Tag: International Tensions

Tap Dance At The G20

Inkwell Institute

International Studies Group

Recently in Toronto there was a meeting of the mindless…a group called the G20……a meeting of the top leaders from 20 different countries that meet to plan the world economy and here is what they decided:

The communiqué called for governments to halve their budget deficits by 2013 and for the ratio of national debt to gross domestic product to be stabilised by 2016. This was seen as a win for Germany and other countries backing deficit reduction. But the document made clear that these targets were not binding and, in a concession to the US, expressed the hope that governments would follow “growth-friendly fiscal consolidation plans”.

In a further bid to walk both sides of the street at the same time, the communiqué declared: “There is a risk that synchronised fiscal adjustment across several major economies could adversely impact the recovery. There is also the risk that failure to implement consolidation where necessary would undermine confidence and hamper growth.”

The G20 resolution on fiscal consolidation allowed all sides to claim a victory even as the differences widen. German chancellor Angela Merkel said the outcome was “more than I expected”. She claimed that the views of continental Europe had prevailed. German officials noted that the US had learned its lesson about writing public letters that sought to change the position of others. In the lead up to the summit, Obama issued a letter to G20 participants warning that too rapid fiscal tightening could impede global recovery. He noted that earlier G20 agreements had pointed to the need for export surplus countries—a reference to Germany and China—to increase domestic demand.

As usual this meeting was nothing more than a photo op for the leaders to appear to be working on solutions when all they were doing is a slow tap dance.  The reality is that the world cannot solve these problems it is up to the individual countries to find the answers and to pretend any thing else is just absurd.

Is Korean Story A Blowjob?

Inkwell Institute

International Studies

Asian Desk

We have all heard the horrible story of the dastardly N. Koreans that torpedoed a S. Korean ship…the world exploded in a wealth of condemnation and pure pissed off-ness.  My loyal reader and friend over at Quintessential Havoc (blogroll will get you to an excellent and insightful site) have had a few exchanges on the situation….we have agreed that if true N. Korea should be made to pay for this break in international protocol.

But since our original exchange took place not all the info had been made public and I would like to pass unto everyone interested in the unfolding of this story…..this from New America Media (I am NOT claiming this is what happened only that there is a bunch of questions)….

There’s yet another possibility, that a U.S. rising mine sank the Cheonan in a friendly-fire accident.

The first telltale sign of an official smokescreen involves the location of the Choenan sinking – Byeongnyeong Island (pronounced Pyongnang) in the Yellow Sea. On the westernmost fringe of South Korean territory, the island is dominated by a joint U.S.-Korean base for anti-submarine warfare (ASW) operations. The sea channel between Byeongnyeong and the North Korean coast is narrow enough for both sides to be in artillery range of each other.

Anti-sub warfare is based on sonar and acoustic detection of underwater craft. Since civilian traffic is not routed through the channel, the noiseless conditions are near-perfect for picking up the slightest agitation, for example from a torpedo and any submarine that might fire it.

North Korea admits it does not possess an underwater craft stealthy enough to slip past the advanced sonar and audio arrays around Byeongnyeong Island, explained North Korean intelligence analyst Kim Myong Chol in a news release. “The sinking took place not in North Korean waters but well inside tightly guarded South Korean waters, where a slow-moving North Korean submarine would have great difficulty operating covertly and safely, unless it was equipped with AIP (air-independent propulsion) technology.”

Once again….I am NOT claiming to have all the answers just that there are a few things that are not being said in the media or by the admin…

A Fresh START!

Inkwell Institute

International Studies Group

European Desk

Our president, Barack Obama, is in Prague to meet with the prez of Russia to sign the latest incarnation of the Start treaty……the AP is reporting:

Seeking to end years of rancor, President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday signed the biggest nuclear arms pact in a generation and envisioned a day when they can compromise on the divisive issue of missile defense.

The pact will shrink the limit of nuclear warheads to 1,550 per country over seven years. That still allows for mutual destruction several times over. But it is intended to send a strong signal that Russia and the U.S. — which between them own more than 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons — are serious about disarmament.

We can all sleep better at night knowing that the START Treaty has been signed…or can we?

Before I give my analysis of the latest treaty we need to do a little history lesson…in the beginning were the SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks)…..meetings between the US and USSR over the amounts and elimination of nukes…..SALT I was signed in 1974 by Pres. Ford and Breshnev…it  froze the number of missile launchers at the present number and dimantle some of the ICBMs….and we slept better…

SALT II was signed in 1979 by Pres, Carter and Brezhnev….this treaty was NOT ratified by the US Congress so it was a non-player…..why?….six months after the treaty USSR invaded Afghanistan and as they say, the rest is history….

Then came the first START Treaty which was signed by Pres. Reagan and Gorbachov among others….and this treaty expired on 08 April 2010…hence the new signing ceremony……

Now for the analysis of the treaty….after almost 40 years of negotiations and there is still 5000+ nukes somewhere in the world is just plain pathetic…all this signing and all the signings were is just a political game to make the players look more statesman-like…the fact that after such a long time and countless negotiations, NO one is serious about getting rid of any nukes….why?….it is the perfect bargaining tool…..why do you think that Iran and North Korea are busting their butts tryinbg to get a nuke?  The device will give them a bargaining position that they did not have in the past….it is just that simple.

The latest signing in Prague was NOTHING more than smoke….both leaders made a speech and looked very statesman-like which, as I have said, is the sole purpose of this political exercise……it also gives the US a shield against criticism that the rest of the world has laid on it….saying that the US can have nukes but no one else can….the US can now say, “look we are doing our part to eliminate the need for nukes”….while actually doing NOTHING…..

The Middle East Tap Dance

Professor’s Classroom

Subject:  Middle East Conflict

Paper #2

I have written a piece last week about the “Institutionalization of Conflict” and how it MUST continue…too much depends on the longevity of the conflict…..

We have seen this scenario play out countless times in the recent past, but they will try it again and again and……..

News out of the Middle East has it that the US will play shuttle diplomacy (yet again) between Israel and the Palestinians…..and everyone is hopeful (yet again) that this time “real” progress will be made for a settlement of the hostilities between the two parties….as ALWAYS a monkey wrench of a problem as arisen……

During the recent visit to the region by VP Biden was hailed as a new beginning to the peace process…..but before the words were even cool in the ears of people a rocket of insulting actions were fired by PM Netanyahu when he announced the building of more settlements on the West Bank…..and the prospect of HOPE was dashed on the rocks of conflict (yet again)……..

The timing of the announcement could not have been timed more poorly than it was…..the announcement is stupid and may damage relations with Washington and possibly the whole world……this whole scenario has been played over and over and over for the last 30 years, probably more, just when we think that progress will be made….then…BAM!….somebody does something stupid and then the talks are off for another year…..with promises that next there will be progress…..and still NOTHING has changed…..

For instance back in the late 80’s and early 90’s, the Palestinians had the first Intifada, where Palestinians kids were throwing rocks at Israeli soldiers with guns….they got whole world’s attention and lots of support internationally….but then some a/hole introduced guns and everything went to sh*t……

Since those days it has been one promise after another and what has been accomplished?  A lot of damn talking and NO action, with the except of rockets being fired, minor armed conflicts and settlements being built…..

Somebody needs to find a way to shut the politicians the f*ck up and let the people talk for themselves….bet we could find a solution then…..but as it is today…no one really wants peace….especially the damn politicians….so this scenario will play out again and again……with politicians there is NO end……..

Disgruntled Clerics Challenge Iranian Leader

We have all seen the protests and violence that has happened in Iran as an aftermath of a questionable election and its results.  Many have said it is the beginning of the end of the Supreme Council and yet others have said that it will survive and continue its confrontational ways.

I found an interesting perspective written by Jason Ditz:

Iranian opposition candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi has vowed to continue his campaign against the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which he has maintained is illegitimate in the wake of last month’s contested elections. Still, it seems the violent demonstrations have subsided, and Iran has returned to relative normalcy.

At least superficially. Privately many members of Iran’s powerful clergy remain dissatisfied with the reaction of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a growing number are willing to publicly criticize both the vote and Khamenei.

In the end, the resentment and growing opposition in the clergy could prove a serious threat to Khamenei’s grip on power, and may well be a problem for him to deal with long after the contested presidential election is nothing more than a memory.

Still, it remains unclear just how far opposing ayatollahs will be willing to go against Khamenei’s rule. Nevertheless, the Iranian government appears to be facing one of the worst domestic crises of confidence since the 1979 revolution.

I feel that if there ever is going to be a shake up in Iran, that it will have to come from the clerics, as of today, they hold all the power.  But is any of them strong enough to challenge the cleric now in charge?

Understanding Iran–Intro

This is from Professor’s classroom.

Iran has election….present pres. wins…protests follow….crack down follows that……bloodshed and accusations fly…..

The AP is reporting that after the mullahs warning…the protests continued.

Iran braced for the possibility of more bloody confrontations between protesters and security forces on the streets of Tehran as fresh images of brutality emerged Sunday despite the regime’s attempts to impose a news blackout.Witnesses claimed that numerous demonstrators were injured — and several allegedly killed — in clashes with black-clad police wielding guns, truncheons, tear gas and water cannons on Saturday as protests over disputed elections escalated into Iran’s most serious internal unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Authorities did not confirm any deaths, and the reports from bloggers and Twitter users inside Iran could not immediately be verified.

All eyes are on Iran and how the election protesters are handled.

Iran is one of those countries that is mystery to most people…the only info they have is what they read or hear in the media.

Iran?  Yep….the country seems to always be in the news and on the lips of American politicians….some analysts say we need to inject the US into the protests and others say we need to stay out of it…..do not give the Supreme Council any more reason to hate the US.  What should we do?

Iran has made it in the news again…this time it is not about whether the holocaust happened or what to do about nukes…..it is all about the recent election and the protests that followed.

Analysts are jumping for joy over the protests they say it is a show of weakness for the mullahs and a strength of the people.  Many are encouraged by the protests and say that it shows the strength of the moderates.  Personally, I think that it is a bit too optimistic.  Some see the popularity of Mousavi as a turning point in Iranian politics.

Unfortunately, not many people understand Iran and what is happening.  For this reason too much misinformation is out there and people are playing to that erroneous information.

In the next parts of this post I will explain, as best I can, why I feel that this is not as good of news as most seem to think it is.

Another Cuban Missile Crisis?

Russian warships have entered Cuban waters for the first time since the end of the Cold War.

A Russian destroyer and two support ships sailed into Havana Bay on their way home from joint exercises with the Venezuelan navy.

It is the latest sign of improved ties between Moscow and communist-run Cuba, which were allies during Soviet days.

Russia has been angered by US plans for a missile defence system in Europe, and its support for Georgia in the recent conflict with Russia.

The Russian embassy in Cuba told the AFP news agency that the ships were on a friendly, working visit designed to “develop” relations and “co-operation” between the two countries.

But analysts say Moscow is sending a symbolic message to the US about the consequences of Washington’s activity in regions that Russia regards as its sphere of influence.

Cuba’s communist leadership was closely allied to Moscow during the Cold War, but relations have weakened since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

This situation might need to be watched closely….or the possiblity of another missile crisis could be in the making.

Ukraine Pot Begins To Bubble

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko on Wednesday abandoned the search for a coalition to take over from the current “orange” government, dissolved parliament and called an early election to the assembly.

Yushchenko blamed Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, his estranged ally from the 2004 “Orange Revolution,” for the collapse of a coalition that emerged from that pro-Western upheaval which swept him to power.

“I am convinced, deeply convinced that the democratic coalition was ruined by one thing alone — human ambition. The ambition of one person,” he said in his address, shown on television while he was making a visit to Italy.

He gave no date for the election, the third in as many years in the ex-Soviet state gripped by political turmoil since the mass protests of 2004. The constitution provides for an election to take place no more than 60 days after dissolution — making December 7 a possible date.

Differences between the president and prime minister focus on a longstanding debate over how to divide up powers in Ukraine and Yushchenko’s allegations that Tymoshenko has been too soft on Russia in its conflict with Georgia.

I believe a wise man toild the readers here to watch the Ukraine for trouble after the Georgia thing.  It is far from over in the Ukraine and the “New Cold War ” will most likely begion in this region.

News Flash: The Georgia Invasion Is Over!

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has ordered an end to military operations against Georgia, the Kremlin says.

He told officials he had taken the decision to end the campaign after restoring security for civilians and peacekeepers in South Ossetia.

However, Russia has been highly critical of Georgia’s leadership, and there were no signs of imminent talks.

Before the announcement, there were fresh reports of Russian warplanes bombing the Georgian town of Gori.

Impeachment Is In The Air

Not only is Bush facing hearings on his possible impechment but his butt buddy in Pakistan is about to face the same fate.

Pakistan’s governing coaltion is set to finalise charges aimed at impeaching Pervez Musharraf, the country’s president.

Provincial lawmakers were also set to begin tabling resolutions on Monday calling on Musharraf to step down or face impeachment.

Musharraf’s spokesman, however, said he will not resign, regardless of the mounting cases against him.

“There is no reason that he should resign. Everything they are saying is false, so why should he resign?” Rashid Qureshi said.

Pakistan’s national assembly, or lower house of parliament, is also due to convene later on Monday, ahead of the filing of the impeachment charges against the former general.

Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999, but his rivals swept elections in February to set up a new government.

No president has been impeached in Pakistan’s turbulent 61-year history. The coalition claims it can get the two-thirds majority required in a joint sitting of both houses in parliament to strip Musharraf of the presidency.

Although Musharraf’s allies dispute that and have urged the longtime US ally to fight impeachment, they have advised the president against using his authority to dismiss parliament and the prime minister.

The coalition is trying to give Musharraf time to quit without facing the humiliation of impeachment, while ramping up the pressure with expected “no-confidence” motions in the four provincial assemblies, media reports said.