Cheering and joy embrace North Africa. Sorry to pee on the parade…….
Over the weekend the good news hit the airways….Qadhafi is on the ropes in Libya…..rebels made it to Tripoli…..3 of his sons were captured and Green Square in the middle of Tripoli has been re-named Martyrs Square….all is right with the world……
Let us say Qadhafi is captured or allowed to leave……then all the violence will be over…..WAKE UP! The ousting of Qadhafi is the easiest part of this whole revolution thing……Libya is a tribal society and not all the tribes like each other…..who will lead the country is more important than getting Qadhafi out…….none of the “democratization” process will be easy or even pretty….what will be the fate of the Libyan people?
Tribes loyal to Qadhafi will always be loyal to Qadhafi….and that simple fact will throw a monkey wrench into the new government….unless the opposition kills every person in the loyal tribes….there will be continuing trouble…..once the single unifying component is eliminating what is there to keep factions who hate each other bound together?
Now with a little taste of reality……the next question is…..who will interject their will into the internal politics of Libya? You know someone will….simply because Libya has a massive amount of OIL…..there it is the rub you were looking for….OIL! BP comes to mind and that would mean the UK…..and if that happens and the UK needs assistance……who will they call?
All in all….Libya and the political situation is far from over…..and the US participation is far from over…..in a country with very little institutionalization…..how will it survive without the “help” of Western countries? It is not over until it is over!
Personally, I will save my jubilation until there is a government in place and all the violence has ceased…..I believe I will have a long wait!
In closing……if Qadhafi is allowed to leave the country, where will he go? My predictions are……either Angola or Zimbabwe.
Yes, it’s another Iraqi-style situation. Best for us to stay on the side lines and offer diplomatic assistance with some financial aid to support anti-Qadhafi forces and those who do not have strong ties to terrorist groups.
Larry, I think Libya will be a bit different….there was no invading army so the people may have an easier transition than in Iraq….there will be NO blame but their own…now the tribes and all those arms will be their first priority….and good luck with that!
So true–I wouldn’t declare victory until he’s either dead or out of the country. The good news in this case is that there seems to be a credible and creditable government in place ready to step in.
We will see…….I stioll think that it will be more bang bang than good times….
You left a comment on my blog that there are 140 tribes. What do you think would be the best way to govern them? Yesterday, I saw this chick on the news channel for Libya. She had a gun just in case the rebels came and tried to take over. That’s some serious loyalty.
Spinny, that is the big question and since these people are doing without interference there is possibility they could find a way……The woman with the gun was arrested by the rebels….she was all talk and no action……
Spinny….this may help you to get a grasp on the Libyan situation….
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2011/08/23/analysis-who-are-the-libya-rebels
Don’t bet the farm that just because there was no invasion, that there won’t be nastiness. Libya is a cobbled-together European invention. Just like, for instance, Yugoslavia was.
Hi Jolly…..oh I agree….and I have warned that it is not going to be a pretty transition……and Yugoslavia was a good comparison…..