Some Election Predictions

Don’t worry I am not going to offer some world ending prediction….no this is the prediction for the coming election…..

85 days and counting……

Will it be Biden (hopefully) or will it be Trump (a sad situation) that will win the hearts and minds of the American public?

First this is NOT my prediction…I gave up being a seer to write a blog……

It’s possible we may not know the results of the presidential race for weeks after Nov. 3 … or this very moment, if you want to believe Allan Lichtman’s prediction. And you’d have good reason to. The New York Times calls him “the Nostradamus of presidential elections”—he’s called them correctly for four decades—and in a video op-ed for the paper, he explains why Joe Biden is going to take it. Lichtman took 120 years of US elections, from 1860 to 1980, and, along with a Russian earthquake expert, developed what he has dubbed “The Keys to the White House.” He explains: “We recast American presidential elections as stability, the party holding the White House keeps the White House. And earthquake, the White House party is turned out of power.”

The way his 13 keys work is that each one is answered true or false. “True” indicates the White House party will retain power. Six or more false answers equal a political earthquake. Some of the keys are pretty basic political factors: Key No. 2, for instance: “There is no primary contest for the White House party.” True. Others are economic, like Key No. 6: “Long-term economic growth during this presidential term has been as good as the past two terms.” False. Others are societal, like No. 8: “There is no social unrest during the term.” False. Others are geopolitical, as with No. 10: “The White House has no major foreign or military failures abroad.” True “so far,” per Lichtman. And then there’s the nature of the candidates. No. 13: “The challenger is uncharismatic.” True, says Lichtman of Biden. His tally? Seven falses, meaning Biden has it—at least, according to the Keys.

There is more predictions about 2020 election…..

Of all the predictions about how Election 2020 might unfold, one seems safest of all: The night of November 3 is going to be a mess. Media writer Ben Smith of the New York Times writes that this year’s election night is going to be far different than any in modern history because of the extra time needed to count mail-in ballots or votes otherwise not cast in traditional Election Day fashion. After interviewing TV election analysts, execs, and hosts, he found that some are shrugging off the problem. But “I was alarmed by the near panic among some of the people paying the closest attention—the analysts and producers trying, and often failing, to get answers from state election officials about how and when they will count the ballots and report results.” The gist of his analysis is that Americans are not properly prepared for how this is going to play out.

“I don’t think it’s penetrated enough in the average viewer’s mind that there’s not going to be an election night,” says Brandon Finnigan of Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to media outlets. “The usual razzmatazz of a panel sitting around discussing election results—that’s dead.” There’s nothing inherently wrong with taking days or weeks to count ballots, writes Smith, but the format TV networks use to deliver results runs counter to that process. Drawing on advice from political scientists, Smith suggests the media should embark on an extensive educational campaign to start schooling people on the need for patience. Ditching traditional election-night features such as “percent of precincts reporting” might help, too, given that mail-in ballots might still be sitting in warehouses. Read the full analysis.

Any thoughts you would like to share?

I am listening!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

3 thoughts on “Some Election Predictions

  1. My prediction is that there is such revolting horror for the looting in New York and Chicago for instance and the daily assaults and attacks on police and facilities in Portland for example that a huge pro Trump backlash is erupting that nullifies all the traditional and historical indicators for reasonable predictions. Just the millions of first time gun sales represent Trump voters..

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