It is Summer in the Deep South, 91 at 5am, and speaking of heating up.

The Gaza War is slowing down….deaths and hunger is still the major costs but will Israel be satisfied with a ‘win’ in Gaza? (There is no winning this conflict just a termination of actions).

Will Israel turn eyes North to Lebanon?

They probably will for they are already bombing the border regions as I type….but will it expand?

Well if BiBi can be trusted (hysterical laughter) and we take him at his word (which would be a mistake)….

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that the current phase of fighting against Hamas in Gaza is winding down, setting the stage for Israel to send more troops to its northern border to confront the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, the AP reports. The comments threatened to further heighten the tensions between Israel and Hezbollah at a time when they appear to be moving closer to war. Netanyahu also signaled that there is no end in sight for the grinding war in Gaza. The Israeli leader said in a lengthy TV interview that while the army is close to completing its current ground offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, that would not mean the war against Hamas is over. But he said fewer troops would be needed in Gaza, freeing up forces to battle Hezbollah.

“We will have the possibility of transferring some of our forces north, and we will do that,” he told Israel’s Channel 14, a pro-Netanyahu TV channel, in an interview that was frequently interrupted by applause from the studio audience. “First and foremost, for defense,” he added, but also to allow tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to return home. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah began striking Israel almost immediately after Hamas’ Oct. 7 cross-border attack that triggered the Gaza war. Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging fire nearly every day since then, but the fighting has escalated in recent weeks, raising fears of a full-blown war.

The top US military officer warned on Sunday that any Israeli military offensive into Lebanon would risk an Iranian response in defense of Hezbollah, which is much stronger than Hamas, possibly triggering a larger, region-wide war involving other Iranian proxies and perhaps Iran itself that could put US forces in the region in danger and cause heavy damage and mass casualties on both sides of the border. Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iran “would be more inclined to support Hezbollah.” He added that Tehran supports Hamas militants in Gaza, but would give greater backing to Hezbollah “particularly if they felt that Hezbollah was being significantly threatened,” the AP reports.

But will the US have the stomach for more war in the Middle East….of course it will….

Deputy assistant to the US president Amos Hochstein has signaled that Washington would get behind an Israeli incursion into Lebanon, reportedly telling Beirut’s PM that Tel Aviv intends to shift focus to Hezbollah after fighting in Gaza winds down.

As reported by the Middle East Eye, citing an unnamed senior Arab official, this message was conveyed during talks with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and parliament speaker Nabih Berri on Tuesday. Hochstein bluntly warned that the US plans to support an Israeli attack should the two sides fail to deescalate tensions.

…

Hochstein also stated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would shift “full focus” to Israel’s northern border following the Gaza pause, with the goal of pushing the Hezbollah away from Israeli soil. Such an escalation would almost certainly undermine future peace talks.

Israel and Hezbollah have traded tit-for-tat strikes around the border region on a near-daily basis since the war with Hamas broke out last October, with IDF raids pushing deeper into Lebanese territory in recent weeks. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced on both sides of the border due to the ongoing fighting.

While Hochstein traveled to Lebanon in a bid to quell the hostilities with Israel, Tel Aviv has all but confirmed that it intends to go ahead with an attack regardless. On Tuesday, the IDF announced that it had approved “operational plans” for a larger offensive in Lebanon, but shared few other details.

During a speech on Wednesday, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah issued a stark warning against an Israeli offensive, saying the move would trigger a war “without rules or ceilings.”

(antiwar.com)

It is not like Israel has not invaded Lebanon before and with disastrous results.

Is the invasion of Lebanon a logical step?

Many in Israel share the US’s apprehension, accusing the prime minister of perpetuating the Gaza war to stay in power and out of jail (he faces domestic criminal charges in addition to the ICC). Invading Lebanon would be a logical next step in this mad progression.

Let’s say Israel goes full tilt North….what will be next….Syria?

I am sorry but the slug BiBi is making the likelihood of a wider war possible….and the US is just stand by and feeding the angry beast.

What will the US do?

As usual a strongly worded letter…..

The Biden administration is concerned that the violence on the Israel-Lebanon border could soon escalate into a full-blown war and that Israel is rushing into the conflict without a clear strategy, Axios reported on Wednesday.

US officials told Axios that the administration has cautioned Israel against the idea of a “limited war,” warning that Iran could intervene and militants in Iraq and Syria could join the fighting.

Can the US prevent a wider war?

Nope….why?

During a trip to the Middle East last week, President Biden’s deputy Amos Hochstein told Lebanese leaders that Washington would be unable to constrain Tel Aviv. According to Axios, Hochstein warned, “The US won’t be able to hold Israel back if the situation on the border continues to escalate and that Hezbollah needs to indirectly negotiate with Israel instead of ratcheting up tensions.”

If the US is powerless then why bother with the Middle East at all?

Talk about looking weak to the world.

The report said the White House believes a ceasefire in Gaza is the only thing that could reduce tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border. However, Israeli officials have previously threatened to escalate in Lebanon if a truce is reached in Gaza.

This will not end well….it is just a feeling I have.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”