Is Ukraine A Stalemate?

Probably not.  (Semantics)

More like an impasse.

Impasse: a predicament affording no obvious escape.

That is my thought….no matter how much equipment and money that is poured into Ukraine this situation will only be settled by negotiations….the only thing a prolonged war accomplishes is more death and destruction.

But stalemate is liberally used in this case….

But stalemate often involves large and bloody battles. The Battles of the Somme, Verdun, and Passchendaele took place in conditions of stalemate. Hundreds of thousands were killed in those battles that moved the front lines a little, but not much. And stalemates can ultimately be broken, as the one in World War I eventually was. One side or the other can lose its will. One side or the other can gain a new ally (like the US in World War I). One side or the other can gain a technological advantage, although that’s less common (and was less important in World War I than the entry of the US). One side or the other can just be ground down and collapse (like Russia in 1917). Many things can happen in the context of a huge amount of fighting and dying, all in conditions of stalemate. That is the most likely course of action we see in Ukraine right now.

Our assessment that the Russian campaign has culminated and that conditions of stalemate are emerging rests on our assessments, laid out carefully in many fully documented reports published on our website (not just maps) and increasingly validated by reports from various Western intelligence communities, that the Russians do not have the capability to bring a lot of fresh effective combat power to the fight in a short period of time. The kinds of mobilizations the Russians are engaging in will generate renewed fighting power in months at the earliest. Unless something remarkable happens to break the stalemate now settling in, the stalemate is likely to last for months. Hence our assessment and our forecast.

All sides seem to want this conflict to go on and on… how may this situation be resolved….

Ukraine’s war reaches the one-year mark with no immediate end in sight. Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. So how might the war end? Here are five scenarios to consider.

Then there is the BS about the tanks and planes will change the direction of the conflict….not gonna happen.

Western and NATO countries promised to send modern weaponry to Ukraine. As U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin put it, the intent was to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to drive Russia out. As signs indicate a Ukrainian spring offensive may soon launch, many Western military analysts claim that a sufficient amount of Western armor could turn things around for Ukraine. A careful analysis reveals such optimism may be misplaced.

Bad News: NATO Tanks, Planes, and Artillery Unlikely to Win Ukraine War

All that is left now in Eastern Ukraine is to start digging the trenches….(a WW1 reference in case you are confused….which you probably are….)

How will this end?

And the war drags on….and on….

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

19 thoughts on “Is Ukraine A Stalemate?

  1. Here’s the problem with negotiating, as I’ve said before. Any and every concession will have to come from the Ukrainian side of the equation. The most that Russia would ever do (without doing so under duress) is pull out of Ukraine. Which is exactly what they should do. All calls for negotiating is doing, is demanding that Ukraine is surrender sovereignty of their own national territory.

    And as I’ve also said before…what is the point of demanding another nation do something that we would not accept for ourselves?

  2. The only way to negotiate with Putin is to give him everything he demands. This war will not be settled by negotiations. This war will be settled only by time and the neutralizing of Putin’s influence in Russia.

    1. Dear Insurgent — Here are the reasons that I believe diplomacy is a fool’s errand when it is ever tried on Russia in regard to the Ukraine situation —

      Diplomacy can be challenging and often even impossible when dealing with a dictator who is unwilling to negotiate or compromise. Dictators typically have a strong desire to maintain their power and control, which can make them resistant to outside pressure or influence.

      I believe all the evidence shows that Putin is one of these stubborn adversaries.

      In some cases, dictators may view any attempt at diplomacy as a sign of weakness or as a threat to their authority. They may also use diplomatic negotiations as a tactic to buy time or to create the appearance of progress while continuing to pursue their own agenda.

      It is almost a certainty that if a cease-fire in Ukraine were to be negotiated through diplomatic means, Putin will use that time as a time to rebuild and strengthen his military with every intention of starting his aggression over when he feels the time is right.

      Furthermore, diplomacy often relies on mutual trust and respect between parties, which may not exist in a relationship with a dictator. I believe that there is not a single reason in the world to trust Putin.

      A dictator may not have any interest in building a relationship of trust or cooperation with other countries, and may instead view diplomatic efforts as a way to manipulate or exploit the situation to their own advantage. I have never heard of Putin having the least bit of desire to building a positive relationship with the Western Powers.

      Overall, while diplomacy can be an effective tool for resolving conflicts and promoting cooperation between nations, it may not always be effective against a dictator who is determined to have their every demand met. In such cases, other approaches, such as economic or military pressure, may be necessary to achieve the desired outcome and that is what is happening and that is the only way this thing is ever going to end … unless somehow .. by some miracle … Putin’s power is neutralized.

      The problem with that is that something worse than Putin might be coming on the other side of this coin.

    2. That is all so simple and wrong…..sancti9ons are not working so what we should do is just let the stupidity go on until something happens that makes Americans happy. chuq

      1. You are entitled to your opinions just like anyone else. But MY opinions and your opinions and anyone else’s opinions aren’t going to influence anything or change anything so let us continue our little preaching sessions on the Internet while we yet can and entertain as many as will listen because it is a damed certain thing that nobody we preach to is learning anything — otherwise we would have so many daily comments on our blogs that it would take us a week to answer. Very damned few outside our immediate sphere of experience seems to give a dam about anything that is truly important.

      2. You have every right to continue to write and rant and I hope that you do continue because most of what you write is very helpful. Very helpful!

  3. I have noticed less and less reporting of the conflict in Ukraine recently, at least on the TV news here. Perhaps the western allies will just become bored with it?
    I do agree with the article that new tanks and missiles are unlikely to give Ukraine much of an advantage. Russia has a huge manpower resource, and has currently only scratched the surface of that.
    Best wishes, Pete.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.