Tag: Caucasus

All Quiet On The Eastern Front

Several years ago I was writing a white paper about the Caucasus region of Eastern Europe…..I was working a a linch pin point that could possibly start another major world war……

When I was in university I studied international relations especially war and conflict management…..and since my interests in war and its causes I have always looked for that linchpin that could cause the world to explode in an all out war …..a war to end all wars……

A couple of years ago I wrote a synopsis of a paper that I was working on about the linchpin theory….in my theory the South Caucuses would be the most likely region that could start this war of all wars……read for yourself…..

Source: Does War loom in the South Caucasus? – In Saner Thought

The Caucasus region is a relatively compact area centered on the Caucasus Mountains. The foothills to the north and some of the steppe connected to them form a northern border, while the southern border can be defined by the extent of the Armenian plateau. The Black Sea in the west and the Caspian Sea in the east form natural boundaries in those directions. It is a territory of immense ethnic, linguistic, and national diversity, and it is currently spread over the territory of four sovereign nations.

The region, formerly contained within the boundaries of the Soviet Union, is in the early twenty-first century spread over four nations: the Russian Federation to the north; and the three republics of the South Caucasus, also known as Transcaucasia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The Russian part of this area is divided into several ethnic jurisdictions: Adygea, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya, and Dagestan.

I bring all this up now is because the fighting and the violence in the Caucasus region is hit a low point….there are still lots of animosities there but the violence is down…..because of one reason……

Russia’s North Caucasus insurgency has gone relatively quiet, as Moscow crushed militants and many left to fight in Syria and Iraq. But longstanding grievances remain and the war may only have widened, as evidenced by the bombing of a Russian airliner in Egypt and the emergence of new groups swearing allegiance to the Islamic State in Russia itself.

Source: The North Caucasus Insurgency and Syria: An Exported Jihad? – International Crisis Group

Is war imminent in the Caucasus?

RIP David Bowie…thanx for the memories……

Before I get some no brain wordsmith pointing out that AJE has tried to take down Manning….let me say here and now…I could care less what happens to some millionaire ball player….move on!

A few years back I was looking at the world searching for could become a linch pin situation (a seemingly insignificant event that turns into a major situation that could involve the world…aka World War 1)…..in case you do not read IST regularly let me refresh you understanding….

Source: Looking For The Linchpin | In Saner Thought

For years Armenia and Azerbaijan have been at each other throats….and a shaky ceasefire….but that seems to be breaking down even further……

Armenia says a ceasefire with neighbouring Azerbaijan over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh no longer exists, describing frequent skirmishes at the front line as “war”.

Artsrun Hovhannisyan, a spokesman of Armenia’s defence ministry, said on Tuesday that Azerbaijan was using “all existing armaments: tanks, howitzers, and anti-aircraft artillery” against Armenian soldiers in the disputed region.

“What we have today is a war,” said Hovhannisyan. “We must use the word ‘war’ as there is no ceasefire anymore.”

Azerbaijan responded with counter-accusations, blaming Armenia for the recent escalation.

“Ceasefire violations are taking place because of the illegal presence of Armenian forces in the occupied lands of Azerbaijan,” Hikmat Hajiyevm, Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry spokesman, told the AFP news agency.

“Armenia has to withdraw from the seized lands … only afterwards the sustainable peace can be guaranteed in the region.”

While the world is fixated on other regions this one could prove to be a bitch to sort out.

Beyond the headlines of war in Syria and Ukraine, a surge in fighting in the South Caucasus has renewed fear of war.

Source: Is war imminent in the Caucasus? – Al Jazeera English

A question few ask and an area that even fewer watch…..so ask….who will Armenia turn to for help when the time comes?  Not NATO for Turkey is a NATO ally and events a century ago will keep NATO out…..how about Azerbaijan?  They would most likely turn to Russia for help…..

This is not going to be very pretty if it continues to escalate……and then the world will notice and everyone will have an opinion.

Carpetbaggers Return

With the tragic attacks in Paris and the subsequent actions that followed and the refugee crisis have taken any mention of Ukraine and the situation brewing in that country off the front page…..apparently it is not newsworthy at this time….

But since I am a person that likes international situations I watch it for problems brewing…..and I believe there is a issue that could be a major block to any advancement of Ukraine….think “carpetbaggers”.

Who?

Carpetbaggers……. epithet used in the South after the Civil War to describe Northerners who went to the South during Reconstruction to make money. Although regarded as transients because of the carpetbags in which they carried their possessions (hence the name carpetbaggers ), most intended to settle in the South and take advantage of speculative and commercial opportunities there. With the support of the black vote the carpetbaggers played an important role in the Republican state governments. The corrupt activities of some made the term carpetbagger synonymous with any outsider who meddles in an area’s political affairs for his own benefit.

This time it is not say North versus South…..but rather an internal issue that has “crony capitalism” written all over it.

Source: Carpetbagging ‘Crony Capitalism’ in Ukraine | Consortiumnews

Does War loom in the South Caucasus?

When I was in university I studied international relations especially war and conflict management…..and since my interests in war and its causes I have always looked for that linchpin that could cause the world to explode in an all out war …..a war to end all wars……

A couple of years ago I wrote a synopsis of a paper that I was working on about the linchpin theory….in my theory the South Caucuses would be the most likely region that could start this war of all wars……read for yourself…..

http://lobotero.com/2013/06/13/looking-for-the-linchpin/

It appears that all my hard work has paid off…….there are growing tensions in the very region that I was writing about

A recent upsurge in fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh serves Russian interests and shows the dangers of war by accident.

Source: War looms in the South Caucasus – Al Jazeera English

This region should be watched closely….take our eyes off the prize and it could be very catastrophic…..

Ukraine’s ‘Democratic’ Dictatorship by Justin Raimondo — Antiwar.com

Ukraine has sort slipped from the headlines….you see we Americans can only handle one or two “big” stories at a time….and right now Trump and refugees are commanding all the attention.

For months some have been saying that the US is propping up a mostly fascist regime in Ukraine….of course that is not the story the government, ours, wants to be out there…..so they turn to the media to give Americans some red meat to divert our attention from what is occurring in the region.

The problem is that these stories keep popping up and at the worst times….Ukraine is moving away from even the hint of a democratic regime……and the US just smiles and keeps shoving aid and weapons up there butts to keep Russia off guard…..

Source: Ukraine’s ‘Democratic’ Dictatorship by Justin Raimondo — Antiwar.com

ISIS Declares Governorate in Russia’s North Caucasus Region | Institute for the Study of War

Remember about 10 years ago when Russia was having a helluva time with the rebels in Chechnya?  It seems these Muslims from the Caucus region of  Southern Europe want their independence and have spent much time blowing things up and being a pain in Russia’s ass…….but for a couple of years now the region has been quiet and calm……of course there is still a simmering hatred but that could soon change thanx to ISIS……….

It seems the ISIS has injected itself into the region and things are about to get a bit more troublesome for Russia and in the end….the rest of the world.

An analysis from the Institute for the Study of War has broken down the problems and the situation quite nicely……….

This may not interest most Americans but it needs to be watched…….eventually it will involve the US and its NATO cover…….

 

ISIS Declares Governorate in Russia’s North Caucasus Region | Institute for the Study of War.

Circassian Genocide: 150 years later

Yep another of Chuq’s famous history lessons……

Everyone has heard about the Holocaust where the Nazis tried to kill off the Jewish population, a genocide….there have been others throughout modern history as well….like the Armenian genocide committed by the Ottomans in the early 1900’s…

But have you ever heard of the Circassians?

Now you have…….learn something before the weekend so that your week has not been a total bust!

 

Circassian Genocide: 150 years later | Caucasus | Worldbulletin News.