Inkwell Institute

Middle East Desk

Today is my B/Day…..feels like I am going on about 150……I will take a rest today and enjoy myself……I will be back in full force tomorrow…..

When Americans hear Middle East Policy they immediately think it is all about Israel and its conflict with the Palestinians…..while that is part of the region there is so much more than that single issue……so I asked the question, What is the US Middle East policy?  A simple question…..but you know there is NO one that has a simple answer…….the Middle East is a region not a single country that can have one and only one policy………the problem as I see it is the US cannot separate one conflict from the other…..why, you may ask Israel, is the simplest answer.  For some reason, and my guess would be some religious crap, we have to make Israel happy or our policies toward the region will fail.

I provide the above map to help my reader understand…..since about 70% of Americans could not name more than 2 or 3 countries that make up the region….a little assistance was needed…..

Let us llok at Middle East from the 80’s…….Lebanon is being torn apart by a civil war….Reagan sens in the Marines to help and their barracks was bombed and we took it on the lamb…….next was Reagan replacement Bush I and the first Gulf War against Iraq…..Iraq a country we supported as long as they were at war with Iran….Bush’s replacement was Clinton and his eye was taken off the Middle East while he waged war in the Balkans and while he was so engaged AQ was becoming a force in international terrorism……..and then came Bush II and the 9/11 attacks and the retaliation against Afghanistan and the attack on Iraq…..and his replacement Obama is now jumping into the Middle East war game in Syria……

What is the end game?

What is the hope of the US for the Middle East?

My analysis is….it appears to be a stepping stone tactic……similar to the end of WW2 and Eastern Europe……to what end is still debatable………is it to promote demo0cracy as some want to believe?  I say NO….it may be a side issue but democracy as Americans know it is not possible in the Middle East of today.

Why?

For one, there is NO experience with democracy….this has been a tribal civilization since time began……..Lebanon is about the only country with a democratic institution…..but it is divided along religious lines and not political lines……so the US cannot expect democracy to be up and bloom every time we think it is a good idea or we use it as an excuse to intervene….

There appears to be NO long term policy goal for the Middle East…..the US reacts to whatever situation arises.

The end game is a possible intervention in Iran……it will not be immediate…..a gradually escalating policy.  It has always been about getting Iran….one way or the other……just as Bush was always going to go after Saddam and Iraq……

Every Neocons desire……GET IRAN!