Institutionalization Of Conflict–Page 2

An alternate title could be…..”Time To Re-Think Dictators?”

A few years ago I wrote a piece on the conflict between the Palestinians and Israelis entitled “Institutionalization Of Conflict”……now that the battle for the hearts and minds in the Middle East by ISIS I feel I need to expand on my assumptions…….

The US has a long history of siding with dictators until it is inconvenient to do so……think Iran, Guatemala, Grenada, Panama, Iraq, Syria and others that have escaped my memory……once we turn our backs on them then the whole region comes tumbling down…..kinda like the walls of Jericho, well actually there is NO historical evidence that ever happened.  Once we withdraw our support then violence and destruction is the rewards for our inaction…….civilians always pay the price for our geopolitical maneuvering….

Our constant interventions have cost the country dearly……and that interventionism has cost the people of the countries we deal with even more in deaths and destruction.

Our ‘war’ on dictators has accomplished little over the years…..Saddam was our friend, Mubarak was our friend and threw them under the bus at the first signs of conflict……then there is Qaddafi never was a friend but at the first signs of conflict the CIA trots out their agent in Gen. Haftar to take over the control of rebel factions in the early days of the Libyan revolt…..now there is Syria and Assad, a scenario still in motion.

My point is that the dictators that were our friends and then they weren’t……… the countries are in constant turmoil…..the loss of life and property is enormous.

Staring in 2001 with the attacks on the Twin Towers…..the US made it official….they were going to institutionalize conflict.  There is a case to be made that the attacks in Afghanistan were legit and warranted….but in 2003 the US decided that Saddam had to go and every possible angle was used to justify the invasion….chem weapons, AQM, on and on……there has never been any proof of any of the allegations to justify the attack.

Of course some could use the Cold War as the beginning of the institutionalization of conflict…..the US had proxies back in those days that would glad do the fighting for the US……those days are gone.  The Military-Industrial Complex (M-IC) had to find away to keep their fingers in foreign policy and the rise of AQ was such an opportunity.

Under the guise of democracy these influential companies made more war possible and to the point that it will be continuous.  The best problem with fighting terrorism is that the planners look to the past for answers in the future…..the same can be said about the Israel-Palestine conflict……there will never be a solution as long as the past is used as a model.  And so it is with the fight against terror.  The reason there a few good answers in this fight is that the people making the plans have NO idea what the enemy is like or capable of doing.

Back to the premise…….

The area known as The :Levant has been a hot bed of violence, rebellion and chaos for centuries…..from many peoples and various empires to the Abbasids to the Ottomans to Mandates of early 20th century to the US and its 2 invasions…….all that history that is too extensive to chronicle here ……… (suggestion…if intersected the Google machine will help)………

The point being that the only times of relative calm and quiet is when a strong man was in charge…..i e a dictator.

We have seen what happens when the US aides in the demise of a dictator in the Middle East and/or North Africa…….

As evidence that a dictatorship isn’t the worst scenario, Ken Roth cites the case of Syria, where autocracy’s ostensible calm has given way to mass slaughter. Yet Roth’s answer is for the west to get tough on Assad, perhaps with military action, which would only extend and deepen the war. I draw a different conclusion while applying the same there-are-things-worse-than-dictatorship lesson. The answer to the war in Syria is peace in Syria, a negotiated settlement under which Assad or a successor remains in power. This appears to be the approach favored by a strong majority of Syrians, who back Assad according to all available information. Data compiled last year by Western activists (and given to NATO) found that 70% of Syrians support Assad over foreign-backed rebels. That is, they’ve chosen dictatorship over war.

I’m not suggesting that dictatorships are acceptable. People need governments much better than corrupt, torturing (and great-power appeasing) autocracies. But they won’t get them through western imperialism masquerading as revolution, or through “solidarity” that comes in the form of hellfire missiles. “We” must help those under attack by the dictator, says the humanitarian hawk, but the “we” in question is the US government, and the US government — bent on division, destruction, and domination — is never the friend of democratic movements. In both Libya and Syria, we can see all too vividly what results when relatively weak uprisings get assistance from (are hijacked by) imperial forces, and, yes, it’s worse than what existed before. People living in repression need indigenous movements powerful enough both to dislodge regimes and to reject the insidious help of western countries. There are no shortcuts.  (thanx to Rogue Nation and David Mizner)……

We may not want to admit it…..because of our love for democracy and the belief it can cure all ills……but in a society that has NO experience in the functions of a democratic society a dictator may be the only thing that stands between violence and relative calm…..

Middle East – Are there any ‘moderate’ rebel groups left in Syria? – France 24

It is the beginning of another election cycle and because of that we will hear hour upon hour of GOP chest thumping about ISIS and the defeat of extremism……none of which will be accurate but it does make for some wonderful applause moments……

Of course their answer is that we, the US, must support the “moderate” rebels in their fight against Assad and ISIS…..the problem with their argument is just which rebel faction is the “moderates” that we need to support…….

This article may have the answer we all are searching for in our research to find an answer to the ISIS problem…….

 

Middle East – Are there any ‘moderate’ rebel groups left in Syria? – France 24.

AQ’s SEAL Team 6

I do not know if many Americans remember 6 months ago when the news on every channel was the Al-Qaeda had its own version of the “best if the best” soldiers…….in case you do not….they were called Khorasan.

All the news for about 2 weeks was what this group was and what we could expect from them as far as tactics go…….many many hours of coverage was given to this group and many experts were trotted out to tell the American people what this group was capable of accomplishing…….this effort by the media and the government convinced many Americans that another 9/11 style attack was being planned……

For my part I was dubious of this report…..there was NOTHING any where in any media that would lead me to believe that there was such a group….to me it sounded like propaganda to get the American people of the side of more intervention in the Middle East…….

Over the weekend I found someone who would talk on the record about this group……..

the head of al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria gave the clearest indication yet that the group is a fabrication. In an interview conducted with Al Jazeera Arabic, Abu Muhammad al Jolani, the head of Jabhat al Nusra, said the following:

“The so-called Khorasan group, supposedly active within our ranks, doesn’t exist. We first heard about it via the media after the U.S.-led coalition bombed us. It is merely a Western invention to justify the bombings on us. There are some brothers from Khorasan who joined our strife though.”

That just confirmed my suspicion that the whole story was made up…..a lame attempt at propaganda……

Every attempt will be made to continue the people’s support of a war that is going NOWHERE!

We need to be vigilant…..check every accusation……check every “fact”…….the government has NO problem lying to the people…….it matters not the party that is in power…….

If they lied about this situation…….what else are they lying about?

 

ISIS Coalition SITREP #83

Welcome to the briefing…..it has been awhile since the last one that is because there has been very little news that is worthy of comment….since the last report al-Baghdadi has been seriously wounded, number 2 man in Iraq has been reported killed, the ISIS minister of finance in Syria has been killed and wife taken prisoner with lots of data captured as well.  Al-Anbar province is being overrun…………city of Ramadi has been taken by ISIS fighters…..and the airstrikes continue.

Item 1–Advancing near the ancient city of Palmyra, ISIS is said to have captured the al-Hail and Arak gas fields, two very important parts of fueling Syria’s electricity grid.

Item 2–US airstrikes are working as the air cover for Shi’ite militias……….

Item 3–the defeat in Ramadi of Iraq troops looked a lot like the early days of the fighting with ISIS……massive retreating leaving equipment and arms behind…..with the fall of Ramadi ISIS is just 50 miles from Baghdad……that should worry everybody in DC.

Item 4–ISIS has finally captured the ancient city of Palmyra and with that victory that control a wide swath of land in Syria……

Capturing the ancient city of Palmyra (Tadmur in Arabic) and valuable nearby gas fields was just part of the gains of ISIS across Syria, which have now reached the point that the “caliphate” includes more than half of Syria’s territory.

Indeed, ISIS seems to be making gains across both Syria and Iraq, taking the major Iraqi city of Ramadi yesterday, and then seizing the al-Waleed border crossing, the last crossing between Iraq and Syria that they didn’t already hold.

Item 5–……..the story around the fall of the Anbar Province capital of Ramadi in recent days has been predictions of Iraq retaking the city, the reality is ISIS is continuing its eastward advance.

Early in the day, Iraqi forces reported they were exchanging mortar fire with ISIS forces east of the city, and had held them off, but by evening police commanders confirmed they’d been overrun entirely by ISIS.

Keep in mind that Baghdad is less than 60 miles from Ramadi…..is the capital next on the list?

Item 6–It appears that our “ally” Turkey may have helped ISIS inn the beginning…….

Witness testimony obtained by Reuters has once again shown that the Turkish government was dishonest about their involvement in the rise of Islamist rebels in northern Syria.

The testimony of officials revealed that Turkey’s MIT state spy agency repeatedly accompanied cargoes of weaponry across the border into Islamist rebel-controlled territory in January of 2014, and threatened border police who objected.

The weapons shipments were distributed among various rebel factions, and are believed to have played a significant role in ISIS gains in that area of Syria, which they control to this day.

Now I will wait to see if the media touches this or if it is down played…..my guess is the later.

Item 7–Iran has sent in troops to Iraq to assist in the refinery fight that is raging at this time.  This is gonna be a big deal.  The US has got to decide one way or the other.  Or should it be up to Iraq to decide who fights the good fight?

Item 8–Since the beginning of the conflict the Sunni tribes had to depend on the Shia government in Baghdad for supplies and arms……that is about to change…….

Under US law, foreign military aid is supposed to be provided directly to foreign governments. Efforts to arm up various factions in Iraq, including the Peshmerga and Sunni tribal militias, have thus long had to go through a central Iraqi government with limited interest in seeing those groups get too powerful.

Today, the Pentagon announced it has plans for direct provision of weapons to Sunni tribal factions inside Anbar Province, aiming to bolster them amid recent ISIS gains.

This one simple action could do more good than a month of training……

This concludes the briefing……next one will be as needed…….

Thanx for your time and attention…….

TURN THE PAGE!

ISIS: From Out Of The Shadows

From the overworked fingers of Chuq

While doing research for a piece I am writing about the possibility of peace in the Middle East I came across a report from 2012 issued by a super secret intel group within our government.  I found it fascinating and decided to put my “Peace” post on ice for awhile to do more research.

For months now the GOP and any other Right wing lunatic to get his/her name in the media has accused the Obama government as the creator of ISIS…….there have been so many and most of them are running for the GOP nomination in 2016……..so much talk and so little proof that it is becoming redundant.

One fine morning the American people woke up to a new problem on the horizon…….the civil war was not going as well as the government had wanted……and then there appears a new opponent, the Islamic State In Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and since that day it has gone through a wide array of acronyms to describe it…..AQI, ISIS, ISIL and just plain IS….you pick the one that stirs your loins…..

While the government was trying to decide whether to get involved in Syria or not……a group arose out of the ashes and started showing amazing fighting skills by overrunning cities, military complexes and then on to Iraq to do the same and before long this group controlled a sizable stretch of territory…..

This group’s rapid rise got the intel community into a rush to find something that can be useable……something the prez could use to make an adequate policy speech.

The CIA scrambled…..the NSA listened…….then out of the shadows came one of the most secret groups in Washington….the DIA……and their report on ISIS…..

Since Syria’s Assad’s father day the US has had a hard on for a regime change in the country……and then the Arab Spring caught fire and made it into Syria…..the DIA used its many resources and came up with a plan for Syria…..

  • Al-Qaeda drives the opposition in Syria
  • The West identifies with the opposition
  • The establishment of a nascent Islamic State became a reality only with the rise of the Syrian insurgency (there is no mention of U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq as a catalyst for Islamic State’s rise, which is the contention of innumerable politicians and pundits; see section 4.D. below)
  • The establishment of a “Salafist Principality” in Eastern Syria is “exactly” what the external powers  supporting the opposition want (identified as “the West, Gulf Countries, and Turkey”) in order to weaken the Assad government
  • “Safe havens” are suggested in areas conquered by Islamic insurgents along the lines of the Libyan model (which translates to so-called no-fly zones as a first act of ‘humanitarian war'; see 7.B.)
  • Iraq is identified with “Shia expansion” (8.C)
  • A Sunni “Islamic State” could be devastating to “unifying Iraq” and could lead to “the renewing facilitation of terrorist elements from all over the Arab world entering into Iraqi Arena.” (see last non-redacted line in full PDF view.)

Of course the AQM or AQI which morphed into ISIS was the best way to prompt a regime change in Syria……..to be honest they did foresee a problem with AQM……a problem that could come back and bite in the ass.

Realistic the US did not create ISIS…..it has been there the whole time just with another name AQM…….but their rush to end the Assad regime may have done more to enable the group than anyone would like to admit.

 

syriatimes.sy – Rest in Peace, Queen Zenobia!

ISIS has taken control of the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra………to most people it means nothing but since I am a history buff and have had the opportunity to visit the site back in the 80’s it is especially interesting for me…

Ifrom time to time like to throw some history in my post to help people understand why some places are important…..Palmyra is one of those sites…….ever hear of Queen Zenobia?

 

syriatimes.sy – Rest in Peace, Queen Zenobia!.