Tag: Islamic State

A Conservative ISIS Analysis

As an analyst and commentator on the Middle East I am always in search of information that I think would be useful for my readers and that could help them understand this region and all its complexities…..

I found such an article in the “American Conservative” and yes I do read conservative thoughts and analyses…..I believe that all analyses are good if it is to help the understanding of what is happening….I really do not care from where the analysis originates…..

The article in AC helps in the understanding of just what ISIS is up to….their thought about the region and what it would look like if they are somehow successful…..

Policymakers and media people—as well as anyone interested in the Middle East, Islam, terrorism, and related issues—need to be talking about al-Jazira. I am not talking here about the Qatar-based……..

Source: The Islamic State’s Retro Map | The American Conservative

I would hope that people would be interested enough to check out the situation….after all our grandchildren will most likely be fighting this battle and beyond…..it would be nice if they were armed with some clarity……don’t you think?

How Do We Spell Success?

We have been bombing the Hell out of ISIS for weeks now……so how is the war going?

We Americans want to know that we are winning the war at this point….after all we have the best air force in the world….so how we doing?

Maybe maps will give my reader an idea…..first map is the area controlled by ISIS before the airstrikes….

 

 

This second map is the area controlled as of 7Oct14…..

 

How shall we spell success?

Can anyone else see a problem here?

This is NOT looking promising for Baghdad.

What do those maps mean?  The best air force in the world needs support from the ground or the bombing program is ineffectual.

If ground support is needed and the US is out of the question…..who will be that force on the ground?   A good question and so far NO good answer.

ISIS Coalition Situation Report (SITREP) #12

Good Day….welcome to briefing 12

The situation in Syria and Iraq are not looking good for the coalition….all the efforts have been short……the forces of ISIS are not being effected by the airstrikes and we know what that will mean….now don’t we?

Item 1–The news is not good about the effectiveness pf the countless airstrikes that have been carried out so far……..especially around the Syrian town of Korbane……

The advance of the Islamic State fighters into a strategically important Syrian city is a development that U.S.-led airstrikes were supposed to preclude. But as many are suggesting, the coalition efforts to stem the Islamic State onslaught have been ineffective. This is, at least in part, because ISIS has changed its tactics.

While Kirby touted successes that included the targeting of oil refineries and other ISIS financial and communication operations, his comments come against the backdrop of a growing skepticism about the campaign. Late last month, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights drew attention to accounts of civilian casualties caused by the airstrikes. This report dovetailed with word of a popular backlash against the American efforts in Syria, where they are perceived as not only aiding Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, but also harming support for the moderate rebel groups fighting there.

That brings into the conversation the deaths of civilians…….so far NO one wants to talk about that and the admin spokespeople avoid the topic like the plague.

Item 2–There are reports that ISIS may be employing CWs in their fight against Iraqi army…….

BAGHDAD — The Islamic State (IS) has been accused of using chlorine gas against Iraqi soldiers who were besieged in Anbar province. Survivors of an Iraqi army regiment in Saqlawiya, near Fallujah, say the radical group used the gas against the besieged soldiers. There were conflicting government statements about whether the gas had been used.

This would open a whole new line of rhetoric by the US…….in case public support starts to waver……especially if the civilian deaths becomes a problem for the admin in the future.

Item 3–Apparently, the former Defense Sec, Leo Panetta, has an agenda…….few people know what his deal is…..but he is talking and the pundit class is jerking off……

Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was harshly critical of President Obama’s handling of the new ISIS war, saying the US could have sustained the 2011 Iraq occupation and started arming Syrian rebels even sooner than they did.

But perhaps the most eye-opening comment in has new book tour was that he believes the conflict is a “30-year war” that will extend across the world, including campaigns in Nigeria, Somalia, and Libya, among other places.

Hawking a new book will do that….make a/holes out of normal people….he would be better off staying on his Walnut farm…..

Item 4–Those ‘moderate’ rebels that we will train……..

Two weeks after US warplanes began bombing Islamic State (Isis) positions in Syria, the Pentagon leadership has yet to make critical decisions about building the proxy rebel force central to its plan for taking territory away from the jihadist army.

US military officials consider raising a Syrian rebel force crucial for the war aim of ultimately destroying Isis without committing US soldiers and marines to another bloody Middle East ground war. But the Pentagon has yet to even assign a US officer to the task of determining which rebels are trustworthy and capable enough to comprise that force.

That should give the American public confidence in the success of this operation (sarcasm)……..

Item 5–Turkey is chomping at the bit to go to war……..

In an interview today on CNN, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said his nation is willing to launch a ground war in Syria with significant “boots on the ground” so long as other nations “do their part” in the war.

Davutoglu says that his nation wants a “clear strategy” in place for the war not just against ISIS, but against the Assad government as well, saying that Turkey doesn’t want a border with either any longer.

Turkey seems to be a bit too anxious for my liking…….and next is…..who will those “others” might likely be?

Item 6–In case anyone is still in the dark about the situation in the Middle East….NATO has made it clear……..

NATO Chief Jens Stollenberg today tried to downplay concerns over the new ISIS war spilling over into neighboring Turkey, insisting that as a NATO member the nation was obliged to defend it from any potential spillover.

Stollenberg made much of the deployment of anti-aircraft missiles along the border with Syria, which of course is totally irrelevant to the war with ISIS, since ISIS does not have warplanes, and presumably the Patriot missiles in southern Turkey aren’t there to prevent US warplanes engaged in airstrikes against ISIS from straying across the border.

His words almost guarantee an expansion of this war….maybe far beyond the region.

That concludes today’s briefing….events are starting to change the complexion of this conflict and further briefings will be issued as events warrant.

Thank you for your time and attention.

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ISIS Coalition Situation Report (SITREP) #11

Good day…..over the weekend events have started to accelerate a bit…..the coalition keeps getting more and more countries signing onto the conflict……the airstrikes continue and it continues to be very limited in their effects on the Islamic State……

The major item that needs to be covered………

According to all official reports the airstrikes for the most part are a roaring success……..but there is a slight problem with the congrats everyone is passing around………

IRBIL, Iraq — Islamic State militants have taken control of key cities in Iraq’s western province of Anbar and have begun to besiege one of the country’s largest military bases in a weeklong offensive that’s brought them within artillery range of Baghdad.

The Islamic State and its tribal allies have dominated Anbar since a surprise offensive last December, but this week’s push was particularly worrisome, because for the first time this year Islamist insurgents were reported to have become a major presence in Abu Ghraib, the last Anbar town on the outskirts of the capital.

Then there is the fighting along the Syria/Turkish border…….

(Reuters) – Islamic State forces shelled the Syrian border town of Kobani on Saturday and its Kurdish defenders said they were expecting a new assault to try to capture it.

U.S.-led coalition warplanes had struck at Islamic State targets overnight to halt the insurgents’ advance and Saturday’s barrages were less intense than the previous day.

Previous coalition air strikes have failed to stop the insurgent offensive and an estimated 180,000 people have fled across the border into Turkey to escape the fighting around Kobani – a conflict now overshadowing Syria’s wider civil war.

It would appear that the airstrikes are not being as successful as they would have the public believe.

Item 1–A major power in the Middle East, Turkey has joined the coalition……

Turkey’s parliament gave the government new powers Thursday to launch military incursions into Syria and Iraq, and to allow foreign forces to use its territory for possible operations against the Islamic State group.

Perhaps more importantly, however, the language of the mandate allows Turkey to use its military forces not only against ISIS, but against virtually anybody they choose to label militants, which opens up the possibility that they will attack Kurdish factions as well, many of whom are labeled “terrorists” under Turkish law.

This could well be the hammer that so many have wanted….I foresee two problems…..1)  the conflict with the Kurds could prove interesting and 2) Turkey wants to be the main influence in the ME…..the Ottomans come to mind.

Item 2–the airstrikes are being ineffectual in some cases….while they are causing destruction it is not slowing the advance of ISIS……

ISIS is continuing to push its offensive against the Kurdish border town of Ayn al-Arab, and reports on the ground say they’ve been more successful than previously suggested.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, ISIS as seized more than 350 villages in the area in the last 16 days, and displaced at least 300,000 people from Ayn al-Arab and the surrounding area.

The airstrikes need to be re-thought….a plan needs formulation.

Item 3–The airstrikes have accomplished one thing….they are forcing IS to change their tactics……

Militants of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants are changing tactics in the face of U.S. air strikes in northern Iraq, ditching conspicuous convoys in favor of motorcycles and planting their black flags on civilian homes, tribal sources and eyewitnesses say.

They reported fewer militant checkpoints to weed out “apostates” and less cell phone use since the air strikes intensified and more U.S. allies pledged to join the campaign that began in August, saying the militants had also split up to limit casualties.

Before the US began attacks on Friday, ISIS was behaving like a traditional military, with its forces moving deliberately and in plain sight. Once the US strikes began, the ISIS troops dispersed, using familiar insurgent tactics to blend in with the local population.

This will make it more difficult to take out major points…about all that will be left is a vehicle or two and a group of soldiers….but major damage will be limited….for now.

Item 4–At least the directors of this newest war are all saying the same thing…….all on the same page if you will……..

President Obama’s newly appointed envoy to the anti-ISIS coalition, retired Gen. John Allen, added his voice to the chorus of officials warning that the war is going to take a long, long time.

Gen. Allen told reporters today that the war is still in “early stages” and that the campaign is going to require time and patience. He also offered some of the first details on the plan for the campaign.

Of course NONE of these leaders will want to admit that it is just the same war they started back in ’03……..

Item 5–Now that Turkey has come into our war there will be a slight problem that some will not acknowledge…….

Syria’s Foreign Ministry has issued a statement today blasting the Turkish parliament for its approval of cross-border operations into Syrian territory, saying the move is an “act of aggression.”

“The declared approach of the Turkish government constitutes a flagrant violation of the United Nations charter, ” the foreign ministry statement warned, saying Turkey would face “catastrophic consequences” if it continued on.

Let us nor forget that the Kurds have been fighting the Turks for decades…..and that will be a problem to watch.

Item 6–The whole ‘moderate’ rebel thing has not been settled yet and already there is a problem brewing in Syria……

To the United States and its allies, the Nusra Front is a fearsome al Qaida affiliate whose extremist ideology has no place in a future Syria.

To many Syrian rebels, however, Nusra fighters are vital warriors in the battle to topple President Bashar Assad, even if the moderates don’t share the group’s end goal of a religious state.

This is the stuff posts are made of…..cannot wait for the real crap to start.
The war seems to be settling into the normal back and forth….ISIS does something….airstrikes endue….then ISIS does something else….we will respond.
That concludes today’s briefing……………stay tuned to this site for your continuing saga of the “Coalition”.
Thanx for your time and attention………..
Turn the page!

ISIS Coalition Situation Report (SITREP) #10

Good Morning and welcome to the briefing for today…….

The war is going….well as good as could be expected……things are about to change and change that will mean more problems in the long run……

Item 1–Syria is trying a new tactic….he has called for a cease fire to help trapped civilians in Homs and other towns…….the government is trying to make it easier for their war to continue….they are hoping this would give them a rest and room to regroup…….

Item 2–Now for the costs of war……..

According to the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments:

Assuming a moderate level of air operations and 2,000 deployed ground forces, the costs would likely run between $200 and $320 million per month. If air operations are conducted at a higher pace and 5,000 ground forces are deployed, the costs would be between $350 and $570 million per month. If operations expand significantly to include the deployment of 25,000 U.S. troops on the ground, as some have recommended, costs would likely reach $1.1 to $1.8 billion per month.

The rising costs will present a problem especially when some are trying to cut funds already.

Item 3–The sectarian problem in Iraq is about to get worse…..

Security and military officials in Kirkuk say Shiite militias are acting with impunity as they fight the Islamic State (IS), carrying out brutal campaigns against Sunni Arabs who are asking for protection from Kurdish forces.

Following the fall of Mosul to IS and as the extremist group inches toward Baghdad, thousands of Shiite militiamen have heeded Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s call to fight IS and mobilized to battlefields in Kirkuk, Mosul, Diyala and Tikrit.

In Iraq there are at least two dozen known Shiite militia groups, including the Badr Brigades, Mehdi Army, Hezbollah, Ali ibn Abutalib and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. The militias are heavily armed and are believed to receive support from the Iraqi army.

A new stronghold for the Shiite militias is the town of Amerli, Salahaddin province, which was under IS siege until a rare joint operation between Peshmerga forces, the Shiite militias, the Iraqi Army and US airstrikes ousted IS in late August. Shiite militias took over the town after IS was pushed back

Sectarianism is back and with a vengeance……it will be far worse than the years the Us was trying to deal with it.

Item 4–Turkey is about to vote on whether to jump into the war militarily……..

Addressing lawmakers in Ankara, the Turkish capital, before a Thursday vote to authorize military intervention in Syria and Iraq, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed his country’s readiness “for any cooperation in the fight against terrorism.”

Erdogan urged lawmakers to vote in favor of the resolution authorizing intervention in Syria and Iraq, which renews a similar 2012 mandate set to expire Saturday. Significantly, this authorization adds language allowing the government to permit “foreign militaries” to use Turkish soil for cross-border attacks, potentially paving the way for the United States to launch airstrikes from Turkish bases. The proposal is expected to pass because Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party has a majority in parliament.

If the vote is yes then it becomes a double edge sword…..it will put a well funded and equipped army on the ground…..but it would give them access to the Kurds who they have been fighting for decades./….if you would like a reference point….think Armenians in the early days of WW1.

Item 5–Canada has started thinking about entering in the air war……..

the Conservative government contemplates sending CF-18 fighter jets into Iraq, Canadian pilots may soon be bombing some of the same gunmen their actions supported several years ago elsewhere.

Item 6–According to the UN the CW production sites in Syria are due to be destroyed…….

The dismantling of Syria’s chemical weapons facilities is expected to begin this month, and the first of the 12 facilities should be destroyed by the end of November, the organization tasked with eliminating the country’s chemical weapons program says.

The report by the director of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons has been sent to the U.N. Security Council.

The council found rare agreement on Syria last year to unanimously approve the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons program, a deal reached under threat of U.S. airstrikes after images of civilian victims laid out after an attack on a Damascus suburb shocked the world. More than 1,000 people are thought to have been killed. President Bashar Assad’s government denied involvement and blamed rebel groups.

Item 7–ISIS continues to find ways to make the news….giving them a PR boost…….

Fighting continues to rage over the Kurdish border town of Ayn al-Arab in northern Syria today, with ISIS continuing its advance and engaging in close-quarters combat with Kurdish militias.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that nine of the Kurdish fighters were captured by ISIS and beheaded, and images emerged claiming to show the heads of display in nearby Jarablous.

This will not be last we hear of this technique…….look for more and more as the war continues…..

Thus reducing the possibilities that Syria can return to the use of CWs in this conflict.

That concludes the briefing for today……watch for further briefings as the events start to unfold……

Thanx for you time and attention…….

Turn the page!

 

ISIS Beheadings

Since the American s were beheaded the nation has been preoccupied with the subject…..to the point that some citizens had to give it a try for themselves……and others have used it to scare their fellow Americans into some stupid visions….

This is a brutal exercise that should not be tolerated No matter where it occurs……this article is well written and should be read…..that is if you are interested in learning a thing or two.

 

ISIS Beheadings.

ISIS Coalition Situation Report (SITREP) #8

Good Morning…..

I continue to issue SITREPS on the continuing saga of the ISIS coalition and the events surrounding it…….situations that are not as important to the media as I think they should……for too long the American people have been plagued with a lack of information and bags of misinformation and most time out right LIES….hope these attempts will make those interested a more powerful voice in their governments need for war…..

Let us begin…..

Item 1–I start with the cost of the war…………..I recently reported that the air war on ISIS is costing $7-10 million a day…….now there is an update……

The air war in Syria and Iraq has already cost nearly $1 billion and ultimately could cost as much as $22 billion per year if a large ground force is deployed to the region, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

The study, due to be released Monday, shows a range of costs based on sustained but low-intensity combat up to a force of 25,000 U.S. troops on the ground.

Keep in mind that all say this will be a prolonged situation….now aswk if that cash could be better spent.  And then ask Congress if they cannot find money to fund school lunches where is this money coming from?

Item 2–We already have about 1600 Amewricans on the ground and now the military is quietly moving more troops into range……..

1,600 US ground troops are already in Iraq, despite the Obama Administration’s claims that there won’t be any ground war in the nation. More or coming to the region very soon.

The Marine Corps has announced a plan to send 2,100 troops to Kuwait as part of the “Special-Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force” for Central Command, to perform assorted “theater sustainment missions.” The exact timing of the deployment is unclear, but will come at some point in FY2015, according to officials.

Keep in mind that Kuwait is a hop from Baghdad……

Item 3–Turkey has been a hold out from joining the coalition…..but since the return of their kidnapped people they seem more open to the exercise…….

Weeks of fighting has put ISIS forces less than 5 km from the outskirts of the key Kurdish border town of Ayn al-Arab, and has them trading fire with Kurdish militias desperately trying to slow their progress.

I understand that they want to protect their border as ISIS inches closer daily……but this smells of something different……..need to keep a close eye on this development……

Item 4–The news is not good for the Iraqi Army….regardless of the hype they are not holding their own on the battlefield……because they seem to be inept they are recruiting now……..

QUSH TAPA, Iraq — The Iraqi military command has begun a campaign to re-enlist soldiers and officers who abandoned their units, a crucial step in its effort to rebuild an army that has been routed in battle after battle by Islamic State jihadists.

Even as the government has continued to equip volunteers, the de facto amnesty for deserters is an acknowledgment that the army desperately needs experienced soldiers……even those that deserted the field recently.

I know they are sucking but is giving cowards a chance to be cowards over again the right tactic?

Item 5–Back in the 90’s I trusted CNN with information from the Middle East……now not so much….so this interview I question it somewhat……….

The United States may be touting its strikes on ISIS targets in Syria, but one of the terror group’s fighters says the hits are trivial at best.

In an exclusive interview with CNN, a Syrian ISIS fighter using the pseudonym Abu Talha said the militant group has been preparing for such attacks.

“We’ve been ready for this for some time,” Abu Talha said. “We know that our bases are known because they’re tracking us with radars and satellites, so we had backup locations.”

It is logical that ISIS was prepared for the attacks since we telegraphed them weeks before it happened……I am still not convinced that this was an accurate interview.

Item 6–Finally, the one subject that everyone in the Obama White House tries to avoid talking about….civilian causalities……

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, US airstrikes against ISIS-held Syria today hit grain silo and other civilian targets, killing at least two civilians and burning multiple silos full of harvested grain.

Locals scrambled to rescue civilian workers trapped by the rubble of the attacks, and it is believed that the US mistook the large silos for “jihadist bases.”

Keep in mind that civilian causalities are inevitable as munch as the admin would rather talk about something else….we will be killing civilians ……and now the count goes on.

That concludes today’s briefing.  Hopefully you can gain insight to the war and its consequences.

Next briefing as needed.

Thanx for your time and attention.

Turn the page!

 

ISIS: Could It Be Death From Within?

Inkwell Institute

Middle East Desk

This post is a moot point…..the US led coalition has started its assault on ISIS in Syria with airstrikes…….so the suggestions in this piece are not going to be taken seriously….but I feel that this is still a viable solution that will cost much fewer lives…….I apologize not posting it sooner but as usual events got the better of me.

Everybody concerned is scrambling around looking for the perfect solution for defeating the rise and expansion of the terrorists group known as ISIS….the US is dashing around trying to put together a coalition that will give some sort of credibility to our involvement in Iraq and the Middle East ……again.

Could the answer be as simple as death from within?

An interesting concept or thought……ISIS destroying itself……..the idea came from something I read the other day……..

It’s tempting to go after ISIS with military might, but that strategy will eventually backfire, writes Chelsea Manning from her prison cell at Fort Leavenworth. Based on her stint as an analyst in Iraq, Manning says that using “bombs and bullets,” is exactly what the group wants. Not only will it help recruitment, it will let ISIS justify its brutality by pointing to the big bad West, writes Manning in the Guardian. So what to do instead? Among other things, the world should set up temporary borders and let ISIS try to do what it says it can—govern a state.

“In a contained area and over a long enough period,” it’s doomed to fail. “This might begin to discredit the leadership and ideology of ISIS for good.” Smart containment and an international moratorium on ransoms to cut off the group’s money supply will help, but having the discipline to let ISIS unravel on its own is key. The militants are “wielding a sharp, heavy and very deadly double-edged sword,” writes Manning. “Now just wait for them to fall on it.” Click for the full column.

Manning has a point.  The coalition could have contained ISIS within a defined area and allowed it to consume itself.

But what type of defined area are we speaking about?

Think back to 1991…..Bush1’s war…..do you remember a tactic called the “no-fly zone”?

France, Great-Britain and the United States established successively, in 1991 and 1992, two zones in Iraq from which all flights by Iraqi fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft were excluded. When they were established, these zones were patrolled by France, British and American combat planes based, for the northern zone, at the Incirlik base near Adana in Turkey, and, for the southern zone, at bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

The first zone was situated north of latitude 36° N. It was established on 7 April 1991, six weeks after the end of the first « Gulf War ». It covered notably the city of Mossoul.

The second air exclusion zone was established south of latitude 32° N on 27 August 1992 and included the southern city of Basra. In September 1996 the United States and United Kingdom enlarged this zone up to the 33th degree of latitude while France distanced itself from this measure and never patrolled this new area.

A similar idea could be established around the areas that ISIS controls…..they could do what they will within the area but once outside the zones they would be attacked and destroyed.

ISIS: How Effective Are The Airstrikes?

Everyday someone from the Admin goes on the tube and tells the American people and the world just how well the action against ISIS is going……..according to them our airstrikes are having an effect……that they are a success…..beyond imagination (well that may be putting words in their mouths but seems like that is what they are trying to say)……..

First the airstrikes, so far we have conducted about 500 airstrikes, probably more…..we have hit command and control, oil fields, vehicles, barracks and militants……..after so much ordnance aimed at the bad guys and all the chest thumping by the Iraqi government that all is well and on track….I have a question.

How do they measure effective?

ISIS has captured more villages on the border with Turkey………and in Iraq, ISIS was overrun one Iraqi base camp killing many and wounding even more….and now under the massive airstrikes, ISIS has surrounded another Iraqi position………

Despite the addition of US airstrikes complicating their operations, ISIS continues to have the advantage on the ground in Iraq, and for the second time in less than a week has cornered a large camp full of Iraqi soldiers.

200 soldiers are believed to be in the Albu Etha camp, and they report that they have begun to run low on food and ammunition. Despite Iraq’s claims of progress against ISIS since the US strikes began, the losses seem to be mounting.

The Iraqi army is having one setback after another and we are told that they are getting control of the ground portion of this conflict.

This brings up another question.

If the Iraqi army is impotent against ISIS, who will be the ground forces that will do all this ISIS killing on the ground?  The Iraqi army has been training to defend their country for 10+ years and yet they are still not ready to do so.

We could always fall back on the Kurds and Peshmerga……..the problem there is without massive air power they would be sucking the sand they live on……so I ask again……who are these ground forces that will successfully eliminate ISIS?

Does anyone have a good answer to these question?

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