We have Ukraine and Russia going at it tooth and nail….we have the whole South China Sea and Taiwan full of dire rhetoric…..all of which just keeps sucking taxpayer dollars away from a country that needs a much needed infusion of cash.

Let’s say these two situations are resolved what then?

Not to worry….there is another bloody conflict in the wings to keep the arms dealers happy.

Two former Soviet republics went to war less than three years ago over a disputed region, and it appears they’re on the brink of another full-scale conflict, reports the AP. The dispute is between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia over the region known as Nagorno-Karabakh. As the BBC explains, the latter is located entirely within the borders of Azerbaijan, but it is populated mostly by ethnic Armenians. The two nations have fought previously over the region, first in the early 1990s when Armenia took control of it after the fall of the USSR, and again in 2020, when Azerbaijan reclaimed it. Part of the convoluted mix: Azerbaijan is backed by Turkey, while Armenia is a longtime ally of Russia, though relations have soured of late over the Ukraine war.

• Russia’s role: Moscow is supposed to be keeping the peace between the two nations, a pledge it made after the last war, but its own war with Ukraine has “distracted” from that, as the New York Times puts it.
• Shelling: On Tuesday, Azerbaijan launched artillery fire onto Nagorno-Karabakh in what it calls an “anti-terrorist” campaign, per CNN. The de facto capital of Stepanakert was hit particularly hard, though details about casualties and damages were scant in the early going. The shelling is the culmination of months of simmering tensions.
• Key road: A single road, called the Lachin Corridor, links Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, explains Politico. Russian peacekeepers are supposed to be keeping it open, but an “emboldened Azerbaijan” has largely taken control of it in recent months, per the Times. That leaves Nagorno-Karabakh essentially cut off from supplies of food and fuel, and it’s raising fears of ethnic cleansing.
• Diplomacy falters: “It looks like it could be, unfortunately, terrible—war number three, something that people have been fearing but hoping to avoid with diplomacy in the last few weeks and months,” Thomas de Waal, a regional specialist at the Carnegie Europe foundation, tells the AP. Politico notes that the conflict also complicates Europe’s plan to court Azerbaijan as an alternative fuel source to Russia.

Just like Ukraine there is a disputed region….plus it is not far from the trade lanes to Europe….making it very important.  (That will be the excuse)

How will the US respond when this turns into a massive cock-up?

A couple of years ago I wrote a post about this very region….

Nagorno-Karabakh?

And ten years ago I predicted this couple happen at any time….

Looking For The Linchpin

Damn!  It’s good being insightful!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”