FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control | FiveThirtyEight

As promised in my previous post….this is the prediction that Nate Silver is making for the 2014 midterms…..read it and weep for the nation.

Solution?  You can either get off your butt and vote or wait for the results and do what you do so well….WHINE!

 

FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control | FiveThirtyEight.

Bend Over And Grab Your Ankles

The title is self explanatory for Democrats…….I have been saying that the Dems have not done a very good job of framing their positions for the upcoming midterms……I have also stated that with the increase pressure from the GOP on Obamacare failures and the run up to making it more difficult for normally Dem voters…… the likelihood that the Senate could be lost to the GOP come November.

Imagine the screwing that the American people will take with the legislative branch and the judicial in the hands of conservs…….NOTHING will be accomplished for the next two year…..all of which is what the GOP would like….it will make it a little easier for them to take the White House if they can show how badly the Dems govern……..the sad part is that Dems are giving this scenario to the GOP because they are just too good to bother to vote in the midterms…..

But do not take my word for it…….Nate Silver, a political calculus dude, has been very successful in his predictions of political races…..he was spot on in 2012 and now he speaks on his calculations for the mid-terms……

From his blog “FiveThirtyEight.com”……………

When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast — way back in July — we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up. That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber.

Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.

Note:  I will press the whole post so that you may see just what and how he is predicting this

Only person to blame when this occurs is oneself….if you did not vote because it was not interesting enough for you to waste your time……

Could Mississippi Be In Play?

I see that NO one is really interested in the goings on in the state of Mississippi–I thought they might find something of interest…..I was gravely mistaken…..one last test of your boring reflex and I shall move on…….

In my long and somewhat illustrious life (HA HA) there have been only 5 US senators……Stennis, Eastland, Lott, Cochran and now Wicker……I am old and I mean OLD….5, once you get elected you are there until you either drop dead or decide to retire…..that is why so many want the job and so few actually get it…..

Anyway it seems that a Dem, Travis Childers, a super conserv Dem is running against Thad Cochran, a Republican…….

Former Democratic Rep. Travis Childers, who represented the state’s deeply conservative 1st congressional district from May 2008 to January 2011, jumped in the race on Friday.

“Today I am filing to run for the U.S. Senate to make sure that all Mississippians have a Senator in Washington looking out for them,” he said in a statement. “Regular people and small businesses across Mississippi are still hurting in this economy, but Washington is more partisan and dysfunctional than ever. That has got to change.”

The Democrat is vying for the seat of Sen. Thad Cochran (R), which he has held since 1978. Cochran, 76, is duking it out with GOP primary challenger Chris McDaniel, a state senator who has support from tea party organizations like the Club For Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund.

The deep-red state is a long shot for Democrats in any event. The last time Mississippi had a Democratic senator was 1989 — John Stennis. But operatives believe they have a better chance if McDaniel wins the primary. The Republican state senator has made some missteps such as retweeting a neo-Nazi account and blaming gun violence on hip-hop music.

“This is a huge get for Democrats,” said a Democratic strategist involved in the 2014 Senate races. “Mississippi is now in play.”

I say great but I do not think that he can get past the title of Democrat.  Regardless of his stands and his beliefs…..that would put him in the same party as Harry Reid, who is detested in the state…….as an Mississippian I think he is well qualified but he is also delusional……he may present a good show but if Cochran is to be beat for the seat it will be from someone to his, (Cochran’s) extreme right….sorry to pee on the parade.

Going Nuke!

Well we could talk about the deal, tentative deal, that has been seemingly agreed to between the world and Iran on the nuke thingy……but I did that yesterday and redundancy has not been my thing lately….nope today’s nuke post is about the Dems going “nuclear” on the Senate filibuster rule, the 60 vote super majority…….is this worthy of labeling it a success?

(Newser) – Today’s vote in the Senate to curb the use of the filibuster has turned what was shaping up to be an “inconsequential” Congress into exactly the opposite, writes Ezra Klein at the Washington Post. “Indeed, this might prove to be one of the most significant congresses in modern times,” he argues. “Today, the political system changed its rules to work more smoothly in an age of sharply polarized parties.” If our political system is to avoid “complete dysfunction,” we’ll need more changes like it. Speaking of polarized parties, the move is generally getting rave reviews on the left and slams on the right:

  • Boo: “If Republicans went nuclear first in order to ‘ram through right-wing judges,’ how would breaking the rules have played in the media?” tweeted Matt Lewis.
  • Blame Mitch: “Any claim that the Senate’s current minority is simply following past practices is not credible,” writes Ian Millhiser at ThinkProgress. “The filibuster existed before the Age of McConnell, but McConnell made them commonplace.” (He’s got a chart to make the point.)
  • Risky precedent: Democrats allowed the filibuster to remain in effect for legislation and Supreme Court nominees, notes Allahpundit at Hot Air. “The possibility of a Republican president and a Republican Senate pushing through pro-life justices is too horrifying to the left for them to risk changing the rules on SCOTUS appointments too.” Of course, now that the precedent of weakening the filibuster has been set, that might change, too.
  • Good move: “There is ample precedent for this kind of change, though it should be used judiciously,” write the editors at the New York Times. “Today’s vote was an appropriate use of that power, and it was necessary to turn the Senate back into a functioning legislative body.”

And now the Dems are celebrating quietly….HA…I lied….they are walking around like the cat that ate the mouse…..so the question now is….is this a good thing?

Best answer is yes and no…..a bit of a cop out I know but we have to look at bother sides of this thing…….it is good for Obama and his nominating process…..but keep in mind that eventually the GOP will return to prominence in the Senate and this will come back to bite the Dems in the ass……but for now they, the Dems, can strut around like they have accomplished something…..but personally, I think it will be more harmful than good…..but we shall see…..right?

I am positive that some of my readers will have an opinion….voice it!

Mississippi’s Invisible Senator

What a deal….I get to do two post on my state of Mississippi…..which is great for not much happens in this state other than the usual budget cutting and services curtailment……

We have had a senator for as long as most of us can remember named Thad Cochran…….. (pause here for reflection)……..everybody has heard of Trent Lott but who the Hell has ever heard of Cochran?  My point exactly….not many.

From talkingpointsmemo.com……..

Mississippi State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) jumped into the Senate race for Sen. Thad Cochran’s (R-MS) seat on Thursday and was immediately endorsed by two prominent conservative organizations.

McDaniel had been floating a primary challenge to either Cochran or Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-MS) prior to his announcement.

Tea Party groups in the state support McDaniel and within minutes the Senate Conservatives Fund, Club for Growth, and Madison Project offered their endorsements.

“Chris McDaniel is a constitutional conservative who will fight to stop Obamacare, balance the budget, and get America working again,” Senate Conservatives Fund Executive Director Matt Hoskins said in a statement . “Chris McDaniel is not part of the Washington establishment and he has the courage to stand up to the big spenders in both parties. He’s a principled leader who will make Mississippi proud.”

I find it incredible that he was planning to go after Palazzo who was the Tea Party fav in his race against Gene Taylor….Taylor, a Democrat, a blue dog had a 99% rating for voting in favor of the middle class…he was pro-gun, pro-life, pro seniors, everything the retirees in the area could want….but because he was a Dem he was booted out of office in favor of a Tea Party candidate……and now that candidate has not preformed to their liking and he could get a challenger…….

As far as Cochran goes…he will most likely bow out because he has lost the extreme right confidence and Mississippi could have the next Ted Cruz in the making….joy, joy……..

A Nightmare Scenario

Can you remember back to 2012?  The election…..all the negativity and lies……remember all the polls that show Mitt basically running neck and neck with Obama?  There were even some that were predicting a Mitt victory by a slim margin.  Through all this speculation came a political mathematician, Nate Silver……he was laughed at when he predicted the the Prez would win and win big……there were many in the MSM that totally ignored his numbers and his prediction…..and guess what?  He was right and all the “reputable” pollsters were completely WRONG!

As a political wonk I keep up with Nate Silver and his latest but initial findings are disturbing…….

Harry Reid might want to think carefully before revising the filibuster rules—because there’s a decent chance he’ll soon be on the other end of them. Nate Silver at the New York Times has crunched the race-by-race numbers, and based on them and his own best guesses and assumptions, concluded that “Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber,” even though they’ll have to win more seats to do it this year (net six) than they needed in 2012.

Some key races include:

  • South Dakota and West Virginia: Democrats are retiring in both these states, the GOP has strong contenders, and the electorate leans red already.
  • North Carolina: Republicans still don’t have a good candidate here, but given how poorly incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan is polling, they need only a halfway decent one.
  • Arkansas: Democrat Mark Pryor’s poll numbers took a dip recently, and given how badly Blanche Lincoln lost her seat here, he can’t be feeling safe.
  • Montana: Barry Schweitzer’s decision not to run is a huge boon for Republicans who now have the most qualified potential candidate in former Gov. Marc Racicot, in a state that already leans red.
  • Alaska “is the closest thing to a tipping point state,” representing Republicans’ best bet to go from 50 seats to 51—assuming they win all of the above, plus tossup Louisiana—but incumbent Democrat Mark Begich is polling pretty well right now. (Will a familiar name be in the mix?)

This is worrying me…..I trust Silver and his technique…….it is disturbing to know that the GOP could possibly control both houses of the legislative branch…..if he is accurate, we are in for a long two years of total obstructionism………….any thoughts?