I am guessing that most people have heard the news of the mercs and Putin mash-up….but all in all just what the Hell happened?
Let me catch you up….
If you blinked and missed the headlines on Saturday, the news out of the Russia-Ukraine war will cause a double-take on Sunday. Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin of the Wagner Group declared an open rebellion against Vladimir Putin, brought his tanks about 120 miles from Moscow, then abruptly called off the coup and said he was leaving for Belarus after the Kremlin promised not to prosecute him. The head-spinning developments have analysts all over the world scrambling to assess. Examples follow, but perhaps the big one to keep in mind comes from Alexander Vershbow, a former US ambassador to Moscow and a current deputy secretary general of NATO. “We can speculate all we want, but the fact is we have little idea of what happens next,” he tells the Washington Post.
- Weaker Putin: “Whatever the outcome of this weekend’s astonishing drama, Putin looks weaker than at any time since he became president in 2000,” writes Luke Harding at the Guardian. “His decision to invade Ukraine has proven a major strategic blunder—the biggest of his career and one that may, sooner or later, force him from power.” In terms of the war itself, the weekend developments “dramatically” raised the chances of a Ukrainian military breakthrough, he adds.
- Weaker Putin, II: The above sentiment is widespread. “Putin has shown he can no longer maintain order among his warlords,” per an analysis at the Economist. “He has been greatly weakened by the challenge—and in his world weakness tends to lead to further instability.” John Simpson, world affairs editor at the BBC, similarly sees this as evidence of “real, real weakness in Putin’s rule.”
- The aftermath: Peter Baker of the New York Times agrees that the near-coup suggests “Putin’s hold on power is more tenuous than at any time since he took office more than two decades ago.” But those rooting for his downfall should be wary. “Weakness begets riskier behavior on Putin’s part,” says Jon Huntsman Jr., a former ambassador to Russia under former President Trump. “There’s a new ripple in Putin’s ‘invincibility,’ which will be exploited from every angle.”
- No winners? A Wall Street Journal assessment by Yaroslav Trofimov suggests both Putin and Prigozhin emerge weaker. The rebellion did fall short, after all. “The entire system has lost yesterday, including Prigozhin, who is also part of the system,” says Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. “It turned out that the czar is not a real czar because he couldn’t control a man from his own system who’s supposed to be under his full control.”
- The timeline: A timeline by the New York Times shows how the near-rebellion unfolded in real time. It includes a map showing the progression of Prigozhin’s tanks.
- At root: Prigozhin, whose group has fought some of the deadliest battles on behalf of Russia in Ukraine, has lately become a scathing critic of Russia’s military strategy and of its justification for the war. He has demanded the ouster of Russian defense chief Sergei Shoigu, per the AP. As of Sunday, Shoigu was still in his post. Prigozhin has accused the Russian military of deliberately targeting Wagner camps with rockets and artillery.
How safe will this dude be in Belarus considering they are an ally of Russia?
Will he fall out a window? Or maybe some mysterious sickness?
This ain’t over until it’s over.
You are now caught up on the Russian thing…..
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”
I cannot remember a single autocrat like Putin who was not eventually taken down by his own self-deluded nature. (Unless you want to include Trump in the mix. Trump might be the first dictator in history to survive his own arrogance.)
What about the dude in charge of Wagner Group? chuq
It is patently obvious that Pregoshian or what the hell ever his name is has already been taken down by his own self-deluded nature and is now in exile in Minsk — or somewhere — at this point nobody knows exactly where he is …but I am thinking that if he thinks he is safe in a close Russian ally like Belarush, then he is pissing in the wind.
The CIA will intervene like they did in Libya back in the 80’s with Haftar and his break with Qaddafi. chuq
If either of them are still able to function…Putin hasn’t been heard from in two days now … neither has the Pregoshian guy
We could build a great conspiracy around that. chuq
I’m sure a lot of money changed hands, and also that the Wagner Man will be looking over his shoulder for the rest of his life. No doubt he will have an ‘accident’ in Belarus. Meanwhile, Russian helicopters were brought down by Wagner mercenaries near Voronezh, and Wagner armoured vehicles destroyed by the same helicopters. Now Putin says they have to sign Army contracts to avoid prosecution, but most of them don’t want to do that.
It is all still a mess.
Best wishes, Pete.
Going to bed an interesting story to follow chuq
Like most, I’ve been trying to muddle through the events with some sort of reasoning for it all. I am tempted to assign it all to the typical idiotic and incompetent Russian mindset in general, and Putin specifically, with Prigozhin not far behind.
But try this out for size…
A few weeks back the media had been reporting speculation about some build up of forces in Belarus to make another attempt at Kyiv…. then came the move of tactical nukes to Belarus by Putin, especially under Belarussian control (which I am not sure that’s even occurred or was just rhetoric).
The thought crosses my mind that this entire “rebellion” was just contrived to get Prigozhin into Belarus to take command of such a force. Consider…. Putin has no real competent commanders (nor reliable troops) in the field to command another invasion at the Ukraine border above Kyiv. Putin wants Kyiv badly. If Putin wanted to move Prigozhin and his 25,000 Wagner force to Belarus it would have brought a LOT of attention. So… someone dreams up a plan by which Prigozhin declares his discontent publicly and threatens a rebellion… that not even 24 hours later a “deal” is suddenly made that makes it look like Lukashenko brokered a “peace” to allow an “exile” of Prigozhin to Belarus. In the meantime the existing Wagner forces are somehow “integrated” into the Russian military.. which seems to give nice cover to transport them all to Belarus without drawing attention.
Now.. I am not sure I even buy into all this myself simply because I don’t credit Putin, or any other Russian, as being smart enough to pull off a plan like this intentionally. Also.. in the last 6-9 months of the war I’ve oft wondered if the CIA might not have sent someone to make contact with the pissed off Prigozhin in an effort to exploit his discontent. I am NOT suggesting the CIA had anything to do with recent events. I am just wondering out loud.
Kinda sounds like the Libya-Chad thing from the 80s. chuq
Yet not anything to do with the Florida-chad thing, right? 🙂
Only if it was a machine made in Russia….chuq