Day: May 5, 2022

Is The World United Behind Sanctions?

Good question and the best answer is….NO they are not.

Biden has tried to whip up the world’s nations into action against Russia for its part in the invasion of Ukraine…..Europe appears to be on-board….but not the rest of the world.

Americans are fervently cheering for Ukraine in a war that many believe is a decisive struggle for human freedom. The intensity of our infatuation makes it easy to assume that everyone in the world shares it. They don’t. 

The impassioned American reaction is matched only in Europe, Canada, and the handful of U.S. allies in East Asia. For many people in the rest of the world, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is just another pointless Western war in which they have no stake.

The two biggest countries in Latin America, Mexico and Brazil, have refused to impose sanctions on Russia or to curtail trade. South Africa, the economic powerhouse of the African continent, has done the same. Asia, though, is where the resistance to joining the pro-Ukraine bloc appears most deliberate and widespread. This has alarmed Washington. To fight back, the United States is cracking its whip over several Asian nations.

China and India, where more than one-third of the world’s people live, are the most potent dissenters. Both abstained from the recent United Nations vote condemning Russia, and both reject U.S.-backed sanctions. There isn’t much more we can do to punish China, but India might seem more vulnerable. Soon after the UN vote, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the United States had begun “monitoring some recent concerning developments in India, including a rise in human rights abuses.” Then President Biden’s chief economic advisor, Brian Deese, warned India that it would face “significant and long-term consequences” if it does not reconsider its “strategic alignment.”

Pakistan, a nuclear power with 200 million people, did more than simply abstain from the UN vote. When the United States asked Prime Minister Imran Khan to join the anti-Russia coalition, he scoffed, “Are we your slaves…that whatever you say, we will do?”  This came not long after he told the Pentagon: “Any bases, any sort of action from Pakistani territory into Afghanistan, absolutely not.”  On the day President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, Khan was with him in the Kremlin.

These countries are willing to risk US ire over Russia-Ukraine

So to answer my question….NO the world is not united against Russia on the sanctions proposals.

Any thoughts?

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‘What If’ Russia Wins?

Another post that should start the chins a-flappin’!

Sarcasm aside this is just a hypothetical…..so please read it as so…..

Ukraine has won the admiration of much of the world in its defense against Russian aggression. Even in the Global South, whose governments have criticized the West’s selective morality and pressure to sanction Moscow, sympathy runs toward Kyiv. However, Russia, despite its botched initial advance, retains substantial military advantages. What if it wins the war?

This is not a popular question in Washington. Kyiv’s stout resistance, unexpectedly symbolized by Volodymyr Zelensky, has created soaring expectations. A combination of factors – Ukrainians fighting for their homeland, Western arms shipments, Moscow’s overconfidence, and other Russian blunders – enabled Kyiv to blunt the initial offensive and defeat Moscow’s drive on Ukraine’s capital.

However, Russia’s disastrous start proved to be merely the first act. Regrouping improved Moscow’s prospects. Vladimir Putin replaced deficient military leadership and shifted forces to concentrate on the Donbass in Ukraine’s east. Low morale and deficient logistics remain problems, and defending Ukrainian forces are well-trained and -motivated. But Russia’s advantages in mass and firepower should not be underestimated.

Although predicting a Russian victory would be foolish given the course of the war so far, an extended stalemate is possible and would constitute a de facto defeat for Ukraine, which is the battleground. Thousands likely have died so far, military personnel and civilians. An estimated 5.2 million Ukrainians have fled to surrounding countries and another 7.1 million people have been displaced internally – in total about 30 percent of the population. The World Bank estimates that the economy will shrink almost in half this year. Ukrainians are facing enormous hardship.

As long as fighting continues, even if limited to Ukraine’s east, these and other disruptions will continue. Those driven from their homes will hesitate to return if missile and air attacks continue and renewed Russian ground operations remain possible. Businesses cannot operate normally even outside of combat zones with territory occupied, safety compromised, and people away.

What if Russia Wins Its War Against Ukraine

No one here is pulling for Russia to win this conflict….if we cannot look forward then we will always be looking back and scratching our heads.

War is war…there will be winners and losers….to ignore that fact is just plain silly.

Is there a comparison?

If you’ve been feeling pretty optimistic about Ukraine’s chance of vanquishing Russia, Michael O’Hanlon is here to burst your bubble. O’Hanlon, the Philip H. Knight Chair in Defense and Strategy at the Brookings Institution, allows that Ukraine has “performed amazingly well so far” in a piece for the Hill, but he doesn’t think it’s sustainable for the long term. To illustrate his point, he likens this war to another: the Civil War. O’Hanlon lays out the parallels, starting with the population ratio of the North to the South (taking into account just white settlers) of about 3.5 to 1; that’s in line with the Russia-to-Ukraine population ratio.

The military strength ratios are similar as well. The early battles of the Civil War—he calls out Manassas, Seven Pines, Fredericksburg, and Chancellorsville—were won by the “underdog,” too. The tide began to turn in September 1862 with the Battle of Antietam, writes O’Hanlon, and he shares Ulysses S. Grant’s assessment of the situation: “The enemy have not army enough.” O’Hanlon writes “the Confederacy probably still won more of the battles than it lost—though not all—but not by margin enough to compensate for its disadvantage in size or resources.” Yes, it’s possible that Ukraine could be the underdog exception, but in O’Hanlon’s view, it’s unlikely. He sees the best, if “unpalatable,” outcome as one in which Ukraine likely agrees to give up some of its territory.

(Read the full column, which compares the current situation to two other past invasions.)

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