Tag: Tajikistan

Once Upon A Time In Tajikistan

Back in my foreign service days I was posted in Tajikistan and thanks to those days I still have friends in the country.  One of those friends sent me word about an incident in the country…..

Jay Austin and Lauren Geoghegan shook the dust of Washington, DC, off their feet—and the jobs that had kept them there—a year ago in order to bike around the world. The 29-year-olds’ journey met a tragic end in Tajikistan on Sunday, with the Islamic State claiming credit for the bloody attack that took their lives. NPR reports the couple was biking in a group of seven south of the capital, Dushanbe, when a car drove into them. Attackers then descended on the group with knives, killing Austin, Geoghegan, a cyclist from the Netherlands, and another from Switzerland. The AP reports Tajik authorities made no mention of the ISIS angle but instead blamed the murders on the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, a local group that was banned over an alleged coup plot.

The Washington Post reports that if ISIS is found to have played a role, it would be their “first deadly attack in former Soviet Central Asia.” The Post and NPR profile Austin—who had a master’s from Georgetown, worked with the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and had built a 143-square-foot tiny home in DC—and Geoghegan, also a Georgetown grad who studied Spanish and Arabic and worked in the university’s admissions office. They left those lives behind and charted their adventures on their Simply Cycling blog, which tracked their journey throughout Africa, Europe, and central Asia. “Life is short and the world is big and we want to make the most out of our youth and good health before they’re gone,” they wrote. NPR has many more excerpts from their blog, including details of Austin’s final cliffhanger.

Tajik authorities have pointed additional fingers toward Iran…..

the Tajik Interior Ministry on July 31 accused the banned Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) of being behind an attack. The group denied the allegation as “baseless and irrational.”

The ministry also said that the attackers were led by an “active member” of the IRPT who “underwent training in Iran.”

The authorities offered no immediate proof of the claims.

(Radio Liberty)

The Iranian government has summoned the Tajik ambassador to Tehran to protest allegations linking Iran to an attack that killed four foreign cyclists in Tajikistan.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it summoned Ambassador Nematullo Emomzoda on August 1 to convey Iran’s “strong” protest over “false and unfounded” claims made by the Tajik government.

Why would the Tajik authorities want to implicate Iran?

The US Ambassador to Tajikistan, Ken Gross, announced on June 25 that the US plans to open a military training center in Tajikistan pending the signing of related agreements with the Tajik side.

The planned military center falls within the Pentagon’s $50 million security program for the Central Asian region as the US prepares to start its withdrawal from Afghanistan. The program seeks to bolster regional security by upgrading and building new security check-points, and training military personnel to combat drug-trafficking and terrorism (US Central Command press release, June 29; www.vesti.kz, June 28).

There you go……with our hostilities ramping up with Iran it is always good to have friends to help out, right?

On The Road To Central Asia

I was curious over the weekend and looked up the visits of all time in my WP stats….well it seems that I have 4 countries that have not visited IST…….Central African Republic, Chad, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.

A few years ago I did a report for a local businessman on Central Asia for he was thinking of doing business in the region.  Since that report I keep an eye on Central Asia in case my businessman needs an update to the report I prepared for him.

In a recent report in the International Crisis Group Tajikistan was the subject of said report……

The Tajik government’s control of its eastern territory, Gorno-Badakhshan, is tenuous at best. Irregulars loyal to local powerbrokers known as the Authorities have clashed with government forces in the past and may do so again if challenged. China has a growing security presence in the region.

Gorno-Badakhshan sits at the nexus of security problems including Uighur unrest in China’s Xinjiang region; Afghanistan’s war and opium trafficking; and jihadists’ potential return from Iraq and Syria to China, Central Asia or Russia. A rocky transition when President Emomali Rahmon steps down could provoke further instability in the region.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/central-asia/tajikistan/b87-rivals-authority-tajikistans-gorno-badakhshan

On another report by ICG the idea of weaponization of water was covered…….this could boil over into a war and keep in mind that Afghanistan is close by and will be effected by any water programs and if Afghanistan is effected then the US troops will be pulled into the conflict.

On 15-16 March there is a landmark opportunity to promote peace and prosperity in Central Asia when the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan meet in the Kazakh capital of Astana. It will be the four leaders’ first summit in nearly a decade. A top agenda item will likely be the precious water resources the countries must share in this vast region.

Water has been at the heart of recurrent disputes among the four states since the demise of the Soviet Union. At root, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are short on water, and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan short on electricity. The tension has been sharpest in the densely populated Ferghana Valley, where Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan converge. The latter two states accused their larger Uzbek neighbour of guzzling river water to irrigate vast cotton fields; Uzbekistan, for its part, bitterly fought Kyrgyz and Tajik plans to build dams upstream. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan also argued over the hydropower projects, which Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan needed to keep the lights on. At various times, shared resources have been used as a political tool – Uzbekistan by switching off power grids, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan by threatening to block the downstream flow of water.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/central-asia/kazakhstan/end-weaponisation-water-central-asia

I m always on the lookout for a situation that could become more than an irritant…..GOD knows the US does NOT need another armed conflict to fight or pay for……

Tajikistan–Revisited

I recently undertook a project of writing a series of op-eds for another website, Legationes, on the countries of Central Asia….I began with the nation of Tajikistan……

Source: Inside Tajikistan | Legationes

Tajikistan still has an authoritarian leader and he is having a hard time trying to prevent the rise of fundamentalists which could threaten his power base…..in a report by the Crisis Group an analysis of the country’s problems…..

Given its problems, Tajikistan should be a conflict-prevention priority for the international community. While pragmatic engagement should focus on preventing further repression and encouraging an orderly transition when Rahmon’s term ends in 2020, the risks in sustaining a frightened autocrat with no interest in a credible political process must be factored in. Under the weight of economic crisis and political stagnation, the state may continue weakening, perhaps with little impact beyond its borders, but its internal and external fragility might also lead to instability that would resonate in the broader region. The border weaknesses increase Tajikistan’s potential as a staging post for Islamic militants with ambitions elsewhere in Central Asia. The Uzbek border is relatively strong but that with Kyrgyzstan is much weaker.

Plagued by violence, corruption and economic hardship, and exposed to a long, insecure border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan is under dangerous stress. President Rahmon’s autocratic undermining of the 1997 peace agreement is fostering Islamic radicalisation. As Tajikistan’s growing fragility impacts a brittle region, the country must become a conflict-prevention priority.

Source: Tajikistan Early Warning: Internal Pressures, External Threats – International Crisis Group

A nearly two-decade-old peace agreement that ended Tajikistan’s civil war is quickly unravelling and threatening to plunge Central Asia’s poorest country back into violence, a new report warns.

A ban by the government of hard-line President Emomali Rahmon on the opposition Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) – widely considered moderate – has caused growing concern both within and outside the country.

In an attempt stem off the rise of fundamentalism the Tajik leader, Rahmon,  is taking to some extreme measures……

Police in Tajikistan have shaved nearly 13,000 people’s beards and closed more than 160 shops selling traditional Muslim clothing last year as part of the country’s fight against what it calls “foreign” influences.

Bahrom Sharifzoda, the head of the south-west Khathlon region’s police, said at a press conference on Wednesday that the law enforcement services convinced more than 1,700 women and girls to stop wearing headscarves in the Muslim-majority Central Asian country.

The move is seen as part of efforts to battle what authorities deem “radicalism”

(Al Jazeera)

Tajikistan’s secular leadership has long sought to prevent an overspill of what it sees as unwelcome traditions from neighboring Afghanistan.  The country’s parliament voted to ban Arabic-sounding “foreign” names.

The legislation is expected to be approved by President Emomali Rahmon, who has taken steps to promote secularism and discourage beliefs and practices that he sees as foreign or a threat to the stability of Tajikistan, Radio Liberty said.

If “radicalism” is to be controlled and/or stamped out then authoritarianism could be the only answer…….this is probably unacceptable to the world…..but it may be the only answer short of a massively destructive prolonged conflict……

ISIS: Is Training The Best Idea?

It seems that the US has one go to policy in foreign relations…..train the opposition so we do not have to fight.  The use of US troops in international conflicts is hitting an all time low…..the American people are running on empty for the use of US force.

Now with the conflict with ISIS the answer is to train the moderate rebels or the standing army to face and defeat the onslaught from the extremists.  I have questioned the reliability of this technique…….for one we have horrible at determining who the “good” guys are…….and two is it always the best idea……….I mean we train these moderates in our techniques and our methods and turn them loose to fight our battles…….but what if these trained moderates decide to join the “bad” guys?

That question will have to be answered soon enough…….

The U.S.-trained commander of Tajikistan’s elite police force has defected to Islamic State, he said in a YouTube video, and his former unit will issue a statement condemning him, media said on Thursday.

Colonel Gulmurod Khalimov commanded the Central Asian nation’s special-purpose police known as OMON, used against criminals and militants. He disappeared in late April, prompting a search by Tajik police.

He reappeared Wednesday, vowing to bring jihad to Russia and the Unites States as he brandished a cartridge belt and sniper rifle, in a professionally made, 10-minute video clip posted in social networks.

“Listen, you dogs, the president and ministers, if only you knew how many boys, our brothers are here, waiting and yearning to return to Tajikistan to re-establish sharia law there,” he said, addressing Tajik President Imomali Rakhmon.

Now a high ranking official with special access and knowledge has now joined the opposition…….will we change tactics or will we stay the course?  The opposition can now be trained to use our battle plan against us and our friends……good plan!

Now I ask again…..is training truly the best idea?