Tag: The Surge

The Most Dangerous Country

As he leaves Iraq this week, the outgoing US commander, General David Petraeus, is sounding far less optimistic than the Republican presidential candidate, John McCain, about the American situation in Iraq. General Petraeus says that it remains “fragile”, recent security gains are “not irreversible” and “this is not the sort of struggle where you take a hill, plant the flag and go home to a victory parade… it’s not a war with a simple slogan.”

Compare this with Sarah Palin’s belief that “victory in Iraq is wholly in sight” and her criticism of Barack Obama for not using the word “victory”. The Republican contenders have made these claims of success for the “surge” – the American reinforcements sent last year – although they are demonstrably contradicted by the fact that the US has to keep more troops, some 138,000, in Iraq today than beforehand.

Playing down such killings, the Iraqi government and the US have launched a largely successful propaganda campaign to convince the world that “things are better” in Iraq and that life is returning to normal. One Iraqi journalist recorded his fury at watching newspapers around the world pick up a story that the world’s largest Ferris wheel was to be built in Baghdad, a city where there is usually only two hours of electricity a day.

The surge only achieved the degree of success it did because Iran, which played a central role in getting Nouri al-Maliki appointed Prime Minister in 2006, decided to back his government fully. It negotiated a ceasefire between the Iraqi government and the powerful movement of Muqtada al-Sadr in Basra, persuading the cleric to call his militiamen off the streets there, in March and again two months later in the Sadrist stronghold of Sadr City. It is very noticeable that in recent weeks the US has largely ceased its criticism of Iran. This is partly because of American preoccupation with Russia since the fighting began in Georgia in August, but it is also an implicit recognition that US security in Iraq is highly dependant on Iranian actions.

General Petraeus has had a measure of success in Iraq less because of his military skills than because he was one of the few American leaders to have some understanding of Iraqi politics. In January 2004, when he was commander of the 101st Airborne Division in Mosul, I asked him what was the most important piece of advice he could give to his successor. He said it was “not to align too closely with one ethnic group, political party, tribe, religious group or social element”. But today the US has no alternative but to support Mr Maliki and his Shia government, and to wink at the role of Iran in Iraq. If McCain supposes the US has won a military victory, and as president acts as if this were true, then he is laying the groundwork for a new war.

More Troops Out Of Iraq

Is this a moot point, since Bush will be back home in Crawdad, Texas on that date?  This seems more like a PR stunt to try and help McCain and whats-her-name.

As reported by the AP.

President Bush plans to pull 8,000 more combat and support troops out of Iraq by February, a measured drawdown that will leave nearly the same level of U.S. forces in the war zone for the rest of the year.

Bush’s decision, to be delivered in a speech Tuesday, is perhaps his final stamp on the war that has defined his presidency. The scope and pace of the U.S. troop withdrawals are smaller than long anticipated, reflecting a desire by the military and the president not to jeopardize security gains in Iraq.

By the time the troops return home on the timeline Bush is proposing, someone else will be making the wartime decisions from the Oval Office.

There are about 146,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. Bush hinted that more troops could return to the U.S. in the first half of 2009 if conditions improve.

“Here is the bottom line: While the enemy in Iraq is still dangerous, we have seized the offensive, and Iraqi forces are becomingly increasingly capable of leading and winning the fight,” Bush said in remarks prepared for delivery to the National Defense University in Washington.

So You Think That Anbar Was Saved By The Surge?

The possibility of sectarian strife grows daily.

The U.S. military handover of the Sunni Anbar province was hailed as a milestone, but the underlying sectarian conflict in Iraq could erase those gains.Iraqi national security adviser Muwaffaq al-Rubaie and U.S. President George Bush praised the handover as evidence the U.S. “surge” had led to sharp reductions in ethno-sectarian conflict, generating the conditions for improvements in the Iraqi political and security infrastructure.

Tribal leaders in Sunni Awakening Councils in Anbar province, however, warned the region “could be turned into another battlefield of sectarian forces,” Egypt’s al-Ahram Weekly reported Friday.

For his part, Abdul Salam al-Ani, an Anbar provincial councilman and member of the Sunni Islamic Party, blamed the Awakening Council with interfering in political affairs, and many view that position as an indication of fears the Sunni tribal leaders will gain political influence in the coming elections.

Anbar Is For Iraqis

Two years ago, Anbar Province was the most lethal place for the Americans in Iraq, with a marine or a soldier dying here nearly every day. The provincial capital, Ramadi, was a moonscape of rubble and ruins. Islamic extremists controlled large pieces of territory, with some so ferocious in their personal views that they did not even allow the sale of bread.

In the past two years, the number of insurgent attacks against Iraqis and Americans in Anbar Province has dropped by more than 90 percent. Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a homegrown Sunni Arab extremist group that American intelligence agencies have concluded is led by foreigners, has been severely degraded, if not crushed altogether. Since February, as the situation improved, American commanders have cut the number of marines and soldiers here by more than a third, they said.

The transfer of authority codified a transformation that Iraqi and American officers say has been in effect since April: the Iraqi Army and the police operate independently and retain primary responsibility for battling the insurgency and crime in Anbar. The Americans, who had long done the bulk of the fighting, have stepped into a backup role. With the transfer on Monday, Iraq now bears the primary responsibility for maintaining security in 11 of its 18 provinces.

The “good” news continues in Iraq, so maybe our troops can return home to their families.

Iraq Arrests Sunni Fighters

The government of Iraq is moving against the “Awakening” fighters that have helped make the surge a “success”.

The Shiite-led government is cracking down on U.S.-backed Sunni Arab fighters in one of Iraq’s most turbulent regions, arresting some leaders, disarming dozens of men and banning them from manning checkpoints except alongside official security forces.

The moves in Diyala province reflect mixed views on a movement that began in 2007 among Sunni tribes in western Iraq who revolted against al-Qaida in Iraq and joined the Americans in the fight against the terrorist network.

U.S. officials credit the rise of such groups, known variously as Awakening Councils, Sons of Iraq and Popular Committees, with helping rout al-Qaida.

But Iraq’s government is suspicious of such groups, fearing their decision to break with the insurgency was a short-term tactic to gain U.S. money and support. The government fears they will eventually turn their guns against Iraq’s majority Shiites.

Government officials would not comment on specific claims about the push in Diyala. But aides close to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, said the government was not willing to tolerate the existence of armed groups with “blood on their hands.”

“The continuation of the Awakening Councils as they are now is unacceptable,” said Ali al-Adeeb, a close al-Maliki aide and a senior member of his Dawa Party.

U.S. officers worry that disbanding the Sunni groups without providing alternate incomes could push the fighters back into the insurgency.

One Shiite official who is close to al-Maliki said the prime minister believes his successful crackdown this year on Shiite militias has given him enough authority to go after Sunni armed groups without alienating Sunni politicians.

But a lawmaker from the Iraqi Islamic Party, the country’s largest Sunni party, warned that the government must take into consideration the groups’ contribution to improved security.

Iraq’s Private Sector–It Sucks!

Yes, Irene, the surge can be said to be working, but unfortunately it has not help the private sector to resurrect.

Hampered by years of violence, a decimated infrastructure, a lack of foreign investors and a flood of imports that undercut local businesses, Iraq’s private sector, particularly its small non-oil economy, has so far failed to flourish as its American patrons had hoped.

In its absence, the Iraqi government has been sustaining the economy the way it always has: by putting citizens on its payroll. Since 2005, according to federal budgets, the number of government employees has nearly doubled, to 2.3 million from 1.2 million.

The impetus is not only economic: In exchange for abandoning the insurgency that plunged the nation into civil war, many of the 100,000 members of civilian patrols known broadly as the Awakening movement have been promised jobs in the security forces or in reconstruction, though many Sunni Muslim members complain it is not happening quickly enough.

But this growth has not come without problems. Already, a huge wage increase to government workers that was instituted — but then suspended because of fears that it was pushing up inflation — has underscored the difficulties of being far and away the largest employer in an unstable country.

Like so much else in Iraq, getting a job is complicated by politics and sectarianism. While the minority Sunni Muslims run a handful of ministries, they are all but barred from some others. The policy of de-Baathification, aimed at rooting out loyalists to Saddam Hussein after the American-led invasion, resulted in a de facto purge of high-ranking Sunni bureaucrats, a purge that continued informally in certain offices that were permeated by Shiite militias.

Yet More “Surge” Good News

Headed by Moqtada al-Sadr, a firebrand anti-Western cleric, the Mahdi Army has long controlled large swathes of the capital Baghdad.

Its decision to disarm, expected to be announced this week at Friday prayers, will help to further stabilise Iraq.

The document promises to adhere to the principles of the Mumahidoon – those who pave the way for the coming of the Mahdi, a messianic figure in Imami Shia Islam after whom Mr Sadr’s militia is named.

Analysts have speculated that the switch has come about because the Mahdi army has lost much of its popularity in recent months after failing to impose central discipline on its fighters, some of whom have turned to crime.

Yes, this will be seen and used as part of the surge is working campaign.

The Surge Is Working–So Stop Worrying

This has been the call of the McCain campaign for months.  The surge is working and all is well in Iraq.  Yes, the “surge” is working, but not because of anything that was accomplished by the US efforts.  Sunni tribes made it the fragile success that all are witnessing.

The lull of violence here has encouraged people to appear in the street, which used to be one of hottest turf war battleground when Baghdad’s sectarian conflicts were rampant.

Life seems to have gone back to normal here, where people jostle on the sidewalk; families spend good hours wandering in front of shops and stalls showcasing various goods; old men gather in cafes, smoking water pipes, drinking tea and socializing, while teenage girls stand giggling and gossiping in ice-cream shops.

The boost of U.S. troops, and uprising of Sunnis against al-Qaida and the ceasefire of a major Shiite militia are the major factors contributing to the security pickup.

The U.S. military says violence has dropped to a four-year low across Iraq. The Iraqi government is also calling for expediting the political reconciliation and the return of refugees.

However, doubt about whether it is a real and sustainable peace is still pervasive among Iraqis.

“I am not sure that we will have a real peace, because nothing tangible happened that may change the violent course of life in Baghdad. To me I think the reason behind the violence is that the country was not ready for the change the Americans and their allies want after the invasion, “said Nu’man Jabir, a 48-year-old electronic engineer.

The U.S.-led coalition forces handed over security control of the Diwaniyah province to Iraq on Wednesday, making it the tenth Iraqi province retrieved from the control among the 18 provinces in Iraq.

However, those ten provinces belong either to Kurdish or to Shiite Iraqis. In the mixed regions, like Baghdad, Nineveh and Diyala, the situation is still unstable and unpredictable.

In Baghdad, Sunnis and Shiites live in separate neighborhoods walled up by concrete. Checkpoints still strew the streets.

“I agree, the walls are effective in protecting the neighborhoods, but my district seems more like a prison or a military camp, because we can leave or enter the neighborhood only through one entrance where soldiers and local Awakening Council members search the cars and everything that get in or out the district,” said Abbas.

The news that all get back in the USA, is from a perspective of that all is well and good in a war zone.  The media is selling the Ameriucan people a line of crap…and they are buying it!

And When Does The Promised Draw-Down Begin?

The Pentagon is preparing to order roughly 30,000 troops to Iraq early next year in a move that would allow the U.S. to maintain 15 combat brigades in the country through 2009, The Associated Press has learned.

Petraeus told Congress in May that he is likely to recommend further troop reductions in Iraq, but he did not provide any details. If he decides in the fall that fewer brigades will be needed in Iraq during the next year, there is the chance that brigades could simply be directed to the war in Afghanistan instead.

Overall, there are about 146,000 forces in Iraq, and that number is expected to dip to about 142,000 by mid-July when that last unit is all out. That total is at least 7,000 more than the number of troops in Iraq before the buildup began early last year.

Now where is the promised draw down?  Oh yeah, and then there would be a re-evaluation of the situation before more troops were drawn down.  Wait!  Wait!  If you smell crap–SAY IT!

Is The “Surge” Really Working?

Not according to these indicators:

**        The Iraqi government’s military offensive in Basra was designed to undermine Prime Minister al-Maliki’s major Shi’a political rival, Moktada al Sadr, but the offensive appears to have failed, and instead is strengthening Sadr’s forces and significantly weakening Bush administration strategy in Iraq.

**        The inability of Iraqi government forces to defeat or even halt Sadr’s militia in Basra, Baghdad or elsewhere even with massive U.S. military support, and the resulting escalation of overall violence in Iraq, also proves the failure of the so-called “surge.”

**        This power struggle between Maliki and Sadr is important because it represents Iraq’s linchpin fight between supporters and opponents of the U.S. occupation and the government kept in place by the occupation; it is particularly important in Basra because almost all of Iraq’s oil these days is exported through Basra.

**        The current fighting escalates the danger of a U.S. attack on Iran, because the undeniable failure of the “surge” strategy makes it much harder for the Bush administration to continue claiming “victory” in Iraq.

McCain keeps saying that he will not “surrender” Iraq.  What does that really mean?  Not a damn thing…it is just a pander to Americans who hate to lose…..he is a politician!