Tag: Peace Talks

6 Of One And A Half Dozen Of The Other

Every American knows how barbaric ISIS can be and that AQ was the bastards that lead to the 9/11 attack and the horrific actions since that fateful day…..

Our troops are fighting both organizations at the same time……all across the world ISIS and AQ affiliates are attacking and killing…..

But “what if” the two terror groups started working together and coordinate their attacks?

The leader of so-called ‘Islamic State’ (IS) has spoken to al Qaeda about a ‘possible alliance,’ according to Iraqi Vice President Ayad Allawi. The talks come as Iraqi troops close in on IS fighters in the city of Mosul.

Allawi told the Reuters news agency in an interview on Monday that he had the information from Iraqi and regional contacts knowledgeable about Iraq that “the discussion has started now.”

“There are discussions and dialogue between messengers representing [IS leader Abu Bakr] Baghdadi and representing [the head of al Qaeda, Ayman] al Zawahiri,” he said.

It is unclear how the two groups would work together, Allawi said.

Source: ′IS′ in talks with al Qaeda on ′possible alliance′ – report | News | DW.COM | 18.04.2017

Right now the talks are for Iraq and Syria….but if that is a success would that lead to a worldwide affiliation?

This is something that our counter-terrorism boys and girls should keep a close eye on this situation for this could lead to a much more dangerous world…..of course it could be just a ploy to make sure that the resources and cash keep flowing for years to come.

Any thoughts?

Syria: Will Peace Prevail?

The situation in Syria has been a smudge on the fabric of humanity for years now.  The Syrian Army with the help of Iran and Russia has been making headway against those in opposition to the Assad regime….while the war on ISIS has had its ups and downs but for the most part it is going well but not good….

There have been NO bright spots for the most part….the refugees are suffering…..civilians are dying….and bombs continue to fall….but recently a small flicker of hope came out of Syria…..that flicker is a peace process to end this thing….and how many know there is a peace talk going on?

Anyway…….

The Syrian peace talks arranged by Russia, Turkey and Iran that opened today in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, show that President Bashar al-Assad is winning the six-year-old war, but his final victory may be a long way off. Several participants in the conference have good reasons to fight on and Isis has recently made important advances.

Representatives of some of the rebel armed groups sat on one side of a round table, while the Syrian government delegation sat on the other, but the rebels said there would be no face to face talks. The most positive likely outcome of the meeting would be a reinforcement of the shaky ceasefire that began on 29 December and has been only partly effective. The US is not taking part in the talks, in contrast to previous abortive negotiations, but has sent its ambassador to Kazakhstan indicating that it does not oppose them.

Source: Syria peace talks begin in Kazakhstan with Russia taking centre stage – The Unz Review

If you get your news from American media then you know very little of this attempt…..why/  For one the US is not part of this process……we have an observer for what that is worth…..

My friends at the International Crisis Group (ICG) has issued a report on what is at stake with these negotiations……

Here in Astana, the spotlight is on the talks between the Syrian government and members of the armed opposition, but this is largely theatrics. Indeed, among the diplomats, journalists and analysts waiting in the hotel lobby and pub, there is a growing sense that we are also part of the show. The more substantive event involves trilateral discussions among Russia, Turkey and Iran, yet little has been revealed about their content.

The very fact that Russia, Turkey, and Iran are driving the talks – with limited participation from the U.S. as an observer, and none at all from Saudi Arabia – reflects the extent to which the centre of gravity in the Syrian war has shifted. This is the result of military progress by the regime and its backers, declining U.S. influence (for the moment at least) in the conflict’s central power struggle, and Riyadh’s stepping back from a role in Syria (due to its Yemeni quagmire and the weakening of its preferred rebel partners).

Source: What’s at Stake in the Syrian Peace Talks in Astana? | Crisis Group

This is a monumental attempt that could have long lasting effects…it will be a difficult and delicate process but if sides are willing then peace is possible….as it is today….the US would have very little to do with peace…….that is sad.

What Just Happened in Colombia?

Recently I posted on the Colombian peace deal between the government and the FARC rebels after about 50 years of violence and conflict….but the big story was that the people of Colombia rejected the deal through their vote.

After the news broke the world started asking………. WTF?

This journal is the best of Neocon PR…..keep that in mind while trying to discern what went wrong with the peace deal.

Surprising everyone, Colombians rejected the FARC peace deal because it ultimately rewarded the rebels for years of violence. So now it’s back to the negotiating table to get it right this time.

By a razor-thin margin of less than half a percentage point, Colombian voters narrowly rejected a proposed peace plan that would have formally ended the longest-running war in the Western Hemisphere.

Almost everyone thought the referendum would pass, that it was a mere formality after years of painstaking negotiations in Cuba, but no.

The UK’s Independent calls the vote “Farcxit.” Indeed, the peso crashed hard against the dollar for the same reason the British pound fell after Brexit—international markets hate uncertainty, especially where war and peace are concerned.

Source: What Just Happened in Colombia? | World Affairs Journal

Back to the negotiating table……but first…..there are always 2 ways of looking at any situation…..

The day of 2 October will probably be remembered as the most unexpected plot-twist of Colombia’s history. In a referendum, Colombians voted to against the peace treaty between the government and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

Against all expectations, the NO side won by less than 54,000 votes and obtained a surprising 50.2 per cent majority, rejecting a deal that would have put an end to more than 52 years of internal conflict.

The outcome of the referendum has had three clear consequences. First, the agreements between President Santos and FARC Supreme Commander Rodrigo Londoño, also known as Timochenko, signed in Cartagena on 26 September, are now virtually suspended, and the peace deal is caught in a legal limbo.

Source: Colombia’s two faces — New Internationalist

Colombia needs to be watched….there is more going on than the referendum…..will the ugly face of violence remain?

US Foreign Policy–Yet Another Hiccup (Or Two)

The US has been making some terrible foreign policy decisions in the last couple of years…..Libya, Syria and the rush to demonize Russia….just to mention a few.

Syria is a f*cked up mess…there is NO telling who are the “Good guys” and who are the “bad”…..but there was a bit of a chance recently when the US and Russia and a few of the combatants attempted a ceasefire…..that lasted about a week before the US gunned down some of the participants and Russia attacks a aid convoy and a hospital (of course no one is giving the straight story all they can do is blame the other)…..

Syria: The US, meanwhile, suspended contacts with Moscow in regard to Syria. The decision means the US will no longer negotiate with Russia over the resumption of a ceasefire or move ahead with plans for joint military operations, reports the Washington Post. The White House has been exasperated over the continued bombing of Aleppo and of humanitarian shipments. “Unfortunately, Russia failed to live up to its own commitments,” says a spokesman, “and was also either unwilling or unable to ensure Syrian regime adherence to the arrangements to which Moscow agreed.”

The US and Russia after trying to make a go a diplomacy has ended…….

Plutonium: Vladimir Putin suspended a pact with the US in which the two nations agreed to dispose of surplus plutonium that could otherwise go into weapons. The ramifications of this specific pact are limited, explains Reuters, but it carries “powerful symbolism” and could signal trouble ahead for more sweeping nuclear arms agreements. Moscow said the US “has done everything in its power to destroy the atmosphere of trust which could have encouraged cooperation,” citing among other things sanctions placed on Russia over its role in Ukraine.

Oh goody…..the world has gotten a little less predictable…..and with all the nuke talk around this election….the voter should be worried and be concerned for the future.

Appears as MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) will rear its ugly face yet again…..ignore foreign policy at your own peril…..me?  I’m looking for a more peaceful world where the money is spent where it is needed.

Syria: A Ray Of Hope

There is news and then there is NEWS…..over the weekend there was some major news only it has been shuffled to the background thanx to the antics of the political process and the political games….

Syria has been a mess for years….everyone fighting everyone else to the point that it is more confusing than a plot on Reality TV……but through all this death and destruction a small ray of hope has broken through……

Russia and the US announced plans for a ceasefire in the five-year Syrian civil war Friday, CNN reports. Under the agreement—which both the Syrian government and opposition groups have tentatively agreed to—calls for an end to hostilities starting at sundown on Monday. Secretary of State John Kerry says the “bedrock of the agreement” is the government’s cessation of air force missions in any areas occupied by rebel groups. “That should put an end to…the indiscriminate bombing of civilian neighborhoods,” Kerry says. According to the AP, Kerry calls the ceasefire a possible “turning point” in the war that has killed more than 500,000 people.

The announcement came after “intensive” talks in Geneva, the BBC reports. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave journalists waiting for the end of 13 hours of negotiations pizza “from the US delegation” and vodka “from the Russian delegation.” The ceasefire will allow the UN to deliver humanitarian aid to hard-hit areas, including Aleppo, where nearly 700 civilians—160 of them children—have been killed in the past 40 days. If the ceasefire lasts a week, the US and Russia will start planning joint military operations against al Qaeda and ISIS fighters in Syria. But such ceasefire agreements have failed in the past. “We think [the arrangement] has the capability of sticking, but it’s dependent on people’s choices,” Kerry says. “It is an opportunity and not more than that.”

Beginning sundown today……A nationwide cease-fire by Assad’s forces and the U.S.-backed opposition is set to begin across Syria at sundown Monday. That sets off a seven-day period that will allow for humanitarian aid and civilian traffic into Aleppo, Syria’s largest city and commercial capital, which has faced a recent onslaught.

Fighting forces are to also pull back from the Castello Road, a key thoroughfare and access route into Aleppo, and create a “demilitarized zone” around it.

Also Monday, the United States and Russia will begin preparations for the creation of a Joint Implementation Center that will involve information sharing needed to define areas controlled by the radical Nusra Front and opposition groups in areas “of active hostilities.”

The center is expected to be established a week later, and is to launch a broader effort toward delineating other territories in control of various groups.

As part of the arrangement, Russia is expected to keep Syrian air force planes from bombing areas controlled by the opposition. The United States has committed to help weaken the Nusra Front, an extremist group that has intermingled with the U.S.-backed opposition in places.

A resumption of political dialogue between the government and opposition under U.N. mediation, which was halted amid an upsurge in fighting in April, will be sought over the longer term.

Now the part that should the blogs in multiple directions is the fact that US and Russia are working in partnership (for now)……..

The United States and Russia working in lockstep against ISIS and al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria. A rejuvenated truce that will compel President Bashar Assad’s air and ground forces to pull back. New flows of badly needed humanitarian aid. Those details emerged Saturday as US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov capped another marathon meeting in Geneva to present their latest ambitious push to end Syria’s devastating and complex war, the AP reports. The potential breakthrough deal, which promises a new US-Russian counterterrorism alliance, launches a nationwide cessation of hostilities by sundown Monday.

The military deal would go into effect after both sides abide by the truce for a week and allow unimpeded humanitarian deliveries. Then, the US and Russia would begin intelligence sharing and targeting coordination, while Assad’s air and ground forces would no longer be permitted to target Fath al-Sham, formerly known as the Nusra Front; they would be restricted to operations against ISIS while the US and Russia target both groups. The deal will hinge on compliance by Assad’s Russian-backed forces and US-supported rebel groups, plus key regional powers such as Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia—though as with previous blueprints for peace, Saturday’s plan appears to lack enforcement mechanisms.

What could possibly go wrong (he asked smilingly)……

What are the chances of success with this effort?  Now there is a good question.

In order to evaluate the value of the Kerry-Lavrov effort, we only have the patterns of previously exerted efforts, conducted separately or in a minimum de-confliction mode, to assess the extent of the individual impact of each power, then proceed to explore the potential impact of both combined.

In the case of Russia, its recent intensive air raids around Aleppo and Hama have not achieved their purpose on either front. The armed opposition, including Jabhat al-Nusra, has made very impressive progress on both battle fields.

In the case of the US, the state of play in northern Syria shows a very limited ability to influence the dynamics of the on-the-ground-course of the fight: Turkey’s incursion – the defection of hundreds of Arab Syrian fighters from the US-backed, predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to join the Turkish-assisted opposition west of the Euphrates – previous failed US attempts to train Syrian forces in order to set them up against terrorist forces – these are but a few examples of a long list of trials and failures for US involvement in Syria.

Therefore, it is safe to say that Russia’s heavy bombardment plus Assad’s and Iran’s repeated offensives on multiple fronts have not reversed the dynamics on the ground in any substantial way. The US has not fared any better. Neither have its attempts to train forces, play the SDF off pro-Turkish forces, and other shallow and similar tactics changed the dynamics.

Considering such a dismal record for the two powers on the ground, independently, it is only natural to review whether together they can achieve any degree of success in fighting terrorism jointly. In other words, we must return to examining the link between the two powers, either working together or alone, on the one hand, and the course of the actual conflict on the ground as it progresses.

(MEBriefing.com)

Time will tell if this will be a successful endeavor……my guess is there are too many players with too many goals for it to be successful…..and I hope I am mistaken.

But am I?

One group has already rejected the truce……

An influential Syrian rebel group, the hardline Islamist Ahrar al-Sham, on Sunday rejected the truce deal brokered by Russia and the United States hours before it was due to begin.

A high-ranking member of the group, which works closely with former Al-Qaeda affiliate Fateh al-Sham Front, said in a statement on YouTube that the deal would only serve to “reinforce” the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and “increase the suffering” of civilians

Not a good start, huh?

Yemen: Some Things Never Change

For a year now the Saudis have been bombing Yemen relentlessly….and finally a bit of sanity raised is shy head and the warring factions decided to try and work of their differences with peace talks….I applauded the effort since the only suffering from this endless air attacks are the civilians…..mostly children…but after a month or so of talks not much could be agreed upon and…….

Presumably, the search for a solution to end the Yemen war has ended with the balanced proposal put forward by the United Nations Special Envoy to the Yemeni crisis. But alas, while Yemen’s legitimate government of President Abd Rabo Mansour Hadi accepted the proposal, the Houthi rebels and former President Ali Abdullah Saleh immediately rejected it.

The proposal stated that the rebels have to pull out of Sanaa, the capital, and engage in talks for 45 days after their withdrawal. Furthermore, the plan requires the rebels to hand over their heavy weaponry.

Just prior to the announcement of the peace proposal, the Houthi-Saleh front held a press conference during which they inaugurated their joint Presidential Council to govern the country. The assumption that the UN proposal came as a reaction to the Presidential Council is not accurate. The opposite is correct, as in fact a draft of the UN proposal, put forward by UN Envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, had already been sent to the two sides as earlier in the talks hosted by Kuwait.

Source: Yemen: Peace Talks Reach Dead End | Middle East Briefing

Sadly it is official….the talks have failed and what was the response of the Saudis?

The United Nations has announced a month-long halt to the Kuwait-based peace talks for Yemen, saying that both sides have committed to return to the talks in a month’s time, but leaving open the question of why they are taking an entire month off, when the talks haven’t achieved anything yet.

Pro-Saudi forces are conducting a major new offensive this weekend, though whether the offensive was launched after the talks were paused or just before is unclear. The UN issued a statement criticizing the Houthis for seating a new leadership council, but did not mention the new offensive.

If they are going to return in a month for more talks why would the Saudis attack immediately after the announcement of the suspended talks?

Is it peace they seek or an advantage in the conflict?

Spring! And Thoughts Of Peace?

Recently there has been a movement to find an actual plan to try and end most of the violence and destruction in Syria……that attempt is moving along well….not a solution but at least the players, most of the players are still talking….

The two sides….Assad and the opposition have given their demands and 12 ponts have been agreed to in principle……

12 general points that were taken mainly from the two sides documents. The points include the following principles:

  1.  Reforming state institutions in accordance with international standards.
  2. Rejecting terrorism categorically whatever the source was.
  3. Re-building the Syrian army in accordance with national rules.
  4. Securing the proper conditions for the return of Syrian refugees and the displaced ones to their homes.
  5. Providing care and justice for all Syrians afflicted by war.
  6. Preserving Syria’s full sovereignty on all Syrian territory.
  7. Rejecting  any outside interference Syrian internal affairs.
  8.  Establishing a non-sectarian democratic ruling system in Syria.
  9.  Preserving the rights of women in the equitable representation according to international standards (30%).
  10. Implementing UN Security Council resolutions, particularly 2254 to ensure the power of political transition.
  11.   Creating a stable environment during the transition period to ensure equal opportunities.
  12. Commitment to national reconciliation and rejection of any revengeful acts by any side.

Now granted there is little chance that all 12 points will be finalized but if even 6 of them are then that would be a major step…..

Now let’s move to Yemen…….A Saudi-led coalition began a military campaign in Yemen a year ago with the aim of preventing Iran-allied Houthi rebels and forces loyal to Yemen’s ex-President Ali Abdullah Saleh from taking control of the country.

Last week there was an announcement that a ceasefire had been agreed upon……

The warring parties in Yemen have agreed to a cessation of hostilities starting at midnight on April 10 and peace talks in Kuwait beginning a week later, United Nations special envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed said on Wednesday.

Ould Cheikh Ahmed said prominent Yemeni figures would be enlisted to cooperate with a de-escalation and coordination committee on the cessation of hostilities and “to report on progress and security incidents.”

He said the peace talks would focus on five areas: a withdrawal of militia and armed groups; a handover of heavy weaponry to the state; interim security arrangements; restoration of state institutions; and resumption of inclusive political dialogue.

Personally, I am glad to see that some form of sanity may have returned…..but there is one thing…….there is NOT much left standing in Yemen so to keep fighting would be a waste of ordinance.

Spring and time for a re-birth of all things……

Syria: What Price Peace?

Since I wrote this op-ed for my friends at Ace News Room….the Russians have begun pulling their air assets out of Syria–(my post is below)

Breaking News! Yes I know we all are well aware that there are Russians in Syria…..at least if you have been playing attention….that is for the last 6 months….but that is not what…

Source: Russians In Syria…..WTF? – In Saner Thought

The problem, while good news,  few know why.  Was their mission accomplished?  Could this be yet another Putin ploy?  Lots of speculation but no empirical evidence for why he chose to cut and run.

My op-ed is about the possibility of peace for Syria and the plans if the peace process fails…there is always a Plan “B”.

A new year and a wealth of silly antics by politicos…..the world is going into the crapper and we are told about the mindless ramblings of presidential wannabes…..believe me when I say …

Source: Syria: What Price Peace?

Is There Any Hope For Syria?

Most Americans have seen the devastation in the country of Syria….if not then I am sure they have seen the massive amounts of refugees that are fleeing the country looking for some place safe to live and raise their families (that is what is left of their families)…….

There seems to be NO hope of a peace settlement for the conflict now destroying the country.  Too many countries trying to impose their will on Syria….Assad, US, Turkey, Russia, the UK and others ……… even Iraq to a small part….

One of my favorite writers, Robert Parry, has written an excellent piece about the chance of a way to save the country of Syria……

Source: A Glimmer of Hope for Syria | Consortiumnews

The Save-Syria Initiative Debated Among Opposition Groups | Middle East Briefing

The situation in Syria has done many things……lots of bitching and moaning…..the one thing that has not come out of Syria is a solution to the events taking place in the region……

Action is long in the tooth…..solutions are in short supply….

The situation in Syria is fluid….but according to the Institute for the Study of War…it is a confusing mess……

Source: Forecasting the Syrian Civil War | Institute for the Study of War

I would expect a think tank that is dedicated to war to have little use for a possible peace plan……but there needs to be at least one on the books…..

Finally someone has offered a solution….it will not be met with much success….however it is a starting spot and I believe it should be considered as a starting point and work out from there…….

]The US will not sign on….but at least the UN should take a long look at the proposal….and work from there….but please keep it out of the Security Council, where solutions go to die…thanx to the US……

Source: The Save-Syria Initiative Debated Among Opposition Groups | Middle East Briefing

Keep in  mind that all wars end with a peace treaty….after lengthy talks and compromise…….

All I am saying is….Give Peace a Chance!