Inkwell Institute

East Africa Desk

I am sure that most action loving movie goers have see “Black Hawk Down”…..the story of a disastrous operation in Somalia in 1993 in the battle of Mogadishu…….many American troops were killed and as a result we soon decided that Somalia was a hopeless cause battling the war lord militants……

But even though the main body of US troops departed there has been a small but active team of American special forces operating in the country.  The objective is the destruction of Al Shabaab, Islamist extremists….now after about 20 years the US has successfully taken out the key figure in Al Shabaab……….the world learned that a US missile strike in southern Somalia on Monday had targeted Ahmed Godane, the leader of Al Shabaab, a terrorist with a $7 million bounty on his head.

The US is immediately began the back slapping…..why?  Analysts predict that if Godane has been killed, the group that he has led since 2008 will splinter. Over the last three years Godane has tightened his grip on the organization, ousting, alienating, or killing internal critics and rivals. Godane’s unassailable position gave Al Shabaab a certain ruthless direction but leaves it no clear successor.

So we have given Al Shabaab a lethal attack?  CIA analysts want you to believe that this will no longer be a threat in East Africa……as usual those guys have NO idea what is going on in the world…….

(Newser) – Somalian Islamic extremist rebels al-Shabab named Abu Ubeid Ahmed Omar to be their new leader following the killing of the previous leader by a US airstrike, said a commander of the group. The Somali militants unanimously selected Omar today at a meeting in an undisclosed location in Somalia, said rebel commander Abu Mohammed. Omar is believed to be an assumed name, and the new leader’s real name is not known. The Somali group had to appoint a new leader following the death of Ahmed Abdi Godane, the group’s spiritual leader who was killed by an airstrike on Monday.

My first reaction to the news was….are you guys high?  You just painted a target on the dude’s ass.

My second reaction is………..Once again the CIA has proven, at least to me, that they have NO clue what is happening in East Africa……….what about all their other “actionable” intel?

Time for new thinking in DC and international relations……..our people now are clueless.  Time after time these people have blown the analysis of a situation…….why do we continue to trust a group that has continuously been proven to be wrong and ill informed?