National Emergency Declaration–2019

I guess I need to address that damn 300 lb gorilla in the corner…..

Friday our Dudley-Do Right in the White House signed the CR to fund the government (photo not available) and issued his declaration that he promised to do…..the problem is in his usual bluster Trump may have turned and bit his own ass……

As expected, President Trump declared a national emergency on Friday over the US-Mexico border. A big legal fight looms, but first comes the initial reaction. First up: George Conway, husband of Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway, thinks the president made a big mistake by saying, “I didn’t need to do this” during his Rose Garden speech. “This quote should be the first sentence of the first paragraph of every complaint filed this afternoon,” he tweeted. Trump’s full quote: “I could do the wall over a longer period of time. I didn’t need to do this. But I’d rather do it much faster.” (Watch the clip here.) More reaction, to that quote and the declaration in general:

  • Agreed: At Hot Air, Allahpundit agrees with Conway. “We don’t need to get into why this is a damaging thing for him to admit, right? We all graduated from fourth grade.” Trump just handed the courts a factual basis to rule against him on the grounds that an emergency doesn’t actually exist, writes Allahpundit.
  • Not so fast: Philip Klein of the Washington Examiner writes that he’s skeptical the “I didn’t need to do this quote” is the bombshell people are suggesting it is. “In fact, it could even do the opposite— bc obvious counter is he wanted to do faster bc he thought it was a pressing emergency,” he tweets.
  • Democrats’ miscalculation? An analysis by Noah Feldman at Bloomberg suggests Democrats may have strengthened Trump’s case by agreeing to provide $1.4 billion for the border. That was far less that Trump wanted, prompting him to declare the emergency, but Feldman argues that by providing even the $1.4 billion, Trump can argue in court that Democrats agree with him the border needs strengthening and that “his re-allocation of funds is necessary to achieve Congress’s expressed will.”
  • The polls: Stats expert Nate Silvers thinks Trump is courting trouble in the polls. “Indeed, the act of declaring a national emergency to build a wall is even more unpopular than the wall itself—and the wall isn’t popular,” he writes at FiveThirtyEight. “Polls as tracked by PollingReport.com show an average of 32 percent of Americans in favor of the declaration and 65 percent opposed. Even in an era where many of Trump’s top priorities poll only in the low-to-mid-40s, that’s an especially large split, with roughly twice as many voters opposed as in favor.”
  • New York Times: An editorial says Trump has just taken “executive overreach to dizzying new heights.” Migrants at the border are not an emergency, say the editors. “This administration is forever coming up with creative new ways to disturb and dismay the nation. Mr. Trump’s eagerness to undermine the Constitution to serve his short-term political gain remains among the most outrageous.”
  • Wall Street Journal: The conservative editorial page is not on board with the move. “The emergency declaration will please his most ardent supporters, but Mr. Trump is setting an unfortunate precedent—and judges could tie up his wall in court for years.”
  • Washington Post: Its editorial on the subject is more angry at Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for going along with Trump as the president treats the Constitution with “cavalier contempt.” With his move, “Trump will inaugurate a new, imperial phase of his presidency,” the editors write. “Mr. McConnell, who had previously warned him against such an action, will show he has perfected a trick: roll over and play dead.”
  • Ann Coulter: Often seen as the voice of Trump’s conservative base, Coulter is not happy with the day’s news. Coulter backs tougher immigration moves, but she thinks Trump caved by signing the separate spending bill even though it didn’t have the money the president wanted. The “goal of a national emergency is for Trump to scam the stupidest people in his base for 2 more years,” she tweeted.  Coulter said that the only “national emergency is that our president is an idiot”  Is the far right support waning?

I shall give Trump some advice my mother would give me…”Make damn sure your brain is loaded before you fire off your mouth”……

His babbling is that of some mental midget that cannot get past some event that occurred….

I agree with an article that I read in the Daily Beast…..https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-immigration-emergency-raises-a-false-flag-and-demeans-the-constitution

While Trump was ranting and acting like a spoiled 4 year old a REAL national emergency was unfolding…..yet more gun violence…..we are getting close to the number of one a day with multiple victims……

Six people are dead and five officers are wounded after a shooting at a business in suburban Chicago, per the AP. The gunman, identified as 45-year-old Gary Martin, was among the dead at the Henry Pratt Co. building in Aurora. The Chicago Sun-Times talks to Martin’s mother, who says he was “way too stressed out” after being laid off recently. The officers who were wounded were fired upon as soon as they entered the building, police said. All are in stable condition.

John Probst, an employee at Henry Pratt, tells ABC7 that he ran out of the back door as the shooting unfolded Friday afternoon. Probst says he recognized the gunman. “What I saw was the guy running down the aisle with a pistol with a laser on it,” Probst says. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker commended the “amazing” work of law enforcement officers who responded to the scene, crediting them with saving “countless lives.” The company makes valves for industrial purposes; its location in Aurora is about 40 miles west of Chicago. (Read more mass shootings stories.)

The fence thingy is nothing more than a way to appease his low mental activity base……but there may be a problem there as well…..his main media advisers are Hannity, Coulter and Rush…..one has now decided his is an “idiot”…..

“Thank god he’s relieved me any responsibility for what he’s been doing,” Coulter told the radio hosts. “That was the biggest favor anyone could do for me today.” Declaring that “the country is over” now, she said she didn’t need a Tarot card reader to know that Trump would “totally f-over his base.”

The president’s “mandate,” Coulter said, was to build the wall. And even though that’s what he plans to do by declaring a national emergency, she’s not happy about it. “The only national emergency is that our president is an idiot,” she said.

Will the loss of Coulter’s support harm the president…..probably not for the “Bobble-heads” hang on every word Trump has to say so Coulter’s words will fall on def ears.

The “Border Crisis” is only in the mind (of the imagination) of a spoiled 6 year old with a constipation problem. 

I am thinking this “wall” is an ego trip like everything he does….something he can hang his name on….

Advertisements

DOJ: Don’t Do It!

Closing Thought–15Feb19

New CR is a deal and if Trump signs it he stated that he will also issue an emergency declaration….but DoJ does not think that is such a good Idea…..

President Trump says he will sign an emergency declaration to secure funding for a border wall—but he has been warned that the move is likely to encounter a wall of lawsuits from Democrats, immigration advocates, and environmentalists, among others. Sources tell ABC News that the Justice Department has told Trump that the declaration of a national emergency is extremely likely to be blocked by the courts before it can come into effect. Analysts say legal challenges could delay the project for years, though White House officials say they expect to eventually win on appeal. Trump is expected to declare the emergency Friday morning after signing a budget deal that would avert another government shutdown. More:

  • “There is no national emergency.” California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who is expected to challenge the move in court, said Thursday that any border crisis is of “Trump’s own making,” the Washington Post reports. “There is no national emergency. If Trump oversteps his authority and abandons negotiations with Congress by declaring a fabricated national emergency, we won’t only call his bluff, we will do what we must to hold him accountable,” he said. “No one is above the law.”

 

  • “No bets are safe.” Analysts say it would be very unusual for courts to block a president’s declaration of an emergency—but Trump is a very unusual president. “Normally, any other time, you’d say it’s a no-brainer that the president wins,” University of Texas law professor Bobby Chesney tells Politico. “But with this particular president, no bets are safe in assuming the courts will completely defer to him.” Some 58 emergencies have been declared since the National Emergencies Act, 31 of which are still in effect.
  • The price tag. Sources tell the AP that Trump will announce he will spend $8 billion on border barriers after sidestepping Congress—including the $1.4 billion the latest spending bill provides. Most of the rest is expected to come from military funds earmarked for construction and antidrug efforts.
  • Stopping the move in Congress. It is possible, but highly unlikely, for the move to be blocked by Congress, the BBC reports. It would require both houses of Congress to pass a resolution against it, which Trump could veto unless opponents can build a supermajority
  • Republicans speak out. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has done a U-turn and announced that he will support an emergency declaration, but several other Republican senators have spoken out against the move, the Hill reports. Sen. Susan Collins said Thursday that she believes the decision is of “dubious constitutionality.” “I don’t believe that the National Emergencies Act contemplated a president repurposing billions of dollars outside of the normal appropriations process,” she said.
  • “A Democratic president can declare emergencies as well.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the move a “lawless act” and warned Trump that he was creating a precedent that could lead to a Democratic president declaring a national emergency on guns, CNBC reports. “If the president can declare an emergency on something he has created as an emergency, an illusion that he wants to convey, just think about what a president with different values can present to the American people,” she said.
  • The Cruz solution. Sen. Ted Cruz says he has a way to build the wall without taxpayers paying a dime. The Republican writes in the Washington Post that he has reintroduced the “Ensuring Lawful Collection of Hidden Assets to Provide Order (EL CHAPO) Act” to use funds seized from Joaquin Guzman and other drug lords to build a border wall.

Is he so ignorant that he will not read the Constitution?  The emergency is not real only in his tiny mind from NYC….a made up crisis not an actually crisis like a hurricane……

Did you hear his speech in the Rose Garden today?

OMG!  He relived the 2016 election and talked about the situation on the border that was NOTHING accurate and choked full of LIES…..and the bobble-heads rejoiced!

Please someone take him aside for about a half hour and read the and explain the Constitution to this drooling toad….please!

Women…..A Media Smear Campaign

If you need an example that the MSM does not really hold to that old saying “fair and balanced”….those days are gone thanx to a Clinton program that allowed corporations to buy then control the news.

Since the midterms and a wealth of freshman Dem reps have entered the House most of whom are more progressive than the cowards that pretend to be so…..and now the media will do their job and try to smear these reps to keep any progressive agenda from seeing the light of day.

The MSM will emphasize the petty stories to keep the bigger stories from the airwaves.

They, MSM, seem to have their sights on 3 or 4 of the freshman representatives, the women, AOC, Ilhan, Rashida….then there is the campaign against an established rep……Tulsi Gabbard……

Apparently these women have more balls than the men in the House and the they plus the media are scared to death of strong women with plans.

Let’s begin with Ilhan and were statement about AIPAC (a statement that was NOT fact checked)…..I wrote about her statement earlier…..https://lobotero.com/2019/02/12/speaking-the-truth/

The MSM spent a couple days smearing her as much as possible…..

Minnesota Congresswoman Ilhan Omar has published an apology for making self-evident observations about the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), an immensely influential lobbying firm which, like all lobbying firms, works to influence government policy toward a specific agenda, in this case the interests of the Israeli government. She issued the apology after hours upon hours of shrill, hysterical shrieking accusations of antisemitism from the entire establishment political-media class.

https://theantimedia.com/ilhan-omar-smeared-by-political-establishment/

Like I wrote….she was not fact checked for her statement and the MSM has full time fact checkers for Trump and they could not take the time to do her the courtesy.

Next on the MSM hit list is the Palestinian-American rep Rashida….she got on the list because she called someone a MF……

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who officially became the first Palestinian-American congresswoman last week, was accused Monday of perpetuating historically anti-Semitic sentiments.

It is already the second major controversy for the freshman lawmaker. Last week — on the same day she was sworn into Congress — Tlaib triggered widespread condemnation and backlash after she referred to President Donald Trump as a “motherf***er,” asserting that she will effortlessly work to impeach the president.

https://www.theblaze.com/news/rashida-tlaib-anti-semitic-smear

I like her grit!

Ilhan and Rashida are targeted by others as well as the MSM….

Hardly anything has been more disruptive to geopolitics as usual in the Middle East than the newly flourishing relationship between the Saudi monarchy and the state of Israel.

While the newfound coziness between the two states is built largely on shared enmity towards Iran, the normalising of ties comes at the expense of the Palestinians, who have become, once again, all but ignored in the world of Arab politics.

https://theantimedia.com/rashida-tlaib-ilhan-omar-saudi-israel/

The most popular of the freshman Congresswoman, AOC, has got the MSM and the conservs running scared because of her popularity and her social media savvy….she is using it more effectively that “what’s his name”……

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has become a breakout star in the Democratic Party since June, when she pulled off a stunning upset in the New York midterm primaries, beating Rep. Joe Crowley, a top Democrat in the House.

And, not coincidentally, she has also become the white-hot epicenter of not just derision, but blistering, nonstop criticism from conservatives and Republicans.

Ocasio-Cortez is a part of the new left flank of the Democratic Party that is fighting both Republicans and establishment Democrats (and, occasionally, the media) in advance of the fall midterms.

https://www.vox.com/explainers/2018/8/20/17674910/conservatives-republicans-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-2018-midterms

Another rep that I like a lot…..she punishes back when morons attack….no excuses….great.

Finally (for now) is the only woman of the list that has announced she is running in 2020 for president….Tulsi.

So far she is the only candidate that is an antiwar candidate (will get my support for now) and the MSM cannot tolerate a candidate that does not support our many many wars…..

Last week, as a polar vortex engulfed broad swaths of the upper Midwest, Rachel Maddow offered a chilling hypothetical. “What would happen if Russia killed the power in Fargo today?” she asked her viewers. “I mean, what would you do if you lost heat indefinitely as the act of a foreign power, on the same day the temperature in your front yard matched the temperature in Antarctica?”

Since Robert Mueller began his collusion investigation nearly two years ago, Maddow has emerged as one of the nation’s leading “Russiagate” conspiracists, but she is hardly alone. Days after the MSNBC host speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin might try to freeze unsuspecting North Dakotans to death, NBC News published an article with the headline, “Russia’s propaganda machine discovers 2020 Democratic candidate Tulsi Gabbard.” And like Maddow’s on-air musings, the report has proved no less irresponsible.

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-mainstream-medias-smearing-of-tulsi-gabbard/

Four strong women representatives and the MSM like the “old guard” in the Congress especially the old white dudes are afraid and running scared as these women come to the forefront.

I am positive that the MSM is not through with the lies and the smears on these women.

******One side note……watch the media and listen……the overpaid douches on TV as pundits are scared to death of these women….they are taking every opportunity to smear them and tell just how ignorant they are, the women I mean, the MSM is SCARED to death that their policies, progressive policies will become popular and they will be in the cross hairs that they will bad mouth every turn these women talk, even the women pundits will them, like good old MIKA……do not be swayed by the fearful pundits……evaluate these women and their policies for yourself and not from slogans…..check their policies and the facts.  The country needs these women and their voices do not let the pundits, corporations and MSM silence them!******

The Wall: Will He Or Won’t He?

Sound the horns!  All praise him!  We all can breath a bit better now….or can we?

The bill keeping the government open will soon head for the desk of our Dear Leader….but before that let’ talk about his physical…..

The good news for President Trump is that the doctor who performed last week’s medical exam pronounced the 72-year-old to be in “very good health overall.” The bad news is that Trump gained 4 pounds from last year, enough to qualify him as technically obese, reports NPR. Trump is 6-3 and weighs 243 pounds, giving him a body mass index of 30.4. The cutoff for obesity is 30. Last year, Dr. Ronny Jackson urged Trump to lose 10 pounds, given that he had fallen just below the obesity mark. Instead, the president, whose main form of exercise is golf, gained a little weight. Still, Trump “is in very good health and I anticipate he will remain so for the duration of his presidency, and beyond,” wrote this year’s doctor, Navy Cmdr. Sean Conley, per USA Today.

How much does this doctor want an another job with Trump?

And now the rest of this post…..

Of course we all have heard about the wall and the part it played in the last shutdown…..well there seems to be a deal and it should head to Trump’s desk today….but there is more…..

President Trump will sign Congress’ border security compromise. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell confirmed that Thursday, followed quickly by confirmation from the White House. The announcements removed the last ounce of suspense over the fate of a bill that would provide just a sliver of the money Trump wants to build a wall with Mexico but also would avoid a new government shutdown. But both McConnell and the White House also said Trump would quickly declare a national emergency. The president has said that move would give him power to divert money from other budget projects into wall building. McConnell also said he would support Trump’s emergency declaration, the AP reports. That was a turnabout for the Kentucky Republican, who like Democrats and many Republicans has until now opposed such a declaration.

McConnell said Thursday that the Republican-controlled Senate will soon vote on the bill that’s needed to avoid a partial federal shutdown Friday; the Democrat-controlled House is also expected to vote on the bill later Thursday and passage by both chambers seemed certain. Bargainers formally completed the accord moments before midnight Wednesday night. Trump had previously signaled he would sign the bill but it was unclear until McConnell’s announcement if he would do so, prompting some lawmakers to voice concern. Per CNN, Trump’s only prior public message on the matter Thursday was a tweet: “Reviewing the funding bill with my team at the @WhiteHouse!” But White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders later issued a statement declaring Trump would sign the bill and “also take other executive action—including a national emergency—to ensure we stop the

national security and humanitarian crisis at the border.”

(McConnell has proved that he is a coward and a brown nose douche)

Trump will declare a national emergency…….Damn good idea!

Good idea because when a Dem is in control he/she can do the same for climate change or guns or health care….

But all bets are off if his political advisers on FOX like Hannity tell him to not sign he may do just that…..so “this thing ain’t over ’til it’s over” to quote Yogi.

A side thought……all this declaration stuff sounds more like a dictatorial move than a democratic one….but that is me.

“I Love a Parade”–Part 3

Closing Thought–14Feb19

Happy Valentine’s Day!

There is proof that Trump is clueless!  Yes the person YOU elected is a clueless fool!

Our Dear President went to France and saw a Bastille Day parade and was impressed so much that he came home and wanted to have a big military parade here in the US……I touched on his desire in a previous post…..https://lobotero.com/2018/08/17/i-love-a-parade-part2/

Since his military parade was crapped on he now thinks he has a better idea……

President Trump is once again proposing a parade. This time, it’s an Independence Day parade at the Lincoln Memorial. According to USA Today, Trump told Cabinet members Tuesday that a July 4 parade at the memorial “could be an exciting day” and might “become a tradition.” Trump made headlines pushing for a military parade last year that was projected to cost up to $92 million; the idea was ultimately axed. His new idea might not actually be for a parade, per se, he continued, per the Hill: “It’ll be a, really a gathering as opposed to a parade I guess you’d have to say,” the president said, calling it a “Salute to America.” Washington DC does have already-established Fourth of July events including a parade down Constitution Ave., a concert, and a fireworks show. (Trump said his military parade was scuttled due to local politicians’ greed.)

A parade with music and fireworks on the 4th of July……think about that for a moment!

Seriously….this is YOUR president….and he has NO CLUE!

Happy Valentine Day to one and all…..grab your honey and give ’em a big hug……Tomorrow y’all……chuq

Open Letter To Americans

I attempt to be fair and balanced….on major issues I try to give both sides……my attempt to be FYI……

There is a mash up going on t make a regime change in Venezuela…..most Americans know where the politicians and the MSM stand on the events in Venezuela.

The MSM has ignored the open letter that Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro has sent to the American people.

I try to be fair….so I will post thee entire letter for my readers that would like to read it…..

This letter is addressed to the People of America. Please forward this text far and wide, across the land.

Americans can then make up their mind. Am I in favor or against the Trump administration’s resolve to intervene militarily against Venezuela?

Feb. 10, 2019

***

If I know anything, it is about people, such as you, I am a man of the people. I was born and raised in a poor neighborhood of Caracas. I forged myself in the heat of popular and union struggles in a Venezuela submerged in exclusion and inequality.

I am not a tycoon, I am a worker of reason and heart, today I have the great privilege of presiding over the new Venezuela, rooted in a model of inclusive development and social equality, which was forged by Commander Hugo Chávez since 1998 inspired by the Bolivarian legacy.

We live today a historical trance. There are days that will define the future of our countries between war and peace. Your national representatives of Washington want to bring to their borders the same hatred that they planted in Vietnam. They want to invade and intervene in Venezuela – they say, as they said then – in the name of democracy and freedom. But it’s not like that. The history of the usurpation of power in Venezuela is as false as the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. It is a false case, but it can have dramatic consequences for our entire region.

Venezuela is a country that, by virtue of its 1999 Constitution, has broadly expanded the participatory and protagonist democracy of the people, and that is unprecedented today, as one of the countries with the largest number of electoral processes in its last 20 years. You might not like our ideology, or our appearance, but we exist and we are millions.

I address these words to the people of the United States of America to warn of the gravity and danger that intend some sectors in the White House to invade Venezuela with unpredictable consequences for my country and for the entire American region. President Donald Trump also intends to disturb noble dialogue initiatives promoted by Uruguay and Mexico with the support of CARICOM for a peaceful solution and dialogue in favour of Venezuela. We know that for the good of Venezuela we have to sit down and talk, because to refuse to dialogue is to choose strength as a way. Keep in mind the words of John F. Kennedy: “Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate”.

Are those who do not want to dialogue afraid of the truth?

The political intolerance towards the Venezuelan Bolivarian model and the desires for our immense oil resources, minerals and other great riches, has prompted an international coalition headed by the US government to commit the serious insanity of militarily attacking Venezuela under the false excuse of a non-existent humanitarian crisis.

The people of Venezuela have suffered painfully social wounds caused by a criminal commercial and financial blockade, which has been aggravated by the dispossession and robbery of our financial resources and assets in countries aligned with this demented onslaught.

And yet, thanks to a new system of social protection, of direct attention to the most vulnerable sectors, we proudly continue to be a country with a high human development index and low inequality in the Americas.

The American people must know that this complex multiform aggression is carried out with total impunity and in clear violation of the Charter of the United Nations, which expressly outlaws the threat or use of force, among other principles and purposes for the sake of peace and the friendly relations between Nations.

We want to continue being business partners of the people of the United States, as we have been throughout our history. Their politicians in Washington, on the other hand, are willing to send their sons and daughters to die in an absurd war, instead of respecting the sacred right of the Venezuelan people to self-determination and safeguarding their sovereignty.

Like you, people of the United States, we Venezuelans are patriots. And we shall defend our homeland with all the pieces of our soul.

Today Venezuela is united in a single clamor: we demand the cessation of the aggression that seeks to suffocate our economy and socially suffocate our people, as well as the cessation of the serious and dangerous threats of military intervention against Venezuela.

We appeal to the good soul of American society, victim of its own leaders, to join our call for peace, let us be all one people against warmongering and war.

Long live the peoples of America!

Nicolás Maduro

President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela

What is the media afraid of if they report all the news?

I am sick of the crap they pretend is news….a prince driving record…..a rapper with a song……the celeb of the day…..etc……

Please read this letter…it is a good letter and deserves to be read by ALL Americans…..always try to have both sides before you condemn or support.

Say Good-Bye To The Shah

I have to go to the doctor this morning so I leave (for now) with a history lesson (was that an eye roll?)

40 years on and the US is still slobbering to return to the days of the Shah…but the Fall……

the 40th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, we published an articleexplaining what the revolution can teach us about the economic and political problems facing Iran now. Today, I’d like to focus on the geopolitical implications of the revolution that saw the overthrow of the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and the rise of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. It was a formidable time for the country, but the existing geopolitics of the region remained largely intact.

Most observers didn’t expect the shah to fall, although many claimed afterward that they had predicted it. The shah, who was essentially installed by the United States and Britain, was used as a bulwark of the American containment strategy. He unseated democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, who the U.S. feared was aligned with the Soviets, and helped to block Soviet access to the Persian Gulf. He claimed to be the heir to the Iranian monarchy, but in reality, he sat on the throne because of a coup staged in 1925 by his father, Reza Shah Pahlavi, a military officer who himself had no connections to the long line of Persian monarchs.

Mohammad Reza Pahlavi enjoyed immense wealth but left his people profoundly unsatisfied, both economically and spiritually. Emulating Turkey’s Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, his father had sought a secular, militarist and authoritarian path to modernization. Iran’s merchant class didn’t care much about the modernization plans and demanded a cut of the country’s wealth. The shah appeared indifferent to their plight.

Khomeini did not. He bound up the grievances of the merchants and the peasants with the tenets of Shiite Islam. While sitting in exile in Paris, he sent copies of his sermons and speeches in which he laid out how the shah had betrayed Islam and stolen the wealth of the nation through his lavish and lascivious lifestyle. Experts dismissed him and the growing dissatisfaction, believing that discontent was a constant reality in Iran and that the shah could contain it.

From the American point of view, the shah was a great comfort. In 1973, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, had cut off oil shipments to the United States and parts of Europe. At the time, the Saudis were involved in the Arab-Israeli War and sought to outflank Soviet-sponsored Arab movements, especially Palestinian ones. The Soviets had supported coups in Iraq and Syria and backed paramilitary groups from both countries that were formally designed to confront Israel but were actually far more focused on Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia could be destabilized and the flow of oil interrupted, the Soviets thought, the position of the United States and Western Europe would be vastly weakened.

But the Saudis beat the Soviets to the punch by imposing an oil embargo themselves, undercutting Soviet attempts to make it appear that Saudi Arabia was an American puppet. The price of oil soared, creating a global recession. For the United States, the embargo was a mixture of pain and pleasure. On one hand, it caused massive economic disruption. On the other, it was Saudi Arabia, not a Soviet-linked Palestinian group, presiding over an Arab renaissance.

Iran, an enemy of Saudi Arabia, continued to ship oil to the West and made a lot of money in the process, which it largely spent on defense. There was serious talk of Iran becoming a regional hegemon and a nuclear power. The U.S. didn’t vigorously object to any of this. Given the global oil shortage, even after the embargo had ended, the United States had two overriding interests: to contain the Soviet Union and its apparent proxy, Iraq, and to ensure access to the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. intelligence worked closely with SAVAK, the shah’s intelligence service. The agency became Washington’s chief source of information on Iran – but SAVAK didn’t transmit any warning about the uprising to the U.S., either because it didn’t want to or because it didn’t anticipate the level of the unrest. Moreover, the United States’ other intelligence sources in Iran were part of the elite – the higher the sources, the greater the knowledge they can share, or so the U.S. believed. The problem, however, was that the elites were profiting from their ties to the regime and so were unlikely to reveal evidence of its demise until it was too late.

More important, it’s not easy to find sources who know when uprisings will occur and how they will turn out. The last people to know the shah was going to fall were those in the powerful classes, on whom the U.S. relied for intelligence. The idea that an extreme Shiite leader, sitting in exile in Paris, could manage an uprising against the man who could have brought the country to regional hegemony ran counter to all notions of power and continuity in Washington. President Jimmy Carter went out of his way to show his support for the shah almost to the end. It was inconceivable that the powerful would not remain powerful, or that a trained army could not defeat a rabble of protesters.

Those outside the government were equally deluded. Human rights groups loathed the shah for torturing and murdering his people. They made the same mistake that similar groups often make: believing that if a vile government is overthrown, what replaces it will be better. To appease his dissenters, Khomeini appointed a moderate, Mehdi Bazargan, as prime minister. But Bazargan’s liberal positions came into conflict with those of the radical Shiites who controlled the revolution, and his government fell.

The U.S. learned two lessons from this experience. First, you can’t rely solely on official intelligence sources to figure out what’s happening on the ground. Sometimes, the most valuable piece of intel is the reality staring you in the face. Second, geopolitics can be shifted but not obliterated. Iran under an Islamic regime was as hostile to Iraq and the Saudis and ambivalent toward the Kurds as it was under a secular one. Some things changed (Iran became hostile toward the United States), but other things stayed the same (its tensions with the Soviets continued). And as hostile as the U.S.-Iran relationship became, the U.S. continued to help supply Iran with weapons (hence the Iran-Contra affair). Geopolitically, regime change doesn’t alter as much as you might expect.

I’m still surprised at the failure of truly intelligent men and women in and out of government to understand that the shah was about to fall. In the 1980s, many of us were equally unable to grasp that the Soviets were hanging on for dear life. What is so obvious in retrospect was shrouded in the moment. But it shouldn’t have been. It was there for all to see, but recognizing it required looking behind the appearance of power and breaking the habit of believing that things always stay the same. The fall of the shah meant many things, but the failure to foresee his demise was ultimately about a lack of imagination and the inability to grasp that what was true yesterday might not be true tomorrow.

Your history lesson is complete…….and now a Neocon assessment of Iran…..

Forr almost two years, before President Trump ordered the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria in December 2018, the Trump administration pursued an Iran policy based on the use of all instruments of national power to stop Tehran from engaging in a wide array of aggressive and malign behaviors that defy global norms. In his May 21, 2018 speech, “A New Iran Strategy,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on Iran to end verifiably its nuclear weapons and advanced ballistic missile programs, cease its support for terrorism and the destabilization of foreign governments, release all hostages, and halt its aggression against Israel and other U.S. allies.1

To achieve these objectives, the administration designed a strategy to pressure the regime – diplomatically, economically, and militarily. To that end, the administration walked away from the nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and reinstated the comprehensive sanctions that had forced Iran to the negotiating table in 2013. The focal point of U.S. strategy was to intensify the Iranian regime’s ongoing liquidity crisis, which threatened to cripple its economy as a whole. The secretary of state also insisted the U.S. “will advocate tirelessly for the Iranian people,” who endure grave human rights violations and pervasive corruption. The Trump administration made it clear that it did not seek regime change, but would take advantage of the Islamic Republic’s deficit of legitimacy. In short, the U.S. purported to implement a policy of maximum pressure.

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/01/31/midterm-assessment-iran/

According to the Neocons we should fear Iran…….but they prefer bullsh*t to facts…..