CNN is reporting that a group of economists are saying just that.
The end of the recession is in sight, according to a new survey of leading economists.While the economy is showing signs of stabilizing, the recovery will be more moderate than is typical following a severe downturn, said the National Association for Business Economics Outlook in a report released Wednesday.
The panel of 45 economists said it expects economic growth will rebound in the second half of 2009.
“The good news is that the NABE panel expects economic growth to turn positive in the second half of this year, with the pace of job losses narrowing sharply over the remainder of this year and employment turning up in early 2010,” said NABE president Chris Varvares in a written statement.
Almost three out of four survey respondents expect the recession will end by the third quarter of 2009, the report said.
But 19% predicted that a turnaround won’t come until the fourth quarter, and 7% said it may not come until early 2010. None of the panelists expected the recession to continue past the first quarter of next year.
I think that the indicators do not illustrate this optimism. This report came out just one day after the Consumer Confidence Index which showed that the consumers were becoming more confident. The survey is of 5000 households, apparently they ask only those that are stable and thriving.
Businesses are struggling….Staples losses business…..Costco has falling sales and has to cut back….and the list can go on and on…..businesses are suffering because NO ONE is spending…where is the dang confidence there? And then there are the “real” people that make the economy run…the average consumer, who are facing unemployment, foreclosures, growning credit debt, and so on……just take a moment and think about everything you have heard or read in the last month …….Now, are you optimistic?
Even the ticket prices for the Obama fundraising visit to Beverly Hills had to be discounted to sell…….are you still optimistic?
This is just another attempt to fuel the market, in my opinion. I do not see too much validity in anything these guys have said….and I look at it from a person struggling in the economy….I do not see too much improving in my economic life by the end of 2009.
For a week or more I have been seeing an ad on the tube urging me to urge my Congressional team to support and pass the Waxman-Markey Bill. At first I was not sure what it was but I did a little research and found my answer. It is the new climate change bill.
The new Climate Change Bill is working its way through the Congress at its usual slow pace, but is it the answer to the problem?
The bill would require polluters to obtain “allowances” — permits allowing them to emit a given amount of a greenhouse gas such as carbon dioxide or methane. This bill would put a price on them.
To satisfy Democrats from states with coal mines or heavy industry that would be hit hard, committee leaders dropped their target for emissions reductions by 2020, from 20 percent to 17 percent. And they agreed that, instead of all credits being sold to the highest bidder, 85 percent would be given away.
The Green Party has responded to the proposal:
Greens have criticized emissions trading (‘cap and trade’), calling it a concession to polluting industries that will impede efforts to curb global warming. In many instances, emissions trading encourages greenhouse gas emissions, since companies with low pollution will be able to sell their conservation credits to the highest bidders, giving major polluters a license to maintain or increase pollution levels. Party leaders called emissions trading schemes like the Waxman-Markey “American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009″ a capitulation to polluting industries.
“Democratic leaders in the US House are planning to give away 85% of the greenhouse gas emission credits. Giveaways bypass the trading and auction strategies that cap and trade advocates have promoted as a free market solution. Such allowances are a signal that Congress is more willing to satisfy industry demands and ‘grandfather’ polluters than to demand the necessary extensive reductions,” said Tony Gronowicz, political historian and 2005 New York City Green Party mayoral candidate.
The whole idea of the cap and trade was to make those pay for the emissions they produce that in turn are damaging the planet. Looks like that will be just another pipedream of actually doing something constructive to protect the planet.
We have all heard the report that the Democratic club was booted off the campus of Liberty University. As always the is another side to the story.
Jerry Falwell, Jr has respoinded to all the reports:
“Apparently many journalists do not let the facts get in the way of a juicy, agenda-driven story,” wrote Jerry Falwell, Jr., chancellor and president of the Lynchburg, Va.-based Christian school, in an Op-Ed released to the media Monday.
“The University has not banned Democrats from campus. Nor has the Democrat club been banned from meeting. And, never has the University or its officials said that a person cannot be a Christian and a Democrat. Sorry for those who want to run with these titillating soundbites, but these are the facts,” he added.
According to Falwell, whose father founded LU in 1971, Democratic clubs have existed at Liberty University over the last several decades but as unofficial student clubs not endorsed by the school.
Then, last fall, the College Democrats asked the university to officially recognize their club, thus granting them permission to use Liberty University’s name, hold public events on campus, and receive a small financial subsidy that only officially recognized clubs are eligible for.
To be recognized, however, Liberty asked the club to insert two clauses into their constitution – one stating that they are a pro-life organization and the other that they support the traditional view of marriage.
So the club was not banned it was kinda like being de-certified.