The news is pathetic these days….so how about a ‘what if’ thingy?

Russia has once again return to the airways thanks in part to Carlson and his silly interview with Putin.

The Senate just approved more cash for Ukraine, as if we have not given enough, but here is an idea….what if after all the aid money Russia still wins the conflict with Ukraine….what then?

Recently a secret German document was leaked which sets out the scenario….

A confidential document drawn up by the German Ministry of Defense (MoD) envisions how a possible escalation of the war in Ukraine could potentially develop. The hypothetical development involves Russia and NATO each gradually increasing troop build-up in eastern Europe until hundreds of thousands of troops face off against each other at the Suwałki Gap in June 2025—and leaves the outcome of the confrontation open.

Berlin’s exercise scenario, according to the German daily Bild, heavily relies on a set of assumptions that would all need to occur before further escalation, but each component of the chain of events is presented as the next logical step.

The scenario, titled “Alliance Defense 2025,” starts with Russia beginning a new wave of mobilizations by calling up an additional 200,000 recruits in February 2024, who then manage to weaken the Ukrainian positions along the line of contact in the next spring offensive.

In July 2024, Russia would then begin covert cyber-attacks and other forms of hybrid warfare on the West and East Central Europe in particular, while inciting Russian-speaking minorities in Baltic countries. The political crisis in the Baltics would eventually be used to justify a massive military exercise (similar to the one in 2021), called ‘Zapad 2024’ in September, involving at least 50,000 Russian troops in Belarus and western Russia.

Leaked German Defense Document Sketches out Russian War Scenario

After the German document was leaked Estonia had to make a case for more cash…..

“Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation,” the head of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned Tuesday. Kaupo Rosin said Russia plans to double the number of troops it has stationed near its borders with NATO members in northern Europe, and the “Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so,” reports Reuters. The intelligence service predicted that Russia will double the 19,000 troops it has stationed near its border with Estonia and expand the number of troops on its 830-mile border with Finland, NATO’s newest member, USA Today reports

“We will see an increase in armed personnel carriers, tanks, artillery systems over the coming years,” said Rosin, who called for a counter-buildup of NATO forces. Estonia and the two other Baltic states, Latvia and Lithuania, boosted their defense spending to more than 2% of GDP, in line with NATO guidelines, after Russia annexed Crimea almost a decade ago, Reuters notes. Asked about Donald Trump’s remark that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to alliance members that don’t spend enough on defense, Rosin said, “Such statements are never helpful.”

Estonia’s prime minister has been placed on a wanted list by Russia’s Interior Ministry, becoming the first leader on a list that includes dozens of officials from the Baltic states and Poland, the AP reports. Russian officials said Kaja Kallas was added to the list because of efforts to remove Soviet-era WWII monuments in Estonia. She slammed the move as a “scare tactic. ” Russia may believe that issuing a fictitious arrest warrant will silence Estonia,” Kallas said. “I refuse to be silenced–I will continue to vocally support Ukraine and advocate for the strengthening of European defenses.”

Let’s say Putin does do the silly and move on Western Europe….

a win for Russia against Ukraine would ‘undoubtedly’ result in the fall of NATO, ‘economic carnage’ for the West as well as the rise of foes including China, Iran and North Korea, retired US General Ben Hodges tells MailOnline.

At the crux of this is the fact that Russia and the Global South would see a Ukrainian defeat as a military loss for the West – it would show the world that NATO, led by the US, is capable of sacrificing a European nation in order to avoid a nuclear conflict.

And once autocrats realise that the US and the West are beatable, a nuclear war would be ‘inevitable’ and the world would be consumed in bloodshed, Danylyuk says in a terrifying prediction. 

Indeed, Danylyuk says the world will have been watching as Ukraine, which gave up the world’s third-largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in 1993, was defeated by Russia’s military amid daily threats of Moscow incinerating the country with nukes. 

And that would send a strong message: The only way for non-nuclear states to protect themselves against an attack by countries with nukes – like China and Russia – would be to have weapons of mass destruction of their own.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12992481/What-happens-Putin-WINS-Ukraine-Catastrophic-change-world-order-lead-fall-NATO-economic-carnage-inevitable-nuclear-war-autocrats-West-beatable.html

I think Russia may have a cyber capability but I do not think his army is so capable…..then there is the nuke thing….I really do not think Putin would use them for prevailing winds would put the fall-out in his backyard.

But what do I know, right?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”