In the past I have had a running exchange with Quin of Quintessential Havoc (go to blogroll…a good site) about the possibilities for Afghanistan. I have said that I see so many similarities between Vietnam and Afghanistan, but recently I have heard some pundits compare the troop enlargement for Afghanistan to the surge that Bush gave to Iraq…..to be fair, the surge in Iraq was a success….but I do not think it was necessarily the troop build up as it was the Sunni tribes were fed up with the situation they were facing and they joined the US in the war……the American troops probably helped a bit but I believe it was the Iraqis that made the difference.
A surge in Afghanistan will NOT have the luxury of a tribe that will join in the fun….the differences in Afghanistan are ethnic not religious as they were in Iraq…there will be NO massive help coming from the Afghan tribes…..so anyone that tries to equate Afghanistan with Iraq will be missing the very point of the exercise……
Recently the president gave a speech on Afghanistan and set down what was what…..more troops and then in 18 months a draw down…that is the short synopsis…..myself as well as others doubt that the exit will start in 18 months and guess what…..all day this past Sunday on the media news talk shows the cabinet members were out explaining what the president had meant and he did NOT mean that we would be coming out of Afghanistan in 18 months, just that the Afghans would be expected to start shouldering some of the war…..the best thing I can say is…HA!
I still say that all the evidence points to the US and its friends will be in Afghanistan for another 3 to 5 years and it could be even longer, more like 10 years….and in the end all will leave and the Taleban will return…..
This is a war without end……..so the question should be when to leave…..before or after more deaths…..before or after the billions that will be spent……
Sun-tzu said: “All war is deception.”
If that one is not to your liking…how about Ernest Hemingway: “In modern war… you will die like a dog for no good reason.”
I never did like Ernest Hemmingway. However, that’s by the way and you knew I wouldn’t be able to keep quiet on this one.
Actually, I largely agree with you, I just think it’s the right thing to do – we probably shouldn’t have started it, but we did and now we are obligated.
I don’t entirely agree with you on the push in Iraq (no surprise there then, eh?) although I do accept what you say about the differences. In my opinion, although all you say about the Sunnis is undoubtedly true, but in many ways all that Bush finally sent into Iraq was what everybody who knows anything about such things told Rumsfeld to allocate in the first place, Sadly, he arrogantly ignored the advice and gave the impression he was insisting that such forces were quite unnecessary to beat a bunch of Arabs! He simply never understood the enemy or indeed the problem at all. Jerk!
I suspect you’re right that at least a much reduced US (and probably UK) force will be in Afghanistan for a long time, but if (and it is quite a big if) an effective across tribal lines force can be cobbled together and put to work, it will do a lot to turn Afghanistan into a proper country – a lot more than stupid ideas of democracy that are totally without hope or merit.
Individual people often don’t change that much over a lifetime, but A PEOPLE will often change over only a generation, if the conditions are right. That’s simply because youth always seems ready to embrace change and it’s up to us to demostrate to the coming generation that ours is a better way forward than the poverty, murder and mayhem that will result from following the Taliban. A tough one, but doable – maybe…
Quin you never disappoint…..lol….I was beginning to think that you were going to let this go without comment….whew…..I was mistaken…..
We have talked about this in the past……Americans do not understand the tribal mentality….and that was Rumsfield’s biggest screw up……nothing is impossible…but the US and friends will have to find common ground in the Pastu/Tajik divide….and that will be a massive undertaking……to make things worse…the general in Afghanistan has told Congress all will be right in a year (more to come on this)….
I think that it is doable…but I am afraid my grand daughter will be writing about this when just graduates from school….the American people will give Obama his 18 months but after that he is screwed if things do not look good.
Sorry about the quotes but after 40+ years of political writing I have a million locked away in my head and sometimes they just ooze out….
I am really enjoying reading your well written articles. It looks like you spend a lot of effort and time on your blog. I have bookmarked it and I am looking forward to reading new articles. Keep up the good work!
Welcome Nikon and Matthew….. am pleased that you guys enjoy the blog…..I try to make it as inviting to all as I can….appreciate your props….please visit often…
I am really enjoying reading your well written articles. It looks like you spend a lot of effort and time on your blog. I have bookmarked it and I am looking forward to reading new articles. Keep up the good work!
I can see that you are an expert at your field! I am launching a website soon, and your information will be very useful for me.. Thanks for all your help and wishing you all the success in your business.
I do not know if I am an expert…more like an opinionated SOB….lol…..thanx
I’ve been away for a long time and just had to stop in to see what are the opinions of the day. It seems you’re keeping up the good work!
Good thing I’m working non-stop this past year plus, or otherwise I would be beyond irate at what all my work to get Obama & Dems in power, is all for nothing.
If we could only learn from history, the parallels to the USSR’s adventures in Afghanistan are screaming to anyone willing to hear them, and get the hell out….
Check out Colbert from tonight, he’s got a new game…. Afghandyland!
take care!
Hans it is good to hear from you…last I heard you were in Colorado….thanx for stopping by……always good to hear from you…..dom not be a stranger….