With the war raging in Ukraine and a few minor shots at his authority many Americans want to see Putin gone and soon forgotten.
I know most people just want Putin gone does not matter how but it does matter and things could be worse.
But what would be the pathways that Russia could take to get to a Post-Putin Russia?
From time to time I get some post doc papers and I enjoy other people’s take on international situations…..this one is about the post-Putin Russia possibilities.
What is clear is that Putin will not take up Prigozhin’s suggestion of blaming others for the disastrous war in Ukraine in order to end it on terms short of what now appears to be an unattainable Russian victory. It might not be until Putin is succeeded by another leader that Russia can do this. But the Wagner rebellion, even though unsuccessful, has raised the possibility that Putin is vulnerable, and that a successor to him could arise.
Putin, of course, may continue to exert his rule over Russia through the end of the 2020s, the 2030s, or possibly even longer. He succeeded, after all, in facing down the Wagner rebellion. But the Wagner rebellion raises the possibility that he may suddenly and unexpectedly fall from power some time soon. Nobody, including Putin himself, knows for sure when or how his rule over Russia will come to an end. But whether as a result of his death, incapacity, overthrow, or decision not to run for re-election in 2024 (this last being the least likely), Putin’s reign will definitely come to an end at some point.
Just as it is uncertain when Putin’s hold on power will come to an end, it is also uncertain how much or even whether Russia will change after it does. This article will explore the likelihood of five possible post-Putin pathways for Russia: 1) Putinism without Putin; 2) democratization; 3) prudent authoritarianism; 4) Chinese overlordship; and 5) the breakup of Russia.
Just as important, this article will also explore the possibilities for six of Putin’s current domestic and foreign policy priorities to be continued or revised under each of these five potential pathways. These six Putin priorities are: 1) maintaining dictatorship over Russia; 2) maintaining or even enhancing Russia’s great power status; 3) continuing the ongoing war against Ukraine in order to at minimum retain control of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russian forces; 4) continuing to see America and the West as Russia’s principal security threats; 5) continuing Russia’s strategic partnership with China despite any misgivings Moscow may have over increasing Russian dependence on Beijing; and 6) maintaining Russia’s territorial integrity. First, though, something needs to be said about Putin’s own commitment to these priorities as well as his ability to pursue them.
Post-Putin Russia: Five Potential Pathways
Some interesting takes on the possibilities….my thought is that there will be a form of what this paper calls ‘prudent authoritarianism’….that will replace Putin for a time.
I know it is a long paper but do road it and let me know what direction you think Russia would take after Putin.
Just something to think about….you can do it if you try.
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”
In Saner Thought 
When Putin is gone there will be someone worse to take his place unless there is a repeat of 1917.
But what will replace his form of government. chuq
A Gorbachof type of thing… for awhile.. until another strong man surfaces and becomes another Stalin– I am sure they have a Trump waiting in the wings somewhere …
Gotcha….so no chance for some form of democracy? chuq
Russians do not understand democracy…
Look at the world and ask anyone understand it? chuq
No, nobody understands anything beyond the results of their own petty little desires for instant gratification.
There lies the problem…laziness….chuq
Not being much of an international wonk, any speculation I might conjure up will likely be ill-informed. That being said…
Seems to me the question falls into certain segments.. there’s a “what could happen”, a “what should happen”, and “what will happen”, the latter being the most unpredictable, and the reason for the discussion.
One of the pluses of authoritarian regimes is that one needs only to focus on the behavior of a singular person vs. the complexities of democracies reflecting a swayable public opinion. I am sure deep within the bowels of the CIA/NSA and intel think tanks there’s some pretty good psych evals of Putin… just as we’ve done for political reasons (as other nations have) regarding Trump (Biden, et al). How does that compute as to post-Putin outcomes for Russia? Well, first off we have to determine how we even get to a “post-Putin” Russia… meaning how does he get out of the picture. There’s a short term and long term to that… and any number of scenarios. What I am suggesting is that before we can determine a post-Putin Russia we need to focus on a current “Putin-Russia”. To me that means, Putin’s conduct of the war on Ukraine, Putin’s administration of the country in general, and the underlying influences of money and the economy playing on the oligarchs. Here’s the thing.. we in the West are only dabbling with this question because of Russia having nukes. Take the nukes out of the picture and we’d all be ignoring Russia as simply another belligerent state… and worrying more about China. We shan’t lose that perspective in all this. Putin remains important as long as his nukes exist… and that marriage is not likely to change. This would also suggest that anyone controlling the nukes in Russia is the guy in-charge for the West.. and that may not necessarily mean some guy with the official title of “President of the Russian Federation”.
So it’s my impression that we need to focus on possible events (or creating events) to which Putin’s psych eval can be put to use regarding any possible predictable reactions toward them, and go from there to make him less effective as leader. Also, while doing that let’s hope the intel community has profiles of possible alternatives to fill any vacuums as Putin’s influence recedes.
I think we are way too early to speculate on a post-Putin Russia and take it seriously. No time for the “Yalta/Malta Conference” for deciding a post-Putin Russia just yet. Things are way to unpredictable, among which is Putin’s stay in power. So far, other than the Wagner threat (and we have NO idea where that’s even going, or if it’s even still a threat) there seems no internal movement afoot to deal with Putin.
Just look at the character of the Russian people and one could make an informed guess (for lack of a better word) We, the West, needs Putin….if the Chinese thing does not explode we will need another bad guy to keep the process going. chuq
I don’t see the Chinese getting too far outta hand given our economies are so entwined… but… Xi seems to be relatively good so far in maintaining the balance between us and Putin. I see Xi as more the counterbalance against Putin. I realize your preference for inserting some MI-C conspiracy to keep a “bad guy” going… not sure I share that. But your pulse on international affairs is better than mine. As for the Russian people… all they need is information. Certainly historically life isn’t worth much over there in general which tends to feed their nationalistic pride (or vide versa). But open up the Internet and they will gulp down Western ideas. They are still in our 1920’s as it relates to democracy/corruption it seems.
Look at the profits made from war…..is there any other reason? chuq
I suspect the end of Putin will see a return to some form of military rule. He has managed to squash any vestige of democracy, so a newly-empowered military might well take over when he has gone. Then a new Cold War could really begin.
Best wishes, Pete.
Nice thought Pete….you may be spot on….I am thinking democracy will have little chance at first….maybe ;later. chuq
The ‘plan’ is to break up Russia into many smaller ‘states’ which can be easily controlled and ‘managed’ by the CIA, state dept, and US empire.
Would that work? The process of change will be messy and interesting to observe. chuq