Day: May 9, 2023

Trends Favor Trump

I wrote yesterday that if Trump and Biden were to meet in the election of 2024 Trump could feasibly win…..I know that sends chills down many of our spines……

As it is today there are a couple of things that would break in favor of Trump if the election were today (thank god it is more than a year away)……

Election Day is still 546 days away, meaning you can take the current polls with an extra-large grain of salt. Still, political stories are taking note of two clear trends of late, both of them positive for former President Trump. First, he’s cementing his lead over Ron DeSantis and the rest of the GOP field. And second, President Biden looks increasingly vulnerable in a one-on-one rematch. Coverage:

  • Biden trouble: Much of the chatter stems from a Washington Post/ABC poll showing Trump ahead of Biden by 6 points. “No single poll means all that much, especially so early in an election cycle, and the president’s strategists as well as some independent analysts questioned its methodology,” writes Peter Baker in a New York Times analysis. But other polls suggest the race is at least extremely close. “Taken together, they suggest that the president opens the 2024 campaign facing enormous challenges with no guarantee of victory over Mr. Trump.”
  • Trump surge: “For the first time in a long time, top Republicans and Democrats are telling us the same thing, in the same words—Trump looks impossible to beat for the Republican nomination,” writes Mike Allen at Axios. The piece notes that Trump is surging, and picking up key House endorsements, despite a steady drumbeat of negative stories related to his legal fights.
  • surge, II: At Politico, an analysis suggests those negative stories are helping the former president, at least among rank-and-file Republicans. After he was indicted in the Stormy Daniels case, support for Trump among GOP county chairs across the country improved, writes Seth Masket, a professor of political science and director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver. “County chairs are figures who will play a key role in shaping the race,” he notes, adding that this uptick came largely at the expense of DeSantis.
  • Biden trouble, II: In breaking down the Post poll cited above, CNN’s Kate Bolduan makes the case that Biden’s approval rating of 36% is the lowest of any president at this point in the first term, per Mediaite. A post at FiveThirtyEight has a slightly different take on that. But Biden might take comfort in knowing that Ronald Reagan was only a smidge above him at this point in his presidency, and he went on to win reelection, per the Times.
  • Trump surge, II: At Politico, an analysis suggests those negative stories are helping the former president, at least among rank-and-file Republicans. After he was indicted in the Stormy Daniels case, support for Trump among GOP county chairs across the country improved, writes Seth Masket, a professor of political science and director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver. “County chairs are figures who will play a key role in shaping the race,” he notes, adding that this uptick came largely at the expense of DeSantis.
  • Biden trouble, II: In breaking down the Post poll cited above, CNN’s Kate Bolduan makes the case that Biden’s approval rating of 36% is the lowest of any president at this point in the first term, per Mediaite. A post at FiveThirtyEight has a slightly different take on that. But Biden might take comfort in knowing that Ronald Reagan was only a smidge above him at this point in his presidency, and he went on to win reelection, per the Times.

I am sorry that I post this far in advance…..put I feel that voters should be well aware of what could happen if they go into the polls unprepared…..that is what happened in 2016 and yet that 4 year disaster is coming to bite us in the ass if we are not careful and informed.

Me?  I think these two old farts should be in a home making wallets out of popscile sticks….I will vote for anyone but these two dried plums.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

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NATO Moves East

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has decided to open an office in Japan to help deal with the growing threat from China and other future problems.

NATO is planning to open a liaison office in Japan next year, the alliance’s first in Asia, Nikkei Asia reported Wednesday.

In recent years, NATO has turned its gaze toward the Asia Pacific region and named China a “systemic challenge” in its 2022 Strategic Concept. As part of its strategy against China, the alliance is deepening cooperation with countries in the region.

According to Nikkei, the purpose of the liaison office in Japan is to “allow the military alliance to conduct periodic consultations with Japan and key partners in the region, such as South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand as China emerges as a new challenge, alongside its traditional focus on Russia.”

The report said NATO and Japan will take more steps to increase cooperation by signing an agreement known as an Individually Tailored Partnership Programme ahead of the NATO summit that will be held in Vilnius, Lithuania, in June. Japan also plans to open an independent mission to NATO, separate from the Embassy in Belgium.

In response to the news, China warned of NATO’s plans to expand into Asia. “Asia is an anchor for peace and stability and a promising land for cooperation and development, not a wrestling ground for geopolitical competition,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning.

“NATO’s continued eastward foray into the Asia Pacific and interference in regional affairs will inevitably undermine regional peace and stability and stoke camp confrontation. This calls for high vigilance among regional countries,” she added.

(antiwar.com)

With the move into Asia the organization should consider re-naming the group to reflect its expansion into the rest of the world outside Europe…..something that will reflect its growing power…..something like maybe the United Nations…..oh wait that one is already taken…..think on.

Yep I do not think the US should encourage this move…..we already have a strong presence in Asia thanks to the mash-up in the South China Sea and the so-called threat to Taiwan.

Yet another way to siphon off taxpayer dollars….just what our budget needs these days.

Whole NATO prepares to expand apparently so does Russia.

Russia will “develop” its military installations in Central Asian ally Kyrgyzstan, the Kremlin said Monday, following talks between the two countries’ leaders in Moscow.

“The heads of state emphasized the importance of strengthening the Kyrgyz Republic’s armed forces and developing Russian military facilities on its territory,” the Kremlin said in a statement.

Kyrgyzstan, a majority-Muslim country of nearly seven million people, hosts a Russian military base made up of an airfield, a naval installation on Lake Issyk-Kul and several other sites.

Russia and Kyrgyzstan, an ex-Soviet republic, are linked through a Moscow-led military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

According to the statement released by the Kremlin, the two countries also expect to “deepen military and technical cooperation” as well as their economic and cultural relations in order to “reach a new level of integration.”

(thedefensepost.com)

Just when does this insanity end?  (That is rhetorical)

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”