Ukraine–Time For A Change

First I would like to pose the same question I have asked many times and of yet there is no answer forthcoming.

What does the US expect as a return on our investment in Ukraine?

Now for the meat of this post….

The US keeps throwing money at the conflict in Ukraine and I feel we have done more than enough….it is time for someone to take the lead on the Ukraine conflict.

Just this week the announcement was made that another $400 million aid package is being put together…..

The Biden administration on Friday announced a new $400 million weapons package for Ukraine that includes ammunition for the HIMARS rocket systems, artillery rounds, and 25mm ammunition for Bradley Fighting Vehicles.

The package is being provided through the presidential drawdown authority, which allows President Biden to arm Ukraine with weapons and ammunition sitting in US military stockpiles. The new equipment comes as the US is helping Ukraine prepare for a potential counteroffensive against Russian forces.


Since the ‘threat’ from Russia is more a European problem then I think they should take the lead.

Instead of a quick Russian victory, Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine seems to be settling into a drawn-out slugfest. After Ukrainian soldiers surprisingly thwarted Russia’s offensive on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital city, the gleeful United States rallied NATO nations to provide the Ukrainians with tens of billions in weapons technology.

After some Ukrainian battlefield successes in throwing back the Russians in the east and south of Ukraine, which gained back some Russian-occupied territory, the United States and its allies gradually succumbed to the vision of decisively handing the Russian Bear with a stinging military defeat.

Yet, Russia still has some advantages. By essentially invading Crimea and parts of industrialized eastern Ukraine in 2014 and combining this conquered territory with that of its initial gains in the east and south in the 2022 invasion, the Russians have given the Ukrainians a Herculean task to recapture such a large land area against a more significant and sometimes well-dug-in occupying force

Unless the reported low morale of the Russian force causes it to suddenly collapse—as German troops did in 1918 during World War I—the war likely will turn into a long, bloody slog.

Although the West has emotionally rallied to Ukraine’s colors against a more formidable aggressor by providing tens of billions in military, economic and humanitarian aid, the United States now must make a hard-nosed analysis of whether its security requires a clear-cut Ukrainian victory, whether that’s even a realistic possibility, and if not, what a settlement of lands between the two countries would look like to create the best chance for a peaceful solution to the conflict that would endure.

For me this idea makes a lot of sense….but since the defense industry is rolling in cash it will not be a workable plan for our Congress is wholly owned by the Defense industry.

Lastly let me ask the question again….

What return does the US expect for our massive investment in Ukraine?

Any thoughts or answers?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

26 thoughts on “Ukraine–Time For A Change

  1. The western countries helping Ukraine simply want to see Putin removed, and a Russia that is more like the one under Gorbachev. They also want to cancel the myth of Russia as a formidable military power in the world by overseeing its potential defeat in Ukraine. How much that costs is immaterial to the leaders of those countries, as their friends in industry and big business will continue to profit.
    Last but not least, they want to send a message to China. How that turns out remains to be seen.
    Best wishes, Pete.

      1. My guess is that the allies are making sure they do not get enough arms for an outright win. (Hence no new warplanes as yet) It is much more profitable to keep the war dragging on, and hope that Putin will be ousted in the meantime.

      2. That is what they hope….but sanctions are not working so I do not see where his opposition would come from…..chuq

  2. I think the goal is to keep Russia from continuing a move against other countries…your point about European countries is a far one, and a settlement would indeed be best, but unless we continue to lead the way, the way may be lost and I fear the next steps would be far worse…

    1. Any dire predictions are basically about Europe….I do not think Russia has enough umpf to take on the US…..I think most of that is just spreading fear which means M-IC gets more and more. chuq

  3. Stopping Russian (Putin’s) attempt(s) to resurrect the old Soviet Empire by forging NATO into a unified adversary to counter such ambitions in Europe. The fall of the Soviet Union allowed the independence of a number of former Soviet “conquests” to establish themselves as new (and sometimes struggling) democracies. From my limited perspective, the fall of the Communist Soviet Empire was not an overly welcome event for a hefty faction of the Russian population used to a strong authoritarian and controlled socialist State. Even today.. a large segment of “baby boomer” aged Russians do feel a loss of patriotic pride at the breakup, hence they lean toward what is going on with Putin trying to “make Russia great again”. One might assign Putin as their “Trump” (which seems to be popular for many world leaders to emulate).

    Making sure Europe is safe from Russian aggression is vital to our own security and that of the world. I realize you harbor a preference for a bit of American isolation from Europe (ala pre-WW2 concept) to let them save themselves to save our own tax dollars, but a politically and economically destabilized Europe will affect the world… and ultimately affect our tax dollars. This conflict, and our role in it, will strengthen NATO even more… which I understand you have little fondness for, but is a reality, at least for now. Our influence in that way also strengthens our role as a world power. Certainly a re-build of Ukraine in their post-conflict will engage American business.

    I’m ok with all that being our only return on the “investment” to be in there now. We should keep in mind, the M-IC is made up of American labor and technology, and we can blame them for making a profit on implements that kill people… but it is part of our economy. On another side of this… if it’s our resources and tech being used.. then we do have a control of how it’s us and spare parts.

    1. I hear that a lot….and I still do not think that Putin has global designs….besides if he cannot take Ukraine what makes anyone think he can take Western Europe….and should they not be responsible for their own security if it all true?

      I still believe that the cash that few give a shit about until it is spent on the needy needs to remain where it is paid…in the US. chuq

      1. I would agree.. Putin doesn’t have global designs at all. But he does have an itch to reclaim what the Soviet Empire once was as a source of power and pride in the traditional Asian/East European mindset that power over others means domination and oppression… “and let’s thump our chests when we have it” kinda thing.
        Now.. what has revealed itself to the world is what you just stated… Putin can’t take Ukraine. But if you recall at the outset of the invasion there was a general consensus that the Russian military will just walk right over Ukraine. At that point in time the fear of Russian aggression in Eastern Europe was at its height. We now know the Russian military in the field is a strategic paper tiger and in truly typical Russian fashion they fight battles with manpower, and huge expenditures of it, in the past as well as now. Pretty much they just blow the crap out of anything they see in some fight of attrition. There’s very little “strategic” or “surgical” regarding anything with them. They “love” to fight WW1 or WW2 style.. at the expense of their own manpower. So that in itself becomes something to fear from any of their incompetent leaders be it Putin or anyone else. They may not win but they will create a lot of rubble trying. And we haven’t even gotten to discussing the risk from nukes being in their arsenal, battlefield or strategic. Those clowns have little care about prevailing winds if they drop one next door.

      2. See I do not think that a true military person would even consider the use of nukes….a threat maybe but actual use….no way. With the amount nof advanced weapons and the ‘poor’ quality of the Russians this should have been over already. The US may not be fighting but we are cheer leading from the shadows and Ukrainians are paying the price and the best we can say is Putin is a prick. We are wasting money…..but that is what we do. chuq

      3. A true military person would indeed have second thoughts about using a nuke. But in this case (as with many authoritarian leaders) Putin is not military person… ex-KGB… and he’s pretty much an unpredictable whack job.. maybe because of his age.
        But if we explore this a bit… is the real threat of him using something nuclear locally to him… or is the threat of what our response will do to escalate it even worse? Is the threat really of a tit-for-tat.. you use it once and we have to use it the same way against you? Is that in fact the deterrence? Or is the threat regarding how soon after he might use one that we feel we have to respond?
        Say he nukes Kyiv… or even a lesser city. Does the fear then shift to becoming.. the how and where we might respond? How long do we let the world simmer on that? Do we wait, and allow public outcry and maybe Russian military to take action to oust Putin on their own? The original deterrent to using a nuke is that we would retaliate accordingly… but would we have to? If Russia takes out Kviv with a nuke… and the result is the Russian military removes Putin thus ending the war… do we then need to further escalate with a retaliation? How long do we wait for that to happen?
        A lot of interesting moral questions here to consider rather than just a knee-jerk impulse reaction.

      4. Those decisions are way above my pay grade….this ‘what if’ will depend who sits in the White House for it is that decision that will rule….and it will depend on the narrative that the people get daily….chuq

      1. I respect where you are coming from, old buddy. Always will. But, war is part of human existence so always better to be prepared for it. One reason reason we all own guns.

      2. I do not think that it needs to be part of the social fabric….it is a learned trait and the US has schooled its peons well chuq

  4. What we expect for our massive investment in Ukraine is more a hope than an expectation … it is the hope that all the allies together with us can somehow stop the Russian aggression –because if we cannot, then the Russian aggression will certainly find a way to threaten all the rest of us., I just the world would stop pussyfooting around with this mess and go ahead and just swat the big fly once and for all time regardless of what damage we might have to suffer in the effort..

    1. Our investment is like Apple…we invest our cash in their phones and the return is a new color. Russia is not threatening anything and besides if the reports are true on their military then we have little to worry about…..chuq

      1. Wrong! Russia is always threatening to use its nuclear weapons they are lying about the size, scope, and abilities of their military as a military defense so that their enemies can not realize the amount of devastation Russia could unleash at any given time. That kind of psychology is very effective …Oh, they are not so tough, we can take them down ..: That is what they want the world to believe. They are experts as psyops if nothing else. If they were to commit the full force of their army, navy, airforce, etc., they could obliterate Ukraine in 24 hours. I do not know why they have refused to go full bore.

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