Tag: Taleban

We Have a Winner!

We Americans love some winners…..but not all winners are good news….

Recently the US used a drone (the weapon of choice for targeted assassination) to kill the leader of Afghanistan’s Taleban….and this time he is really dead…..not some press release that is retracted in a week or so….nope the dude is dead….confirmed by the Taleban themselves.  (I still would like to know how many civilians were at the location).

After the death announcement was released the Taleban stated that there would be a shura (supreme council) to pick the new leader for the Taleban….and the winner is…….

Senior Taliban members, after successfully evading American drone strikes for long enough to hold a leadership conference, have named a successor to the leader killed in a US airstrike last week. The Afghan Taliban, acknowledging Mullah Mansour’s death for the first time, announced Wednesday that he will be succeeded by one of his deputies, Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada. The BBC reports that unlike Mansour, Akhundzada is an uncontroversial choice who has, until now, served more as a religious leader than a military commander and has issued most of the group’s fatwas.

Akhundzada is believed to be a member of the powerful Noorzai tribe from Kandahar, which analysts say will make it easier for him to unite the group. The BBC puts the new leader’s age at somewhere between 45 and 50, though Reuters reports that it’s closer to 60. He is a former aide to Mullah Omar, according to Taliban sources, and like that leader, he is notoriously camera-shy. On the same day Akhundzada was named as the group’s leader, the Afghan Taliban claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing that hit a minibus carrying court employees in Kabul that killed at least 10 people, the AP reports.

Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada

He was said to have been chosen over two key rivals – Sirajuddin Haqqani and Maulvi Yakub – due to his religious background.

Now the question is will the two that were passed over take the loss well?

The next question…at least in my mind is……if the US knew the shura was going to happen why not try to take out the council in one fell swoop?

But I guess that is a post for another day…I would not want to confuse my readers unnecessarily.

Afghanistan: Shift to a ‘Conditions–Based’ Strategy or Lose the ‘Forgotten War”

For 15 years the Us has been involved in a war in Afghanistan…..there has been much written about this conflict and much speculation has come about on how to handle the war and how to extract the US from it without a relapse from the 1990’s.

Baqck in those days once the USSR pulled out the US lost all interest in the country and this allowed the rise of the Taleban and AQ……which allowed the world to go to war yet again.

The problem here is that there seems to be NO way out for the US.  Only a proper strategy will allow us to claim success or we will lose the war and yet again allow the Taleban to be on the rise…..

Source: Afghanistan: Shift to a ‘Conditions–Based’ Strategy or Lose the ‘Forgotten War’ | World Affairs Journal

Afghanistan: War Without End

Does anyone out there remember Afghanistan?

It was that war of yesteryear that we focused all of our patriotic zeal toward……but now?  Not so much…..remember now?

My granddaughter was born after the US invaded Afghanistan….she is going on 13 and she has never known a time when the US was not at war…..though she probably does not know of it because the media and the government does not want a repeat of the 60’s and 70’s protests…….

In 2001 after the 9/11 attacks we invaded Afghanistan in search for the mastermind of the attacks…..Osama…..with the help of a few of our allies and the Northern Alliance we went in and kicked the Taleban and AQ in the stomach…..the only blotch on our achievements was that the military and others allowed the most wanted man escape across the mountains into Pakistan……

So for over 15 years we have been in a running battle with AQ, the Taleban and whoever else wants to join the fray….you would think with the might of the US military would have worn down the Taleban to a few isolated pockets, right?

You would be mistaken…….

15 years into the US occupation of Afghanistan, the nation is a less occupied than ever, as a new report to Congress warns that the Taliban’s military gains have left it in control of a bigger chunk of the country than at any time since the 2001 US invasion.

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), the author of the quarterly report, cited tens of billions of dollars in waste and a general lack of security, warning the situation in Afghanistan is worsening by most metrics.

Pentagon officials have been warning for awhile that the situation on the ground is deteriorating, but the SIGAR report offered more specifics and a stark metric, territory hold, by which to measure just how badly things are getting.

What is the end game for Afghanistan?

Pentagon officials have recently talked of the 2017 pullout date as though it’s all but abandoned already, suggesting the US would remain in the nation for “generations” to come. Nicholson may be overseeing the transition to that permanent occupation.

I think that the last paragraph says it all……

Anyone think that maybe a new plan would be advisable?  This pre-World War Two thinking is getting this fight nowhere…..15 years and we are NO better situated than we were when we invaded….

Time for a massive re-think………America does not need a war without end.

 

Should We Stick A Fork In The Taliban?

Since we went to Afghanistan in 2001 as a response to the attacks of 9/11…. we have been fighting AQ and the Taleban……we have fought them tooth and nail and still not much has happened to change things in Afghanistan….

The US and its allies have made head way only to lose that to the change of seasons…..in the winter months we take it to the max and then in Spring the Taleban returns as ferocious as before….it is a back and forth conflict….and neither side has been able to establish victory although many have predicted so…..not much would substantiate the claims….

And while we concentrate on stopping the Taleban AQ and ISIS factions are making in-roads into the country and its people……there have been some amazing Taleban victories in the north of the country this year…..it is far from over….

The Taleban almost look invincible….they appear to be able to survive no matter what we throw at them……but is that observation correct?

There is an opinion that the Taleban is on life support and that their end is near….Despite their recent military gain in Kunduz, the Taliban’s demise has already begun.

Source: The Taliban’s days are almost over – Al Jazeera English

Is this a fact or is it creative journalism?

Or maybe….just wishful thinking……..

Afghanistan: It’s Still There

Believe it or not……Afghanistan is still there and still fighting rages……fierce fighting.  I know the media does not seem to care but believe me there is more happening in Afghanistan than you can imagine…….

Did you know or were you told that the Northern city of Kunduz has fallen to the Taleban?  No?

During their annual Spring Offensive, the Taliban set its sights on northern parts of Afghanistan, particularly centering on the Kunduz Province. The fighting continued throughout spring and summer, with Taliban forces seizing several districts. Today, they captured the city of Kunduz itself.

The Afghan Interior Ministry confirmed that defenses in the city had “collapsed” in the face of the latest offensive, and while they’re talking up a counteroffensive to try to retake the city, the Taliban have wasted no time in capturing all the significant buildings in the city, and are moving on the airport.

This is why some observers say the takeover of Kunduz is more a failure of the Afghan state than a victory for the Taliban.

“The Taliban did not come out of nowhere to take over Kunduz. Their fighters had been there for quite some time launching small-scale attacks on the city. This was meant to be a war of attrition against Afghan forces that would in turn pave the way for a full-scale offensive. And that’s exactly what happened,” Michael Kugelman, Afghanistan expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, told DW.

The US has responded by launching the usual airstrikes……and since airstrikes do not retake territory….the US went to plan B….

Special forces from the US-led coalition in Afghanistan, reportedly including US troops, battled Taliban militants on the ground in Kunduz Wednesday in an attempt to retake the city after Afghan forces were overrun Monday. It marks the first time foreign forces have clashed with the Taliban during the conflict in Kunduz, Reuters reports. Coalition rep Col. Brian Tribus says the forces took part in a mission near Kunduz airport where Afghan forces have made a base. “Coalition special forces advisers, while advising and assisting elements of the Afghan Security Forces, encountered an insurgent threat in the vicinity of the Kunduz airport at approximately 1am,” Tribus says. “When they encountered the threat, they defended themselves.”

Tribus wouldn’t provide the nationalities of the coalition fighters, but a senior Afghan security official says 100 members of US special forces were involved. He adds they wore night-vision goggles as they left the airport and returned after eliminating Taliban attackers. Tribus adds US forces also conducted their third airstrike near Kunduz since Tuesday, targeting a spot near the airport Wednesday morning. A rep for the Public Health Ministry says 30 people have been killed and 200 injured in the fighting and “around 90% of them are civilians.” The coalition said Wednesday that a soldier was killed in northern Afghanistan, but from a “non-battle cause,” reports the Washington Post. A US military official says he expects the estimated 500 Taliban fighters to be expelled from Kunduz within weeks.

The fighting continues…..and could this be the beginning of a whole new war?

Should we get involved?  Or should we let the Afghans do the heavy lifting?

This smells like deeper involvement.

Thoughts?

Afghanistan: The Clock Is Ticking

Back in the day we ended our major deployment of troops in Afghanistan……they came home……well almost the admin has decided to leave a sizable force behind to help the Afghan Army maintain control of the situation.

I recall when the announcement was made of the date of our almost withdrawal the Right went batcrap crazy yelling that we were giving the Taliban a schedule for their attacks…..remember that?

It appears that the Taliban is not at all intimidated by the presence of US troops…….even with the expanded amount of troops the Taliban has served up the date for their renewed attacks on the government……

The Taliban said today they will start their spring offensive this week, an annual campaign in their war against the Afghan government. In an emailed statement, the group said the offensive—dubbed “Azm” or perseverance in Dari and Arabic—will begin on Friday. The Taliban said their Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is “determined to prolong the ongoing jihad,” or holy war. In past years, spring and the melting of snow on the mountains along the border with Pakistan have marked a significant upsurge in fighting between the Taliban and NATO forces along with their local allies. This fighting season is the first year the insurgents will face just Afghan forces on the battlefield after the withdrawal of most international combat troops at the end of last year.

While a long-term demand of the group has been the withdrawal of international military from Afghanistan, the statement said that under US leadership, the “crusaders” will maintain “control of our land and space” through security agreements with the Afghan government. Attacks across the north and east have intensified in the build-up to the launch of this year’s fighting season. The insurgents can be expected to fight until snow falls on the Hindu Kush. But after more than a decade of war, the Taliban appear no closer to their goal of overthrowing the Kabul government. This has opened up an opportunity for what is perceived to be an Islamic State affiliate to establish a small presence in Afghanistan. But despite the nascent ISIS presence, the Taliban appear to be spreading their influence to areas where they have not had a significant presence.

I think that the war hawks have more to worry about than the timetable.  The Taliban is this bold then they are prepared for whatever the Afghan Army, police and the troops have to throw at them………

Does anyone want to give the Afghan Army a vote of confidence and say they will be able to handle this resurgent threat?  (Think it over)

Smells like a new expansion for the US……

Watch this spot!

The Making of a Christian Taliban in Ukraine – The Intercept

Speaking of the morality police………  (my previous post)……..

This is a story that more religious people will not pay any attention to because it does not it the paradigm that they have formulating concerning Islamic extremists……for you see Christians would not do the things that these Muslims would do…..

Take the Taliban in Afghanistan…….strict adherence to religious law…..but that could never happen with us good Christians, right?

This article needs to be read and passed on……the question needs asking….will this expand beyond Ukraine?

 

The Making of a Christian Taliban in Ukraine – The Intercept.

Pakistani Taliban vow support for ISIS fighters – Al Arabiya News

The war in Afghanistan is over!…..pause here for raucous laughter……it will NEVER be over.

There is a story that most have missed and could be a major developing problem for any force left behind and for the country as a whole…….Afghanistan will not be the most stable country in the region and developing events will do nothing to assist the stability.

 

Pakistani Taliban vow support for ISIS fighters – Al Arabiya News.

Afghanistan: And The Beat Goes On

2014 the supposed end of the US involvement in Afghanistan…..well that was the plan as with all plans the Pentagon makes it does not seem to work out……about a month ago it was released that the US troops would keep a sizable force in the country until further notice……

It seems that the US as well as the Afghan government is not comfortable holding on to control of the country without the might of the US troops……situations of conflict against the Taleban are on the rise…….

Following the departure of most US forces from Afghanistan, clashes between its security forces and the Taliban have been renewed, with brutal fighting returning to areas that had been comparatively quiet, the New York Times reports. From June to November, some 1,300 members of Afghan security forces were killed in Helmand province alone, and a local hospital remained nearly full even after the customary fighting season ended. Many civilians have also been treated at the hospital, including 940 women and children through October. “This year is much worse than previous years,” says a medical official. Indeed, over the course of the year, the country has seen some 5,000 security-force deaths, a record, the Times reports.

Civilian deaths have also hit a record high, and total civilian casualties are poised to pass 10,000 for the year, Reuters reports. The UN says three-quarters of the 3,188 civilians killed through November were killed by insurgents, a figure the Taliban calls “biased and unfounded,” Reuters notes. Meanwhile, the country has seen increased corruption and declines in government services since the US departed. “Our own commanders sell our bullets to the Taliban instead of giving them to us, and then they buy a nice house in Lashkar Gah and stay there, leaving the little guys out there to do the fighting,” says a wounded police officer. But the Afghan forces are still “holding on,” the Times notes, and an Afghan official says 151 Taliban members have been killed in 12 days of fighting near the Pakistani border, the AP reports.

The prognosis SUCKS!

Yet another country that we will NEVER find a good way to depart and leave the country in the hands of its own population.

Another endless war with endless deployments…..at every turn US troops will be in danger…..more problems for the veterans that already have a problem getting the help they need.

And NO one noticed!

Time Has Come Today

Inkwell Institute

Central Asian Desk

A great song from the 60’s, Time Has Come Today by the Chambers Brothers…….and as in the song the time has come for you to face reality…..and reality is Afghanistan.  Ir a better title might have been….Afghanistan:  The Forgotten War.

 

In the year of our Lord, 2014, US troops will be leaving Afghanistan and we shall leave the country to its own devices.

Now the question is going around….will Afghanistan become the next Iraq?  I am so glad you asked!  Maybe not the question on your lips but international geeks like me it deserves some thought.

When the Russians pulled out in 1989 there was an immediate vacuum….and the Taleban waltzed in and took control and the rest, as they say, is history.

And now another invasion force will leave and the country once again will be to their own devices….this time the world will expect a different outcome…..for you see the US pressed for a democracy and the country has had some, well a couple of elections by now…..and almost every time they have been contentious……so what does the world expect with this withdrawal?

A former US Air Force officer, Justin Pavoni,  that served two tours in country has come up with the perfect checklist for when the US finally walks away from Afghanistan……..

  1. Behind the scenes the United States will broker a handshake deal with the Taliban in vain hopes that they do not simply overrun the country again and uproot the Kabul government. This has been going on for years. It is also the primary motivation behind the recent Bergdahl prisoner exchange.
  2. An Active Duty military drawdown from theater will be followed by the eventual announcement that the “last” American boots are off the ground in Afghanistan. Instead of conventional active duty troops the United States will keep a small contingent of extra-governmental and special operations operators (CIA, private military contractors, JSOC personnel) in theater. Sorties will still be flown in country but all active duty airmen will launch from one of the permanent bases in theater (e.g. Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar). American aviators will drop bombs with “civilian” controllers (in very limited areas) but will be hesitant to do so with exclusively Afghani personnel on the mic (the vast majority of the country).
  3. Some of the military gear is being shipped home as part of the military’s retrograde equipment program but the much of it “in theater” is likely to stay exactly where it is. From a financial perspective it would be more efficient to let it sit in the Afghan dust forever because the cost of transportation far outweighs the value of the equipment. Eventually I suspect much of it will be turned over to the supervision of an inept Afghani government or sold to other foreign nations somewhere along the silk-road (sound familiar?). This is a real-world example of how the military industrial complex works.
  4. To “compensate” the United States government, Kabul is likely to “buy” some military gear at a greatly discounted rate. Considering the fact that the entire GDP of Afghanistan is less than $35 billion (much of which comes from US service-members shopping at the base bazaar), it should be obvious that Afghanistan can’t actually pay for the equipment itself. Therefore the United States is likely to “help” them through the provision of foreign aid and a fiat money loan presumably coordinated by the IMF (which of course does not expect to actually be paid back except through further fiat loans). The net effect will be an attempt by the United States to buy soft power in yet another foreign administration and to justify government spending (despite the obvious losses) as a statistical contribution to American GDP.
  5. A little bit of time will pass – say, for example, one or two years after the removal of ground troops. There will be small news stories along the way about a skirmish here or there. Most incidents will go unreported as most news agencies will be evacuated from large portions of the country.
  6. The Kabul government’s deal with the Taliban will eventually fall apart. The Afghani military (that is entirely infiltrated by Taliban) will fall apart, and the United States government will be faced with the question of whether or not they want to ramp up bombing in Afghanistan again (sound familiar?).
  7. Some Talibani soldier will execute a former Kabul government loyalist and will publish their video on the Internet. People will justifiably be outraged by the cruelty of such an act. There will be calls by the press for the “international community” to do something. Women are also highly likely to be oppressed in some form or another. Despite the utterly disastrous and counterproductive occupation of Afghanistan, it is a credit to the United States’ effort that the situation for women in the country has been much improved. This will not last and unfortunately, this situation creates a lot of potential danger for women in the absence of American imperial protection.
  8. The Taliban will take over a portion of the country – likely in the largely Pashtun areas surrounding Kandahar. They will focus their efforts on remote outposts and will start to take command of former American outposts and military weaponry (just like they did with Soviet weaponry). The ANA and/or ANP in that area will completely fold – they will either run away or surrender (sound familiar?).
  9. The Taliban, although presently weakened, will eventually start to gain momentum in the country. They will also garner support from foreign fighters who will flood the country. At this point the neo-conservative and neo-liberal war maniacs in D.C. will start to bang the drums for more American intervention in the region (sound familiar?). Eventually the president, whoever it is at the time, will concede. An increased bombing campaign will be authorized and the president will claim that it’s a limited action in that no “boots are on the ground.” This of course means no conventional active duty soldiers. The Special Forces and paramilitary types will have never left but they will be ill-equipped to fight the larger Taliban on their own. The war authorization will not be debated and the new war will not be declared. The president will act unilaterally using either the War Powers Resolution or a United Nations declaration and international consensus (which has no legal relevance) to lawfully protect him or herself. Congress will ignore the situation (being conveniently relieved of their responsibility to commit to a “yea” or “nay” vote and thus subject themselves to public scrutiny). Moral authority for such action will remain vague and most people will refuse to take any responsibility for their individual actions.
  10. Soldiers will pretend they’re defending the Constitution or will be entirely ignorant to the fact that such a document holds zero legal authority with regards to war in the modern American government. As such they will do exactly as they are ordered or they will be sent to prison.
  11. The Supreme Court will ignore any cases brought before it. Any alleged standing in court will be dismissed as irrelevant under the “political question” doctrine.
  12. The increased war spending will be monetized as required by the Federal Reserve System.
  13. Most Americans will continue to vote for their local zombie. They will be entirely unsatisfied with the Congress but will support their district’s incumbent nonetheless – it is the other ones that are the problem after all. Those who care enough to speak out will largely continue to pay their taxes because the IRS backlash will be individually devastating if they try to withhold their finances from perpetual war. Feeding their children will understandably take precedence in their mind and the war machine will carry on.

The future does not look bright for the country with our departure……if one wants a good look at the future then look to Iraq.  But there is one saving grace….the US will have about 10,000 troops in the country……and just how is that a positive sign?

The last election showed the deep divisions in the country and the ideology……..those divisions can only get deeper and more violent with the departure of the only thing keeping the country together…….the good old U S of A…..

Look for the Northern Alliance to walk away from the power sharing deal the US helped broker……in case you are not sure who the NA is let me assist…..they are the ones that did the most to defeat the Russians….they are the ones that fought the Taleban…..they are the ones that helped the US when we invaded in 2001…..in short they are the only people in Afghanistan that we can trust…..they will be waiting for Ghani to screw up and they will rise in revolt.

America’s grand experiment of democracy will most likely break down as one warlord against another and the Taleban as the thief in the woodpile…..waiting for the best moment to strike.  Afghanistan will return to the days of yore….the days of constant fighting and destruction and democracy will be the final victim of this American experiment.

The Us has signed a deal for Afghanistan……….

Afghanistan and the United States signed a long-awaited security pact today that will allow US forces to remain in the country past the end of the year. At a ceremony held at the presidential palace in Kabul, newly appointed national security adviser Mohammad Hanif Atmar signed the document along with US Ambassador James Cunningham. The deal will allow about 10,000 American troops to stay in the country after the international combat mission ends Dec. 31. Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai had refused to sign it despite US threats of a full withdrawal in the absence of legal protections for American forces. US officials have said that the delay in the deal’s signing does not affect plans for next year.

A second agreement allowing NATO troops to stay in the country was also signed between Afghanistan and NATO during the same ceremony. President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, who was sworn into office a day earlier, told the assembled crowd that the agreement signaled a fundamental shift in the country’s relations with the world. “This agreement is only for Afghan security and stability,” he said. “These agreements are in our national interest. The Bilateral Security Agreement will pave the ground for Afghanistan to take control.” Government Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah also welcomed the agreement as beneficial to the country. “It has been signed after very careful considerations,” he said, adding that “the BSA is not a threat to our neighbors. It will help strengthen peace and stability in the region.”

Let’s be honest….Afghanistan signed this deal as a way for the government to hold onto power….they will use the presence of troops to control the situation…….the Afghan army is no better prepared to help the country as the Iraqi army was……

In short even with the departure of the bulk of American forces….this war is far from over.