would have used its vast network of tunnels that link the enclave to Egypt, but how did it smuggle in the materials needed for such a huge attack without Israel catching wind of the traffic? And how did Israeli intelligence fail to notice Hamas was making and assembling thousands of home-grown Qassam rockets?”
- Writing for the Times of Israel, Jacob Dallal suspects “the disunity in Israel created by the legislative overhaul weakened Israel’s deterrence and likely played a role in Hamas’ calculation to attack. Separately, talks of peace with Saudi Arabia may also have put pressure on Hamas and the axis of evil led by Iran to launch war in an effort to torpedo normalization that would have left them isolated in the Arab and Muslim world.” (A rep for Hamas told the BBC Iran provided support for the attack.)
- At the Wall Street Journal, Dion Nissenbaum writes that “recent Israeli intelligence assessments of Hamas” got it wrong, believing “the militant group had shifted its focus to trying to stoke violence in the West Bank and that it was looking to avoid launching major attacks from Gaza in an effort to avoid the kinds of punishing Israeli military responses that have devastated the isolated area in the past.”
- Nissenbaum spoke with retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, who said, “I’m confident we [the US] had no intel.” At the Atlantic, Gal Beckerman digs into that line of thinking, pointing out that just 9 days ago, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said, “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades. … Iran’s nuclear-weapons program, the tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. But the amount of time I have to spend on crisis and conflict in the Middle East today, compared to any of my predecessors going back to 9/11, is significantly reduced.”
Somebody has got some explaining to do. Boy would I love to be a fly on the wall at that meeting.
Stay Tuned!
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”
Israel is currently suffering from widespread political corruption, the far right wing element in politics is becoming increasingly influential and disruptive. High ranking politicians are under investigation for corruption and other crimes and despite that still using their influence with far right religious groups to get themselves elected. Fundamentalist religious groups are staging disruptive protests and are demanding special treatment. Far right politicians are trying to push through changes to the country’s justice system which would prevent the courts from stopping abuses of power by politicians. As a result of all of this there is a great deal of infighting and chaos going on behind the scenes in all areas of government. Basically it’s a miniature version of the US politically speaking. Under conditions like that governments simply cannot work efficiently. I’m not at all surprised that there have been failures in their intelligence networks.
It does sound like a micro-America. chuq
My theory is that they knew, and allowed it to happen to justify the retaliation. But they probably didn’t expect it to be so well-planned and effective. Heads will roll in Mossad, (or equivalent) I’m sure.
Best wishes, Pete.
There’s a thought….push until someone pushes back….great plan chuq
I would like to know just how secure we are here in the United States …I don’t see a public bomb shelter anywhere …and who knows how many of those migrants storming the borders might be hamas operatives just itching to get in here and begin random mass shootings or worse.
John I think that is a stretch….Hamas has bigger problems than to aim at the US….they are not that incompetent. chuq
If there are sleeper cells inside the USA, I would not put it against them to do a little strategic murdering right here on our own streets.
I do not think that Hamas gives two shakes about the US…but anything is possible. chuq
They are always shouting, “Death To Israel, Death To The United States” so where do you get the idea they don’t give two shakes about the US?
HAMAS (with Iran’s assistance) engineered this event to elicit an overwhelming response from the Israeli’s. Such a desired response is designed to enrage the Israeli population to allow other parties to ‘intervene’ to ‘protect Palestinians’. I think we’ll find that complacency and distraction were the root causes for missing indicators and warnings for this attack.
Shin Bet should have been more competent. chuq
Of course.