The global economy is expected to lurch into reverse this year for the first time since World War II with appalling consequences for nations large and small — trillions of dollars in lost business, millions of people thrust into hunger and homelessness and crime on the rise.

And the pain won’t stop this year, the International Monetary Fund declared Wednesday, for what it said was “by far the deepest global recesssion since the Great Depression.” To cushion the blow and head off further damage next year, the IMF is calling for more stimulus projects from the word’s governments, including major spending for public works projects.

Okay, Obama and Geithner are saying there is a light at the end of the tunnel…..that they see signs of the recession beginning to recover and yet the IMF does not see tha same light.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner struck an upbeat tone on the global economy in a speech Wednesday, saying he’s already starting to see “some signs of stabilization of declines in output and trade.”

While the world economy is going through “the most severe crisis in generations,” recent actions taken by the Group of 20 leading nations during a recent London summit should make way for a sustainable recovery, said Geithner.

GM has announced that he will close most of its US operations for 9 weeks this summer, that alone will push the recession into a deeper hole.  Workers will have little cash to buy trhe goods that are not being made.

So why the difference in opinions?  Is the IMF right or is it Geithner?   Optimism is a wonderful thing, but is it false optimism or is there truly a light on in the tunnel?  None of the indicators I look at show any promise for the next 6 months….but then I did not win a Nobel Prize for economics…..I work.