Tag: Kurds

Kurds–What’s New?

ISIS is fighting for its very existence in Iraq…..and while all that was happening the Kurds decided to push the buttons of Baghdad and vote for independence.

After the vote Iraqi government went batcrap crazy!  The Kurds overplayed the hand just a bit….

The Iraqi Kurds have just announced that they’re freezing the results of their independence referendum, which is bureaucratese for saying that they don’t intend to act on it. Which, in turn, is another way of offering a ceasefire to the government troops that have displaced them from Kirkuk and environs. The Kurds gambled and lost. It seems they’d hoped that their western allies would come to their aid, but none did. This, despite loud protestations by sympathetic commentators in the West that the Kurds’ loss was a victory for Iranian hegemony over Iraq—in particular, a victory for Iran’s IRGC commander in the region, Qasim Suleimani. And even though the State Department denied any Iranian participation, it’s unlikely that without Tehran’s concrete intervention the Iraqis had the capability to overcome the Peshmerga so swiftly. As an example, this report entitled “How Iran helped Baghdad seize back Kirkuk” that ran in the Middle Eastern news website Al-Monitor portrays Tehran as the main driver of Baghdad’s success, along with other factors such as Kurds’ disunity and their shortages of ammunition. Others suggested that the Iraqi army (illegally) used their US-supplied Abrams tanks in the demarche which, if true, would have compelled the US to punish Baghdad in some way, perhaps even to defend the Kurds actively. Washington chose to look the other way.

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/melik-kaylan/overplaying-their-hand-kurds%E2%80%99-referendum-debacle

The Kurds are now playing with a level head…..sort of…..

America’s Ambassador to Iraq is attempting to restart negotiations between Iraq’s Kurds and the Iraqi Government. The U.S. is hoping the resignation of Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) leader Masoud Barzani on November 1, 2017 will incentivize the Iraqi Government to accept a compromise with Iraq’s Kurds. Masoud Barzani was the driving force behind the Kurdish independence referendum on September 25th, which provoked the ongoing retaliation by the Iraqi Government and Iran. The US state department is attempting to unite Iraq’s Kurds behind the region’s Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani and his deputy Qubad Talabani in order to resolve the dispute with Baghdad ahead of the 2018 elections. U.S ambassador to Iraq Douglas Silliman met with them in Arbil on November 2nd. He relayed the US position that the long term stability of Iraqi Kurdistan depends on a unified and federal Iraq, and that the two sides must find a “peaceful resolution of disputes under the Iraqi constitution.”

http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2017/11/further-military-escalation-likely-in.html

In the 1990’s the US sold out the Kurds and looks like we are doing it again……

I stood at a border crossing as thousands of Yazidis and other refugees fled ISIS attacks on Mosul and nearby cities. Tens of thousands of refugees flooded into the Kurdish Region of Iraq as Kurdish relief workers greeted them with water and food.

It was August 2014, and I was there on assignment as a freelance correspondent. The Obama administration had started bombing northern Iraq just a few days earlier. The explanation given at the time, now long forgotten, was the US would bomb for a limited time to protect the Kurdish capital of Erbil and stop the attacks on Yazidis.

http://original.antiwar.com/Reese_Erlich/2017/11/06/us-sells-kurds/

Kurds will conform to the law of the land and not secede….for now……

Iraq’s Kurds voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum in September, defying the central government in Baghdad – which had ruled the ballot illegal – as well as neighbouring Turkey and Iran which have their own Kurdish minorities.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) said on Tuesday it would respect the November 6 ruling by the Supreme Federal Court, which declared that no Iraqi province could secede.

“We believe that this decision must become a basis for starting an inclusive national dialogue between (Kurdish authorities in) Erbil and Baghdad to resolve all disputes,” the KRG said in a statement.

http://www.france24.com/en/20171114-iraq-kurdistan-respect-court-decision-banning-secession-baghdad

Kurds will play ball for now….but how long will this nicety last?

They will live with a unified Iraq….really?

Apparently putting an end to the independence push which began with September’s referendum, Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has issued a statement today promising to respect a Supreme Court ruling that precludes independence, and emphasizes the “united Iraq.”

The Iraqi courts insisted that there is no constitutional method through which any part of Iraq could ever secede. Iraqi Kurdistan was in the process of such a secession before October offensives by the Iraqi military quickly got them to back off the plan.

This new statement appears to be an attempt to placate Iraq’s central government, which has been talking further punishment for the Kurdish regions, and has suggested the military operation could be restarted at any time.

Independence has been a long-standing goal for Kurds in Iraq and elsewhere in the region, but so far none had come as close as the KRG to effecting a formal declaration. At this point, it looks less likely than ever they’ll manage to achieve independence, or even retain previous autonomy.

(antiwar.com)

Then what the Hell was the independence referendum vote all about if they had NO inclination of session?  What game are the Kurds playing?

The Votes Are In!

The Votes Are In!

Yesterday the residents of Northeast Iraq, Kurd region, went to the polls to vote for session from the country of Iraq…….and now the final results are in…..well not final for at least 72 hours……

Polls have closed in Iraqi Kurdistan, and while there are a lot of questions about what’s going to happen next, one thing that’s not in serious doubt is the results. With some 78% of voters having gone to referendum, the final figures are still expected with 72 hours.

Early counts show what everyone suspected though, that it’s not going to be close. The first 300,000 votes, admittedly less than 10% of the count, showed 93.4% voting yes. A wide majority was always expected.

Iraqi Kurdistan has long sought independence, as has the rest of Kurdistan, which spans Syria, Turkey, and Iran. The part in Iraq, however, was very clear about having a vote as soon as the ISIS war was over, and they’ve been basically on their way out the door since.

The referendum was just an up and down vote on secession in general, but questions about the specific boundaries, especially after Kurdistan seized substantial new territory in the ISIS war, remain to be resolved.

(antiwar.com)

They just voted for an extension of the chaos in Iraq…..this vote only implies to Iraq but their are Kurds in several other Middle East states…..Turkey, Syria, Iran……what will these set about doing?

AS an example of things to come was a few days before the vote……A few days ahead of the Kurdistan referendum on independence, an ethnic clash took place between a group of Kurds and Turkmens in Kirkuk on Sept. 19. Local police deployed in different parts of the city to prevent the development of the deadly clash.

Other minorities may want their place in the sun….so to speak…..the Assyrians, Chaldean, etc.

The Vote Slowly Creeps Forward

Today is 25 September 2017 and if all goes well the Kurds will vote on referendum to become an independent region/nation.

Here is a paper by a group that I have worked with in the past…..the International Crisis Group…..it is about the risks involved in the vote by the Kurds….

On 25 September, barring a last-minute postponement, the Iraqi Kurdistan region will hold an independence referendum. Voters will be asked whether they want “the Kurdistan region and the Kurdish areas outside the region’s administration to become an independent state”. The referendum cannot turn Kurdistan into an independent state, regardless of turnout and outcome, because the vote is merely consultative and legally non-binding. Still, the situation presents serious risks, both if the referendum is held and if the price paid to delay it is too high.

Source: How to Mitigate the Risks of Iraqi Kurdistan’s Referendum | Crisis Group

So far the Kurds are the only ones that see this as a good thing…..even the US has tried to convince the Kurds to wait and be logical….so far they are damn straight going to go for it……even if it means more problems to a region that does not need more problems…..

As the Kurdish independence referendum draws near in Iraq, a war of words is threatening to grow into violence. Some Iraqi paramilitary factions under the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) are increasing their warnings against the vote, and some Kurds are responding with talk of resorting to weapons. Iraq’s parliament voted Sept. 14 to dismiss the governor of Kirkuk province, who favors Kurdish independence, and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) responded by announcing it is ending its partnership with Baghdad.

Reuters reported that the decision to remove the governor, Najmaldin Karim, “comes after Kirkuk — an oil-rich province claimed by both the central government in Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq — decided to take part in a referendum set for Sept. 25 on Kurdish independence.”

Meanwhile, Karim is ignoring his ouster. This all could lead to a new spiral of violence even before the country rids itself of the Islamic State (IS).

No one sees this as a successful transition….

The plan to hold an independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan next week has run into a new obstacle:

Iraq’s supreme court has approved a request by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to suspend an independence referendum that the country’s Kurdistan region planned to hold later this month.

The court said Monday the vote will be on hold until it reviews cases regarding the constitutionality of the vote.

The referendum will probably still take place, and the Kurdish parliament endorsed proceeding with the vote on Friday, but the ruling confirms that Baghdad won’t view it as legitimate. The court ruling comes on the heels of warnings from the Iraqi prime minister that Baghdad is prepared to use force if the referendum results in violence. Abadi also raised the prospect that the referendum would serve as an invitation to other governments to meddle in Iraqi affairs:

Source: The Dangers of the Kurdish Referendum | The American Conservative

Only more problems for the US military to solve….and they have not been too good at that aspect here lately…..more blood and death.

There is a couple of things to keep in mind when thinking about the vote……

On Sept. 25, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is expected to hold its long-awaited referendum on independence. While it has generated much nationalist excitement among Kurds in the KRI capital of Irbil and abroad, the central government in Baghdad and the international community have objected to the vote. The United States has mobilized diplomatic capital to persuade Irbil to postpone the vote. Last week, Western diplomats offered an alternative proposal: Postpone the vote and enter into new mediated negotiations with Baghdad. But without ironclad guarantees or a specified timetable, Irbil has rejected those initiatives, continuing to prepare for the referendum.

The referendum was never meant to be a silver bullet, ending negotiations on Kurds’ path to statehood. But recent escalations by all sides have produced a self-fulfilling crisis with the prospect of military conflict, fueled by both Arab and Kurdish nationalism.

Source: 5 things to know about the referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan – The Washington Post

As a premonition of things to come I offer up the latest clash….

Iraqi Kurds and Turkmens clashed in Kirkuk on Monday night, a week before the disputed territory votes in a referendum on independence for Iraqi Kurdistan. The clashes prompted local police to deploy around the city to prevent ethnic tensions from escalating. Kirkuk’s extensive Turkmen and Arab populations largely oppose the inclusion of their city in the controversial vote scheduled for Sept. 25.

Like I keep saying….this vote could create more problems than it solves.

 

On To “Kurdexit”

Remember last year the big mash up over the “Brexit”….that referendum where the UK would leave the EU?

Well there is a similar thing happening in the Middle East…..on 25 Sept of this year the Kurds will vote on a referendum to leave the country of Iraq……

It was an eventful summer, especially in the Middle East. It all began with the Qatar kerfuffle on June 5, followed soon thereafter with a change in Saudi Arabia’s line of succession. Then came violence and protests over security measures at the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif in Jerusalem. Mosul and Tel Afar were liberated in Iraq. The American-backed Syrian Defense Forces marched on Raqqa, the self-declared Islamic State’s “capital.” Yemen descended further into a humanitarian disaster with 600,000 cases of cholera and imminent famine. Morocco exploded in protest over the death of a fishmonger last fall at the hands of police. Iran continued to consolidate its power around the Middle East. The Trump administration withheld or delayed about $300 million in military assistance to Egypt over “geopolitical and human rights concerns.” Turkey’s massive purge continued. And prosecutors in Israel edged closer to indicting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for corruption.

There was another story of potentially enormous consequences that received scant attention, however. Throughout the summer Iraqi Kurds prepared for a referendum on independence that will be held on Sept. 25. For the better part of a century, Iraq’s Kurds have been trying to undo what the League of Nations did under British pressure in 1925 when it attached the former Ottoman province of Mosul to Iraq. Their incorporation into Iraq has been an unhappy experience for the Kurds, to say the least.

Source: Is the world ready for “Kurdexit”? Referendum among Iraqi Kurds has Middle East on edge – Salon.com

There are very few people that see this referendum as a good thing for Iraq or the larger Middle East…..that is with the exception of the Israelis…..

The president of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Masoud Barzani, on Tuesdayrejected an Iraqi parliament vote authorizing Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi “to take all measures” to reject the Kurdish independence referendum and preserve Iraqi unity. Speaking in Kirkuk following the vote, Barzani vowed that the referendum would still go ahead on September 25. Abadi has threatened that Kurds will lose all their political gains if they proceed with the vote and instead urged them to come to Baghdad for a dialogue. While the referendum has little international support, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin NetanyahureaffirmedTuesday that Israel “supports the Kurdish people’s legitimate attempts at self-determination.”

The predictions of the aftermath are dire…..that the violence is far from over even with the defeat of ISIS…..plus they see the Kurds expanding to all parts of the Middle East….Syria, Turkey, Iran, etc…..none will be good for the well being of the region.

The Vote That Could Change Everything

It is September and the battle for Mosul and against ISIS is slowly winding down…but a new wrinkle is about to pop up that could start Iraq down a whole new path of conflict.

September 25, the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil will hold a binding referendum on whether or not to secede from Iraq. It will almost certainly pass. More than a decade ago, the Kurds held a non-binding referendum that passed with  99.8 percent of the vote.

No one knows what’s going to happen. Iraq is the kind of place where just about anything can happen and eventually does.

Kurdish secession could go as smoothly as a Scottish secession from the United Kingdom (were that to actually happen) or a Quebecois secession from Canada, were that to actually happen. It could unfold like Kosovo’s secession from Serbia, where some countries recognize it and others don’t while the Serbs are left to stew in their own juices more or less peaceably.

Source: The Kurds Are About to Blow Up Iraq | World Affairs Journal

If the Kurd vote to cede from Iraq they will be tearing the heart out of the nation….and the rest of Iraq will not go quietly into this good night.

Experts often question the degree to which the Kurds of Iraq and their various peshmerga groups are united politically. The Kurdistan Region is split between the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). These parties fought a civil war against one another in the mid-1990s and have since maintained separate military and security forces. Despite recent moves toward integration, separate KDP- and PUK-aligned forces continue to predominate the peshmerga. These political armies add another layer of complexity to the already Byzantine mix of territorial struggles, hydrocarbon disputes, and militia politics playing out in the Kurdistan region. Complicating things further, the KDP and PUK have since fractionalized, most dramatically with the emergence of the Gorran (change) movement in 2009, which claims to disavow the entrenched and corrupt politics of the two traditional parties.

New conflict….new problem in the Middle East…..and the US will have to be ass deep in this conflict as well….after all they have been our allies for decades.

Kurds Step Up

Note:  This post was a draft for the time before the Kurds have their independence vote….but the news is not good for them in Syria which will play in Iraq and Turkey as well…..so I jumped the gun……

Today is 01 September….not a big deal except to the Kurds.

You see this month the Kurds will be voting on an independence referendum….a vote as the first step to an independent Kurdistan in the Middle East.

For over a century the Kurds feeling betrayed by the Sykes-Picot Agreement, have longed for their own homeland…but there is more to it than that, right?

Iraqi Kurdistan’s upcoming independence referendum on Sept. 25, 2017 will determine, among other things, the borders of an emerging Kurdish state in that region. With this determination would likely come border conflicts for an independent state squeezed between several volatile flashpoints.

Presently, the borders of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region are not clear-cut. Baghdad and Erbil both lay claim to “disputed territories.” Under Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution, a referendum should conclusively resolve the status of these territories. Yet Iraq never implemented this article and has stalled on doing so for a decade.

Source: An Independent Kurdistan Would Begin With a Clash | War Is Boring

There are Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran…but the referendum is only being voted on in Iraq.

It seems to be popular in Iraq but not so much in Iran, who has a substantial Kurd population….

International bodies, regional powers and Baghdad are not alone in objecting to Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence project. Feylis, who are Shiite Kurds, are also fundamentally opposed to Kurdistan’s possible secession from Iraq.

Immediately after the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on June 7 announced its intention to hold a referendum on independence, most of the parties and forces concerned about Iraqi developments expressed their opposition, in part out of concern that it will lead to an escalation of regional crises. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi laid out the Iraqi government’s official position June 18, stating, “The Kurdistan Regional referendum on secession is illegal, and the federal government will not support it, fund it or participate in it.” The United States and Iraq’s neighbors, including Turkey, Iran and Syria, oppose the country’s territorial division.

Kurds–Wassup?

Slowly I am returning to my primary interests that being foreign policy, international relations and conflict management…..an area I have neglecting because of the stupidity of the last election…..I will correct my failings.

Kurds have been the “good guys” in the battle for hearts and minds in Iraq and Syria….they have been a valued ally to the US and NATO…..now that ISIS is on the defensive and some even say on the run what will happen after the killing and destruction is done?

The Kurds have been pushing for a homeland in the heart of the Middle East for many many years but the calls have become louder since 2003 when the US invaded then occupied Iraq.

The problem is the Syria and Turkey may have a different opinion on the future of a “Kurdistan”…..so the question being asked is….what will the Kurds do?  There are many factions and factions within factions among the Kurds….any transition will probably be anything but calm…..

Turkey’s President Recep Yayyip Erdogan had a long conversation with Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi in the first week of January, followed by sending his Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus to Baghdad. Then Ankara’s Prime Minister Binali Yildrim visited the Iraqi capital January 7, had long talks with Abadi, and reached an agreement on the security issues concerning the two countries. Among other issues, the Turkish-Iraqi talks included a discussion about Turkey’s military presence in Bashiqa and PKK presence in Sinjar (Shingal).

The PKK is in Sinjar via two affiliated groups: The People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Shingal Protection Units (SPU). Baghdad recognized the SPU as a friendly, non-terrorist group. Turkey, on the other hand, considers the PKK, the YPG, and the SPU terrorist groups.

However, Turkey is moving fast to establish an anti-PKK coalition in Iraq. This coalition includes Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Nineveh’s Turkish-trained National Mobilization Forces (NMF or Al Hashd Al Watani).

Source: Now, What Will the Kurds Do? | Middle East Briefing

Now with that said…..let’s theorize that the Kurds get their wishes, especially in Iraq, will it be a calming transition?  Probably not!

The campaign against the Islamic State (IS) in Mosul has diverted attention from simmering problems inside the Kurdistan Region of Iraq that will affect post-conflict stabilization. Within the last several months alone, there has been another assassination of a Kurdish journalist, an “honor” killing of a university student, death threats against a female Kurdish parliamentarian, bombing of an Iranian Kurdish party office that killed seven people and a string of foiled terrorist attacks in Sulaimaniyah province. These incidents have occurred alongside ongoing demonstrations by civil servants for unpaid salaries, a nonfunctioning Kurdish parliament, swelling numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons, an expanded Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and Turkish airstrikes on PKK bases in northern Iraq. They have not only reversed most gains the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has realized since 2011, but also leave the Kurdistan Region increasingly vulnerable to financial collapse and internal conflict.

Instead of “inevitable Kurdish statehood” after the defeat of IS, a more realistic scenario is weakened autonomy, political entropy and armed conflicts. The KRG launched “independent” exports in 2014, but the Kurdish economy is now in tatters. KRG debt exceeds $22 billion. The availability of electricity has decreased to 2005 levels, or about four hours a day in many areas without private generators. Tens of thousands of youths continue to migrate from the region. The once-touted Kurdish energy sector is being undermined legally and politically. Although the KRG exports about 600,000 barrels of oil per day to Ceyhan, these exports remain contentious, are dependent on Turkey and are largely sourced from Kirkuk — still a disputed territory — and not the Kurdistan Region. International oil companies have thus far abandoned 19 oil fields in the Kurdistan Region, including ExxonMobil’s withdrawal from three of its six fields.
Source: Is Iraqi Kurdistan heading toward civil war?
This scenario will NO doubt keep the US and its NATO cronies in the region for all eternity…somebody has to protect the holdings of the corporate masters in Washington.

Kurd Of A Different Color

This post has many links but if my reader would like to understand what is happening then it is well worth the time it takes to become informed……

In the past I have written much on the situation around the Kurds…..mostly those residing inside Iraq….but the Kurds in northeastern Syria are making news….

My past posts on the Kurds……

Inkwell Institute Middle East Desk   The battle for the hearts and minds of the people of Iraq and Syria has begun……the US has taken upon itself to step back into the Middle East w…

Source: Kurds: A Janus? – In Saner Thought

We are ass deep in the Middle East and it looks like it will be for a very long time……..maybe it is time for Americans, especially my readers,  to get acquainted with the people that we…

Source: People without a state: Who are the Kurds? – In Saner Thought

College of Political Knowledge Professor’s Classroom One last update for you hard core news junkies (my kind of people)….. The Kurds?  I read an article about the Kurds in Syria are try…

Source: Let’s Hear For The Kurds – In Saner Thought

Just a few of my posts on the subject of the Kurds.  I remind my readers because the Kurds in Syria are making the news these days…..the people of northeast Syria are looking for a homeland…..

Shut out of UN-brokered talks, Kurdish Democratic Union Party and its allies choose to go it alone.

Source: Syria’s Kurds claim autonomy in the north – Al Jazeera English

Recently I read a piece by Juan Cole who is just about the most knowledgeable writer in the West…..he has observations on this occurrence of Kurds claiming a separate state in Syria……

Syria’s Kurds have decided to declare a federal province in the northeast of the country and along the northern border with Turkey.

Many Arab states are unitary rather than federal and for the most part provincial governors are appointed by the central government and the central state controls local education and other policy. The Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov recently suggested that one resolution of the Syrian civil war might be to move the country to a US- or Canada-style federal state where the provinces retain substantial powers and prerogatives.

Some pundits are interpreting the Kurdish move as a form of separatism, but so far it seems more like a demand for states’ rights, Alabama-style. The Kurds are frustrated that they have been excluded from the Geneva peace talks, and are in part making the point that with 10% of the Syrian territory in their control, they are too important to snub.

Source: Syria’s Kurds to declare Federal Province

Cole’s observations are excellent insight into this situation……now I will be watching the Kurds in Iraq and in southeastern Turkey for their next move…you see there is a definite desire for a Kurdistan, a free and independent state and a homeland for all Kurds.

Distribution of Kurdish population map

 

This could be a two edged sword…..and a massive headache for the West.

What are the intentions with this move?

From the outset of the Syrian conflict, the PYD has pursued its own self-declared interests.

Source: The intentions of Syrian Kurds with self-administration – Al Jazeera English

There seems to be those that are opposed to this move……why would anyone be opposed to these people having their own region under their authority?

I am so glad you asked…….

Analysis: The latest Syrian Kurdish move toward cementing autonomy comes as no surprise – but how far will it go?

Source: Why Syria’s Kurds want federalism, and who opposes it – AJE News

Let me ask one question in closing…..all those that applaud the Kurds move for secession….would you also feel the same for Afro-Americans??

Syria: Who’s Doing Who?

I do marvel at the analyses of Syria…..why?  It is so confusing that whatever someone writes could very well be accurate…..even the most outlandish of scenarios.  I have been doing a lot of research because I know the class I will teach this question will be asked…….be prepared.  (a slogan we all know and love from our younger days)

Moving on.

By now most of the “known universe” (a Dune reference) has seen the dramatic photos of the Russian plane shot down by Turkey….and this will make things a little more messy and a lot more confusing than they are today.

There is more to the story of the downed plane than we are being told……if interested then you may read it for yourself……

Source: The Real Reason for Turkey’s Shoot-Down of the Russian Jet – Antiwar.com Original by — Antiwar.com

Actually you need a flow chart on the wall to keep up with who us fighting who….I would try to explain this situation but I found a cartoon that explains it is fewer words than I would have to use……

image

Cartoon by Pat Bagley, Salt Lake Tribune

That is as accurate as I can get without a lengthy dissertation…..(you are welcome)…….

Now let’s look at the Kurds….the Kurds are our friends and ally in the fight against ISIS in Iraq…..in Syria they are the enemy of Turkey bit still a friend to DC….and since the downing of the Russian plane things are about to get even more touchy……

I read a piece in a Russian newspaper that may or may not be accurate….but if it is true then things have taken a turn….a bad turn……

Moscow isn’t likely to bomb Turkish military facilities, but it has other ways of undermining Ankara’s presence in Syria: Russia is now aiding Kurdish rebels — a group that has been labeled as “terrorists” by Turkey.

The Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG) are considered extremely valuable in the fight against ISIS. They have previously received support from the United States, although western cooperation with the group has been limited in order to avoid ruffling Erdogan’s feathers. But for Russia, upsetting Erdogan is not really an “issue”.

Putin has called on the Assad government and the political wing of the YPG to unite. This has still not happened – at least not officially.

But Syrian Kurdish officials have said they are ready to work with anyone fighting ISIL, and anyone who works for a united, secular and democratic Syria.

This means that Russia will aid the forces of the Kurdish rebels that are fighting against Turkey……Turkey is attacking these forces…..does that not sound like a prescription for escalation?

After all there is a bit of history between Russia and the Kurds……..The Kurds’ growing role in the evolving and turbulent situation prevailing in the Middle East and elsewhere affects the policies of regional and global powers alike. Russia is no exception. In recent years, Moscow has taken steps to develop contacts with Kurdish political movements and establish economic cooperation with Iraqi Kurdistan, where Russian oil and gas companies have set up shop. The February 2013 visit to Russia by Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani, dubbed by the Kurdish people as the “first official visit,” served as a significant milestone in the development of political contacts. The visit refreshed the memories of developments dating back more than half a century when the Kurds’ historical leader (and Barzani’s father) Mullah Mustafa Barzani lived in the Soviet Union from 1947 to 1958, where he enjoyed support on a number of fronts.

As with anything in the Middle East…..what could possibly go wrong?

Iraq Descends Into Chaos

For those that have put Iraq out of their minds……

But this time it is political chaos which could lead to further violence……chaos has been the norm for Iraq since 2003 and now with the conflict against ISIS why would it be any different than in the past?

This takeaway provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)……..

The political crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan caused by delayed Presidential elections descended into outright political violence on October 8. Regional President Masoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), has continued to hold office even though his term expired on August 19 and no elections have occurred. Other Iraqi Kurdish political parties, particularly Gorran (Change), the KDP’s main political rival, tried to contest the extension of Barzani’s term and leverage concessions in return for his continuation in office. Popular protests against the government turned violent on October 9 after multi-party talks collapsed the day before. On October 11, the KDP ordered the speaker and other members of the Kurdish parliament from Gorran to leave the regional capital of Arbil, declaring that Gorran was no longer a part of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Gunmen loyal to the KDP barred a Gorran convoy from entering Arbil. This dangerous maneuver by the KDP to solidify Barzani’s position as regional president has escalated tensions within the KRG and serious political violence may protract. Unless negotiations between the KDP and the opposition parties reaches a meaningful compromise in short order, the KRG could split or collapse as opposition leaders move their operations from the seat of government in Arbil to Suleimaniyah.

This time it is in the region of the Kurds in North east Iraq…..a once fairly stable region but that was yesterday……the Kurds, the most reliable combatant against ISIS, is in the middle of some sort of political upheaval…..

The parliament speaker and ministers are all members of the Gorran party, which the dominant Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) accuses of orchestrating violent protests that resulted in five deaths.

The unrest is the most serious the relatively peaceful region has seen in years and could undermine its effectiveness in the war against Islamic State, in which it is a key ally of the U.S.-led coalition.

The ministers of religious affairs, finance, trade, and peshmerga forces on Monday met Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani who “asked them to leave their posts”, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) spokesman Safeen Dizayee told Reuters.

 

Keep in mind the peshmerga forces are the forces that are fighting ISIS tooth and nail and now their leader has been bumped from the government……how will this effect the fighting capability of the pershmerga?

Also to watch is the complaint that Kurds have had that the US is backing-off on the promises of arms and supplies……

Source: The Kurdish-Islamic State Problem

There is also the fact that Turkish airstrikes in Iraq have targeted Kurdish sites and not so much those of ISIS…

There are those that are predicting a big problem brewing in the region…….

Source: The Kurdish Problem | The National Interest

All this just illustrates that problems will be an inherent part of Iraq for decades to come…..and the once victorious Kurds are not immune to the chaos….no matter how well they fight ISIS……

Most Americans show a serious lack of interest in the dealings in Iraq…..we have become insulted from the chaotic nature of the region……the media is doing the public NO favors by downplaying the situation in the Middle East…….

Just another incident that could well come back and bite the US in the ass….like so many events in the region……..lose focus……..prepare for the bite with lockjaw!