Tag: Horn of Africa

Ethiopia–A Rising Star?

During the Cold War the East African nation of Ethiopia was on the front lines in our struggle with the USSR….it was a perfect region for the gathering of Sigint…..but has been happening since the end of the Cold War?

Unique among African countries, the ancient Ethiopian monarchy maintained its freedom from colonial rule with the exception of a short-lived Italian occupation from 1936-41. In 1974, a military junta, the Derg, deposed Emperor Haile SELASSIE (who had ruled since 1930) and established a socialist state. Torn by bloody coups, uprisings, wide-scale drought, and massive refugee problems, the regime was finally toppled in 1991 by a coalition of rebel forces, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front. A constitution was adopted in 1994, and Ethiopia’s first multiparty elections were held in 1995. A border war with Eritrea in the late 1990s ended with a peace treaty in December 2000. In November 2007, the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission (EEBC) issued specific coordinates as virtually demarcating the border and pronounced its work finished. Alleging that the EEBC acted beyond its mandate in issuing the coordinates, Ethiopia has not accepted them and has not withdrawn troops from previously contested areas pronounced by the EEBC as belonging to Eritrea. In August 2012, longtime leader Prime Minister MELES Zenawi died in office and was replaced by his Deputy Prime Minister HAILEMARIAM Desalegn, marking the first peaceful transition of power in decades.

Ethiopia is a cog in our responses on the Horn of Africa….plus the renegade nation of Somalia is next door and from time to time has bucked the influence of Ethiopia in the region…..but their “friendship” with the US these days helps their star to rise in the Horn…..

When we think of countries competing for power and influence in the Horn of Africa, a short list of candidates comes to mind: the U.S., Iran, China, Russia, Turkey and various European powers. Notably absent from this list are countries from within the region itself. But this may be about to change. Ethiopia has recently launched a number of political, economic and foreign policy reforms aimed at redefining the country internally and externally. These moves are a sign that Addis Ababa wants to increase its influence in the region and might be laying the groundwork to emerge as a regional power.

Ethiopia is uniquely positioned to take on this role. It has a history of resisting foreign intervention and remaining, for the most part, free of external domination in a region that was widely colonized by European powers. Now, as the presence of foreign powers grows, Ethiopia will need to become more assertive if it wants to compete for influence with these outside forces. But it has a number of challenges with which it must contend if it is to project power beyond its borders. This Deep Dive will examine the country’s history that has led it to this unique point in time and the conditions it must meet before it will be able to wield more influence in the region.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/ethiopia-regional-power-making/

Djibouti (The “D” Is Silent)

Before I go into more detail about this post….my reader needs to get up to speed on the country known as Djibouti……

The French Territory of the Afars and the Issas became Djibouti in 1977. Hassan Gouled APTIDON installed an authoritarian one-party state and proceeded to serve as president until 1999. Unrest among the Afar minority during the 1990s led to a civil war that ended in 2001 with a peace accord between Afar rebels and the Somali Issa-dominated government. In 1999, Djibouti’s first multiparty presidential election resulted in the election of Ismail Omar GUELLEH as president; he was reelected to a second term in 2005 and extended his tenure in office via a constitutional amendment, which allowed him to serve a third term in 2011 and begin a fourth term in 2016. Djibouti occupies a strategic geographic location at the intersection of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and serves as an important shipping portal for goods entering and leaving the east African highlands and transshipments between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. The government holds longstanding ties to France, which maintains a significant military presence in the country, and has strong ties with the US. Djibouti hosts several thousand members of US armed services at US-run Camp Lemonnier.

I give my reader this geography lesson because of the situation in Djibouti……it is home to more foreign military units than any other place in the world…..

The US has a single full-scale military base in all of Africa: It’s in Djibouti, and we have more than a few neighbors there. Politico takes a look at the small country in the Horn of Africa (it’s the size of New Hampshire) and the continually expanding military presence there. It hosts more foreign bases than anywhere else in world, a fact Politico attributes to its strategic location at the mouth of the Red Sea, where it sees “a large percentage of the trade and energy flows between Europe and Asia.” France set up shop there first; Italy and Britain have a presence, per the New York Times; China and Japan have but one foreign base each, and it’s there. Saudi Arabia is coming, and there are whispers that Turkey, Russia, and India could, too. If we get to that point, Bruno Maçães writes that every big global power will have a presence there, and that raises some big questions for him.

Here’s one: What happens if two major players—say, China and India—go to war, and just happen to have bases near one another? Here’s another: Would a country ever decide to avoid full-scale war but launch an attack on a rival’s Djibouti base? As a member of Djibouti’s intelligence service tells Maçães, “World War III will start here.” Quartz also floats the idea that the situation could imperil Djibouti itself. It has increasingly welcomed foreign militaries under current President Ismael Omar Guelleh, who flung open the country’s doors post-9/11 in exchange for hefty fees (the US pays $63 million a year). But the head of a think tank that’s focused on the region warns that “the Horn of Africa and the Middle East are currently rough neighborhoods, and Djibouti may find itself making enemies, not through any action of its own, but as a consequence of the actions of its military guests.”

I have written about the expanding military in Djibouti before……

https://lobotero.com/2016/08/29/chinese-presence-in-africa-shows-global-ambition/

You have been warning that I am an opinionated SOB……nothing has changed.